Thread - How to spot a potential multibagger

Multiple fundamental parameters however we cannot be rigid on any of these parameters.

Be flexible to interpret things from bigger picture point of view.

Model Portfolio 3

Time Horizon 3 years or earlier ~ Depends on if the stock performs significantly well in faster time. Review of business performance important every quarter.

This portfolio is suitable for aggressive investors who believe in risk taking and look for growth

Name %allocation

~ Laurus Labs 15%
~ Balaji Amines 15%
~ Deepak Nitrite 15%
~ Kopran 10%
~ Pokarna 10%
~ Eveready 10%
~ Dynpro 10%
~ Manorama 5%
~ Adani Enterprises 5%
~ SHIL 5%

~ Laurus Labs
~ Kopran

My top two picks in pharma sector are Laurus Lab and Kopran.

These have good earnings predictability, growth visibility & significant undervaluation. Growing from small to medium and to big.

Earnings can grow and valuations multiple can grow accordingly.

~ Balaji Amines
~ Deepak Nitrite
~ Dynpro

These three are my top picks in Chemicals.

These have good earnings predictability, growth visibility & significant undervaluation. Growing from small to medium and to big.

Earnings can grow and valuations multiple can grow accordingly

~ Pokarna
~ Eveready
~ SHIL

These three are my top picks in Home Consumption.

These have good earnings predictability, growth visibility & significant undervaluation. Growing from small to medium and to big.

Earnings can grow and valuations multiple can grow accordingly.

Thread - How to spot a potential multibagger

Multiple fundamental parameters however we cannot be rigid on any of these parameters.

Be flexible to interpret things from bigger picture point of view.

Input 1 ~ No doubt on business survival

Come whatever event (health crisis, economic bubbles, economic recessions, political events, etc.), there should not be any doubt on business survival.

Earlier it used to be only food companies into this category, but now there are many.

Input 2 ~ Visible & sustainable growth potential

At any point of time, we can think with a certain common sense approach that if management wants, there can be a sustainable growth at any point of time.

Obviously this growth may come thru innovation, optimization, etc.

Input 3 ~ Management has vision towards growth

Management should be forward looking, should be able to read into future to build right growth avenues, should be considerate towards every stakeholder.

In addition management should be ethical & should have good social image too.

Input 4 ~ Promoter stake>50%

There should be a reasonable skin in the game from promoter.

If in case there is a low promoter stake, then promoter should increase stake at every possible opportunity.

Also pledging should either be zero or minimal.

Jubilant Bhartia group gonna be one of the biggest group that has all the potential to overtake marketcaps of many other groups.

Listed
~ Jub Foodworks
~ Jub Pharmova
~ Jub Ingrevia
~ Jub Industries

May list in future
~ Jub Enpro
~ Jub Motorworks
~ Jub Consumer

WatchOut !!

#StockMarket - While there are #Multibaggers there can be #Multifailures as well. Here is a thread on key mistakes that may happen during the journey. I have been thru all these mistakes myself.....

1. Leverage can be key mistake that usually happen either when we get carried away in euphoria or are finding shortcuts during early part of journey. Even if you need to take leverage, it should be based on your net worth, risk profile and in right stocks.
#NoShortcuts

2. Selling too early just because it has run up too much too fast. Till there is a visibility of business potential and company growth path, one should ride the growth as maximum as possible.
#StayPut

3. Buying too late just because of noise / momentum and fear of missing out. Never ignore the valuations, business potential and company fundamentals while going with any suggestions. Always do your own due diligence.
#CutTheNoise

4. Buying too big too early and then selling while patience is being tested. Build the position towards upside especially for any new stock finding. Build onto the conviction with a visible growth in numbers.

Peter Lynch is a great investment manager of all time. He is famous for introduction of PEG. (P/E growth)

According to Mr. Lynch the faster the company grows, the higher the P/E ratio you should pay for that company

Here is a Thread - Peter Lynch thoughts & my interpretations.

1. Investing is fun, exciting & dangerous if you don’t do any work

Fun becoz we tend to learn so many things

Exciting becoz it give great moments of celebration because of unimaginable wealth

Dangerous becoz it can be addictive due to greed & people may start finding shortcuts

2. You can outperform the experts if you use your edge by investing in companies or industries you already understand.

Study businesses, apply common sense and invest into something which you understand.

No need to adventure & no need to be part of anything or everything.

3. The stock market has come to be dominated by a herd of professional investors. You can beat the market by ignoring the herd.

Stay away from noise & crowd to come out as a winner.

4. Behind every stock is a company. Find out what it’s doing

The underlying entity of a stock is business. Choose to ignore everything else, but never ignore to study business.

Company includes few more things in addition to business like management, etc.

1/10

This is a really tough problem to resolve, especially if the massive increase in inflows from the trade and financial accounts are sustained, as I expect they will be well into 2021.

Clearly the PBoC would like to see the RMB gradually...

2/10

strengthen. This would keep financial markets stable and promote rebalancing, but the RMB has already strengthened a lot, and this puts unwanted pressure on exporters and “international circulation”.

Although PBoC reserves have been flat, other state-controlled Chinese...

3/10

banks have bought large amounts of dollars, but this is expensive. If these banks have half a trillion dollars of exposure, for example, they are losing at least $15-17 billion annually on negative carry, plus another $20-30 billion just this year from the rise of the RMB.

4/10

Beijing seems also to be trying other measures to slow the rise. The regulators are relaxing capital controls on outflows. In mid October the PBoC cut to zero the reserve requirement ratio for banks doing FX forward trading. This requirement was created in 2018 to reduce...

5/10

downward pressure on the RMB. In late October it suspended the counter-cyclical factor in RMB fixing, which was introduced in 2017 also to reduce downward currency pressure. But in both cases while the RMB dropped a few pips on the news, it quickly resumed its upward climb.

1/x The market continues to try & shake out weak hands from overextended positioning by both HF & Retail...After a strong Vanna run up overnight, as expected, retail exuberance exploded on the open in the form of retail call buying, this fragility, paired w/a)Mean reverting flows

2/x from pinned Index Vol b) well documented, risk parity rebalancing flows & c) selling flows tied to bank EOY liquidity constraints. In combination, these flows have together have amounted to substantive selling pressures, strong enough to counteract the positive vanna/ charm

3/x flows, & point to continued likely index RVol an IVol pinning...Historically, the week of quarterly OpEx markets are notoriously volatile intraday, but also mean reverting like we saw today. I think it is fair to expect continued IVol compression & more of the same underlying

4/x chop. Vanna/Charm flows will lose their oomph after Wed 12/16 vixperation morning. There’s a window of weakness which I’ve spoken to for a month that falls 12/16-12/23. That could open a brief window that could lead to revaluation of the real risk & short interest,post 1/6...

5/x but the overwhelming 10k 🦍 of index Vol compression should still hold any correction in time & price in check in the shortterm and it’ll be hard to have anything blow up too bad in SPX land given how cheap & abundant Xmas Vol is 12/23-12/24. NTM, a stim deal & potential Fed

I’m focused on building an American free market economy protecting free speech.

Allowing the businesses with the highest creativity & best end user experience to compete.

Driving prices low, quality and service high, and putting American’s first.

Made in America!

Cont’d..

Why do we track institutional footprints? 🐘 (Thread)

Large institutions like mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, insurance companies, trusts, etc. amount for over 75% of all volume. These institutions move the market, not you and I.

It makes sense that if these guys are moving the markets, we would ideally want to buy the same stocks they are buying, but before they buy them? Right?

So, let’s get a clear understanding of how and why this is so important and what this might look like behind the scenes.

For starters, let’s discuss what we mean by a large institution. In this case, we are referring to the many funds, pensions, trusts, etc. that are responsible for managing tens, if not hundreds of billions of dollars.

Hence, they easily attract and can afford to retain the planet’s top talent, not to mention, their research budgets are enormous.

They have access to information and resources that the retail crowd simply does not, and if they did, it would likely be extremely unaffordable.