Thoughts on #bitcoin price here in a thread

TL;DR: $BTC is caught between a tug of war of market manipulation by #tether, pushing price on low volume on one hand and undeniable fundamental asset price inflation driven by the Fed’s printing on the other.

1/ $BTC is up 22% in 5 days on ever falling, low volume in holiday trading. During this time it has defied every sensible signal. Leveraged funding is unsustainably high, futures are as far in contango as I can remember.
2/ #tether has printed $400m during the holidays, implying that either huge (and I mean HUGE) institutional investors have wired real Dollars over the period when they aren’t in the office or, as we all know it to be true: they are printing freely out of thin air.
3/ With these $USDT and the help of all the connected #tether exchanges price has been painted upwards without resistance. The manipulation, to any experienced market participant, is so obvious it hurts.
4/ However, it is absolutely true that #bitcoin, along with every other asset in the world is acting as a vacuum for the central bank liquidity unleashed on markets. It is just as ridiculous to deny this perfectly legitimate effect as to say #tether is not manipulating prices
5/ That is what makes trading this market exceedingly difficult in the short term. You know (it’s as certain as #Ripple being a scam) there is one party manipulating prices who could simply pull the rug at some point so you want to be cautious,
6/ but you also know that this manipulation (different from 2017) does not happen in isolation - there are strong legitimate drivers that are pushing $BTC higher as well. Therefore, you are kind of inclined to ignore the high funding and low volume pump to still be leveraged long
7/ The key question then becomes: what should we expect and what is actually going on? This is my theory (I remind you - I know nothing!):

#Tether seized the moment when there was no volume to speak of in order to achieve three things.
8/ Firstly, the pump in #bitcoin allows the ‘real world’ to quickly lose sight of the fact the 3rd largest #crypto has been shown to be a scam ( $XRP; Side point: They will still reply to the SEC suit; don’t believe their lies).
9/ Secondly, the fundamental drivers that might make institutions want to get into #bitcoin (which doubtless exits) are the best chance to spark some kind of institutional FOMO. Looking at $USDT prints, google trends and generally low levels of
10/ euphoria, so far it would seem that (aside from Saylor) #tether has had to do most of the hard lifting on their own. This pump over the holidays, while leveraged funds are record short on CME futures may be the perfect opportunity to finally get this institutional FOMO going
11/ Thirdly, the break of $20k is very important to keep the narrative going and #tether knows the later it gets re-tested, the more likely it is to hold. So pumping the price further away from it is a prudent thing to do.
12/ In terms of expectation, I would assume that when traditional markets re-open, we could first see a short squeeze from CME leveraged funds. Once that is done, it will take a correction to flush out funding / leverage from #crypto exchanges which is the opposite of the CME
End/ So we could see a volatile blow off top that finally brings the correction to the $20-25k levels afterwards.

Conundrum: it would likely not be the end as long as the Fed keeps printing

Mind you - this is personal speculation. This is not advice. I don’t know more than you

More from Crypto

Michael Pettis @michaelxpettis argues that it is not always obvious who (China or the U.S.) adjusts best to "turbulent changes."
Bitcoin answers that question.
Thread:


World economies currently suffer four major redistribution challenges:
The most important is increasing government stealth use of the monetary system to confiscate assets from productive actors.
/2

That process is exacerbated by "Cantillon Effect" transfers to interest groups close to government ("the entitled class," public sector workers, the medical industrial complex, academia, etc....), which is destroying much of that wealth /3

The shadow nature (see Keynes) of government inflation makes the process unidentifiable, un-addressable and undemocratic.
The biggest victims (America's poorly educated young) are unequipped to counter generational confiscation tactics of today's wily senior beneficiaries. /4

Government control of the numéraire in key economic statistics (GDP, inflation, etc...) makes it impossible for economic actors to measure progress and liabilities. /5

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MDZS is laden with buddhist references. As a South Asian person, and history buff, it is so interesting to see how Buddhism, which originated from India, migrated, flourished & changed in the context of China. Here's some research (🙏🏼 @starkjeon for CN insight + citations)

1. LWJ’s sword Bichen ‘is likely an abbreviation for the term 躲避红尘 (duǒ bì hóng chén), which can be translated as such: 躲避: shunning or hiding away from 红尘 (worldly affairs; which is a buddhist teaching.) (
https://t.co/zF65W3roJe) (abbrev. TWX)

2. Sandu (三 毒), Jiang Cheng’s sword, refers to the three poisons (triviṣa) in Buddhism; desire (kāma-taṇhā), delusion (bhava-taṇhā) and hatred (vibhava-taṇhā).

These 3 poisons represent the roots of craving (tanha) and are the cause of Dukkha (suffering, pain) and thus result in rebirth.

Interesting that MXTX used this name for one of the characters who suffers, arguably, the worst of these three emotions.

3. The Qian kun purse “乾坤袋 (qián kūn dài) – can be called “Heaven and Earth” Pouch. In Buddhism, Maitreya (मैत्रेय) owns this to store items. It was believed that there was a mythical space inside the bag that could absorb the world.” (TWX)
Nano Course On Python For Trading
==========================
Module 1

Python makes it very easy to analyze and visualize time series data when you’re a beginner. It's easier when you don't have to install python on your PC (that's why it's a nano course, you'll learn python...

... on the go). You will not be required to install python in your PC but you will be using an amazing python editor, Google Colab Visit
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This course is for anyone out there who is confused, frustrated, and just wants this python/finance thing to work!

In Module 1 of this Nano course, we will learn about :

# Using Google Colab
# Importing libraries
# Making a Random Time Series of Black Field Research Stock (fictional)

# Using Google Colab

Intro link is here on YT: https://t.co/MqMSDBaQri

Create a new Notebook at https://t.co/EZt0agsdlV and name it AnythingOfYourChoice.ipynb

You got your notebook ready and now the game is on!
You can add code in these cells and add as many cells as you want

# Importing Libraries

Imports are pretty standard, with a few exceptions.
For the most part, you can import your libraries by running the import.
Type this in the first cell you see. You need not worry about what each of these does, we will understand it later.