BC ECONOMY
Saved by @Alex1Powell

Lots of requests for a "step-by-step" guide to where we are with the EU-UK negotiations.

So here you go - short thread summarising the essential context & key points / issues:

 1) UK formally left EU in January 2020 but entered a "transition period" during which nothing very much changed: meant to give time for negotiations over future EU-UK relationship in fields like trade and security; based on "Political Declaration" as agreed by Johnson Government
2) Political Declaration envisaged only distant EU-UK relationship: partly logical consequence of Theresa May's longstanding "red lines" on free movement etc; but also result of renewed political preference, by Johnson Government, for even more extreme "clean break Brexit"
3) But almost immediately after UK withdrawal, Johnson Government changed the goalposts in ways that can only be described as cynical, untrustworthy and reckless. Started by tearing up large parts of Political Declaration: even its distant ties were no longer distant enough...
4) ... & continued with new red lines / fresh demands reflecting Johnson's (frankly tedious) belief that UK should "have its cake and eat it". So: back to square one - yet UK refused extension to transition period, to give more time for negotiations - even after onset of pandemic
5) ... & further problems arose after Johnson's direct and explicit plans to breach the agreement, already reached with the EU, for managing the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Widely regarded as dangerous attempt to use stability / peace in NI as leverage in talks.
6) Against that messy backdrop, talks have gotten bogged down in series of specific issues. Important to stress: none of these are at all new; it's been like this, again and again and again, for many months already! 3 issues have proved particularly difficult.
7) First, the level playing field, ie guarantees that UK will not engage in unfair competition, by slashing standards in fields like state subsidies, employment, environment etc. EU says they are essential. UK says "just trust us, we won't do it". EU wants it more concrete thanks
8) Secondly, governance and dispute settlement, ie how to manage relations and put things right when they go wrong. EU wants power of rapid response if UK breaches obligations - hardly surprising, especially given Johnson's breach of NI agreement just months after signing it...
9) Thirdly, fisheries: EU wants stable agreement on access by EU fleets to UK waters, directly linked to terms for access by UK suppliers to latter's primary market, ie the EU itself. As we know: an issue whose political profile vastly outweighs its relative economic importance.
10) But beyond those specific points of disagreement, there's a more fundamental problem at work here. Put simply: UK just hasn't accepted consequences of its own choices. Johnson says "we've taken back control, now treat us as your sovereign equal". Whereas the EU replies:
11) In reality, the UK has given up control. It gave up its leadership in Europe to become a 3rd country. Now it has to strike bargains with the rest of the world: not just other mid-ranking powers; but also the superpowers & regional blocs. Which means compromises & obligations.
12) Even on most optimistic scenario, ie deal done & ready to apply from 1 Jan 2021, it would be so narrow and shallow that - for many purposes / sectors / actors - it would be virtually indistinguishable from having no deal at all. But that was always Johnson's clear preference
13) If there is no deal: in 2021 the UK will finally experience what it really means to have left the EU - and do so at the same time as we struggle also with the ongoing pandemic health & economic crisis. But again that would be the direct result of deliberate choices by Johnson
14) I don't subscribe to the "armageddon's coming" view of January 2021. We'll see how bad the short term disruption is. But in reality, Brexit will be a slow and painful maiming by many wounds: m/b-illions of increased costs, extra burdens, lost opportunities, frustrated hopes.
15) Even if a better deal comes along in due course, it will only mean costly & disruptive "two regulatory changes" that transition was designed to avoid. And of course: nothing can undo the damage Brexit & Tories have already done to the UK's reputation and fundamental interests

More from Economy

Fionna O'Leary, \U0001f56f\U0001f1ea\U0001f1fa
Fionna O'Leary, 🕯🇪🇺...
@fascinatorfun
What do a Tory Peer, Selwyn Gummer (Lord Chadlington), David Sumner ( Sumner Group Holdings) and the Sanchez Perez family (drugs money, laundered through Gold mines) have in common?

It’s another company-saving a £50 million PPE contract shaggy dog story

Connections, connections


What a start to the story

“A bulletproof truck trundled down the road in downtown Lima, guarded by 18 policeman
They were wearing body armour & wielding high velocity rifles

No-one was taking any chances
This was a Special delivery for Peruvian Prosecutor for an anti drug trial


That was in 2011, the same year that Lord Chadlington’s daughter got married in Chadlington to Henry Allsopp.

Who was there?
Yes Kirstie Allsopp of Location, location, location and all this Covid nonsense fame) is his sister

Camilla, his Godmother

Jeremy Hunt

Cameron


Well. Come on. Lord Chadlington had been chair of the local Witney Conservative Association. It’s only fair.

Hang on. Julian Wheatland, Director of SCL Group/ Cambridge Analytica had also been chair of Witney Conservative Association...and campaigned for his mate Cameron

Are we sure Julian Wheatland and his side kick Alexander Nix were not there too @JolyonMaugham ?

I mean. They move in the same North Oxford circles.
ECONOMY
Faith
Faith
@Sheffieldfaith
Took the 6 yo old out for some local lock down exercise on his bike. Park too busy to cycle through, so we did a loop on local roads because that's the only other option without driving somewhere. Here's how it went (a thread) @CycleSheffield @CyclewalkSCR @DameSarahStorey

The 6yo doesnt cycle in a complete straight line yet so one of us cycles abreast of him just in case. Lots of drivers waited patiently for a long time before overtaking slowly and safely. Thank you for this. Sudden accelerating engines make the 6yo less likely to stay straight.

Some drivers, sadly not an insignificant number, decided they needed to get past more quickly and more slowly than was safe. Where were they all going to and why the need to be so impatient? It's not like there is anything to get to quickly at the moment.

Drivers coming the other way were generally the biggest threat. The roads were double parked with people using the park (worst I have have ever seen) resulting in narrow road space. Drivers did not slow down to adjust to this or to us cycling alongside the 6yo.

One driver overtaking a parked car had to encroach on to our side of the road. Instead of waiting he pushed out and shook his head at us. Did he think we shouldn't be on the road with a small child or did he just think he had priority? Either way he was wrong.
ECONOMY
Advertisement
Stephen Fasenfeld \U0001f600
Stephen Fasenfeld 😀...
@fasenfeld
1. “Who Are Ireland’s Members Of The World Economic Forum Implementing The Great Reset In 2021 ? 🧵1/28

🕵️🔎 Politicians, Musicians, Clergy, Bankers, Journalists, Human Rights, Artificial Intelligence, Sustainability, Corporations & Agriculture


2. In previous threads I have looked at 🇮🇪 key players in the Trilateral Commission as well as 🇮🇪 people who have attended the Bilderberger meetings. I also looked at the 🇮🇪 in the Young Global Leaders which is a site run by the WEF. You will see a lot of crossover between them.

3. The purpose of this thread is to compile all the Irish members into one thread for ease of access and reading rather than having to dive through the WEF site. This is by no means definitive and I will be adding more over time when they pop out of the woodwork.

4. Ireland’s WEF members are drawn from all walks of life but can be split into 2 separate areas. The WEF calls the first category “people” and the 2nd one “agenda contributors”. In total Ireland has a minimum of 61 members. Some of the names will be familiar and others will not

5. In this thread I’m just going to concentrate on the 21 people (there are probably a lot more). There are also 40 “agenda contributors” which I will cover in a separate thread. The agenda contributors are those who write articles or do research for the WEF site.
ECONOMY
Jason Furman
Jason Furman
@jasonfurman
The argument for deficits & debt raising interest rates in the US is not increased credit risk, it is that interest rates are a function of economic fundamentals, flows & policy. Deficits/debt change those.

I can't tell if I'm agreeing or disagreeing with @jc_econ.


Increasing government spending or reducing taxes increases demand (or reduces saving). This raises the price of loanable funds or the interest rate.

In a dynamic context, more demand means a stronger economy, the central bank raises interest rates sooner, and long rates rise.

(As an aside, we are not close to the United States needing to worry about credit risk and the risks are more overstated than understated in most other advanced economies too. But credit risk is not always & everywhere irrelevant, just look at the UK in 1976 or Canada in 1994.)

Interest rates have fallen over the last 20 yrs while debt has risen. This does not necessarily mean that debt rising causes interest rates to fall. It could also mean that other things have happened at he same time that pushed down interest rates more than debt pushed them up.

The suspects for these "other things" include slower productivity growth, slower popln growth, higher inequality, less investment, etc. All of which either increase the supply of saving or reduce the demand for investment, reducing the equilibrium interest rate.
ECONOMY
\u4e00\u5e26\u4e00\u8def Mainlander \U0001f1e8\U0001f1f3 in \U0001f1ed\U0001f1f0
一带一路 Mainlander 🇨🇳 in ...
@InsulaeW
I really think people have a very short-sighted view of the city and its key role in decades to come for the economy of 🇨🇳. Every so often, people have a handful of misconceptions about the city's future because they lack of basics in strategy 👇


https://t.co/6wuRzXGkYZ The West propaganda seems to make people think we are cracking down on 🇭🇰 people because we no longer need them and we will inevitably suppress their rights. Every now and then, I talk with people in 🇭🇰 who think the Great Firewall will extend to 🇭🇰

🇺🇸-led liberal order is very strong to come across 🇭🇰 people and make them believe what they want. Brainwashed people don't think rationally and fall for the lies and propaganda. This guy is one among so many others I met in 🇭🇰 who told me the same thing, that the city is doomed

They couldn't be more ignorant ! Unfortunately they will end up leaving the city and missing out on incredible opportunities... But they don't know that nothing will eventually change after 2047 ? 🙃Let me explain you why

I bet even after 2047 🇭🇰 will still enjoy a high degree of autonomy and freedoms that its mainland counterpart can’t enjoy : an independent legal and financial system, English as one of the official language, an access to the West internet, its traditional medias, etc.
ECONOMY

You May Also Like

Suhas S. Hardutt
Suhas S. Hardutt
@HarduttSuhas
THE BATTLE OF SARAIGHAT (1671)

Lachit Borphukan's humiliation of Aurangzeb.

The battle of Saraighat was a naval engagement fought on the Brahmaputra river near Saraighat between the M0ghul empire and Ahom kingdom in 1671.

Guts, resolve and glory!

(Elaborate thread)


Koch was a state situated between the dominions of M0ghuls and Ahoms. For Ahoms, it was a buffer state for keeping M0ghul territorial expansions at bay.(1)

Times changed when the ruler of the Koch kingdom, Nara Narayana passed away in 1587 resulting in Koch being divided into 2. Western Koch was ruled by his son Lakshmi Narayan and the eastern Koch by his nephew, Raghudev.(2)

Lakshmi Narayan formed an alliance with M0ghuls after which he attacked Parikshit, son of Raghudev, in 1602. Parikshit Narayan was defeated while his brother Bali Narayan took refuge in the Ahom Kingdom.(3)

The M0ghuls used it as a pretext to invade Ahom kingdom. The first battle between them took place in 1615 leading to a series of engagements in which both sides had their shares of ups and downs resulting in a stalemate.(4)
ALL
Kate Julian
Kate Julian
@katejulian
1/ Something strange is happening with people’s sex lives. 20-somethings are having sex later and less frequently than previous generations. I spent several months digging into this for @theatlantic. https://t.co/5ehzmWY9wi


2/ This phenomenon—I’m calling it a Sex Recession—really surprised me. It seemed improbable in the age of Tinder, digital porn, and attitudes that are generally permissive and sex-positive.

3/ What’s happening isn’t exclusively American: Similar trends are being observed in other countries, including Japan, Australia, the U.K., Finland, and the Netherlands.


4/ One cause is obvious: Adults under 35 are less likely to be living with a partner than in recent decades, and more likely to be living with their parents—which, it’s safe to say, isn’t great for one’s sex life.

5/ But I also found other explanations, each with profound implications. The first, unsurprisingly, has to do with internet enticements. Netflix and other online entertainment may be substituting for sex.
SOCIETY
Advertisement
Khatvaanga
Khatvaanga
@khatvaanga
Starting my 2nd thread on Sringeri Parampara. This will cover the Jagadgurus after Sri Vidyaranya to Sri Shivabhinava Nrisimha Bharati.

It is really very tough to match the brilliance and achievements of Vidyaranya. After whom came 15 - Chandrashekara Bharati [1386-1389].

The next Acharya was Nrisimha Bharati [1389-1408]. Harihara raya found a town for this Acharya - Narasimhapuram. Acharya helped the king by guiding him in political affairs. He also initiated the kind with mahamantras for spiritual development.

Subsequent Acharyas were
15-Puroshottama Bharati [1408 - 1448]
16-Shankara Bharati[1448 - 1455]
17-Chandrasekhara Bharati II [1455 - 1464]
18- Nrisimha Bharati II [1464 - 1479]
19-Puroshottama Bharati II [1479 - 1517]

20-Ramachandra Bharati [1517 - 1560]. Sadashiva Raya was emporer of Vijayanagara during this time.
21-Nrisimha Bharati III [1560 - 1573]
22-Nrisimha Bharati IV [1573 - 1576]
23-Nrisimha Bharati V [1576 - 1600]

24-Abhinava Nrisimha Bharati [1600-1623]. When he visited Malahanikareswara temple for first time he noticed there was no Vinayaka there so he took piece of turmeric and drew outline of Ganesha on a pillar and offered puja.
ALL
Vibhu Vashisth
Vibhu Vashisth
@VIBHU_Tweet
Did you know?

When Saudi Arabia's King visited India in 1955, PM Nehru ordered all the Hindu Temples and Idols of Hindu Deities that came in Saudi King's way to be covered up.
Our temples are the architectural marvels in their own league.


Each of our temples tells the story of our rich history and cultural heritage. Was Nehru that ashamed of his own nation's heritage that he had to cover them up or there was some other reason? The answer would be best known to him only.

PM Nehru invited the then Saudi King Saud bin Abdul Aziz to India who accepted the invitation and planned a 17 day long official visit to India in 1955. Saudi King had brought a large delegation with him and he had to visit various Indian cities like Mumbai, Hyderabad, Agra,


Aligarh, Shimla, Mysore and Varanasi. However, when Saudi King reached Varanasi, Nehru ordered to cover all the temples and Idols with curtains that came in the way of the Royal Convoy. During his stay in Varanasi, Govt buildings were painted with the words "Kalma Tayyiba".


'Kalma Tayyiba' means 'There is not God but only Allah and Mohammed is his messenger'. In addition to it, Pooja and Aartis were also stopped at temples. I can call it the appeasement politics of the highest order and Nehru was indeed the greatest appeaser of all times.
ALL
\uc2e0\ub150\uc758\uc0ac\ub098\uc774
신념의사나이...
@Belposto_korea
The RV and the Redemption Funds.

ALL Exchanged Currencies as well as all Zim Redemption funds will be placed in the accounts they set up in the Quantum Financial System./1

Absolutely none of these funds will be placed in a Bank at the redemption appointment. Bank computers cannot be programmed to transfer Digital Gold Certificates./2

The QFS can and will transplant funds into a bank account as has been explained earlier,/3

so a person can transfer funds to their own bank account but the desirability will become less and less as the banks go into receivership and their customer’s deposits are confiscated to avoid the Bank’s demise./4

Which bank can compete with the QFS when the QFS is free, secure, private, and stable? One of the major problems in the transition will be the use of Debit Cards for merchant purchases. Will VISA or Mastercard be available?/5
FINANCE