What were the big energy and climate surprises of the Trump era? Four years ago, I described the most plausible arc for US climate policy under Trump (it was a boring, safe bet) but expected there'd be unexpected developments too. So how about a look back? https://t.co/1Valz4eTEg

1) The pandemic was a huge surprise, obviously, though maybe it's too early to say how that will affect the energy/climate landscape. So far, it’s put a brake on U.S. fracking and induced Europe to pledge staggering sums on hydrogen. Maybe global CO2 emissions have peaked, idk.
2) The growth of battery storage on the US grid has, I think, been a surprise. This interview with @jburwen does a nice job of laying out the truly staggering changes in the storage landscape since 2015, driven by falling costs and some key policy changes. https://t.co/VtIFsTkOPj
3) The impact of the IPCC report on 1.5°C was surprising to me. I often wondered what'd happen once it became clear that the world was unlikely to stay below 2°C. Instead, the climate community and world leaders rallied around an even more aggressive, harder to hit target!
4) It was not obvious that Trump's retreat from climate action would spur states, cities, companies, other nations to make even more aggressive net zero pledges of their own. But that’s what happened—those pledges have really proliferated at a scale that’s been surprising to me.
5) How about the recent energy bill? I’d written a fair bit about how things like carbon capture and HFC cuts had big bipartisan support (e.g. https://t.co/VWiq4o2BO3) , but I wouldn't have predicted Congress to increase energy R&D as massively over the last 4 years as they did.
This thread was inspired by a nice @mattyglesias post on predictions — few people ever make specific predictions and then go back to see if they were right/wrong. More people probably should! (I didn’t, so my retrospective is obviously pretty squishy.) https://t.co/t6vzf3R1Df
Anyway, what were your big climate/energy surprises from the last four years?
This is a really good one. Will be interesting to see how this plays out as the pandemic recedes, whenever that might be: https://t.co/fP0LEPKaAO
Yeah this chart really underscores the energy R&D surprise. In 2017, plenty of folks thought Congress would probably reject Trump's deep proposed cuts to the Energy Department. Not many predicted that energy research spending would rise ~20% in four years: https://t.co/U3QinSibHw

More from Climate change

The UK government's climate advisory body is launching its next carbon budget: basically, outlining what the UK can emit between 2033 and 2037. It's a big deal - launch video starting right now.
Watch along:


Will tweet along snippets. Pretty relevant to...............everything, really. #UKCarbonBudget

"Instead of being just a budget, it's a pathway we have to tread to reach net zero in 2050" @lorddeben

Just like quite a few other modelling exercises, CCC use a spectrum between behaviour change and between technological change. #UKCarbonBudget.

Both = best (just like @AEMO_Media's Step Change scenario in their ISP)


'Balanced' is what they use for their recs. "We're doing 60% of the emissions reductions in the first 15 years, and then 40% in the next".

The slinky kitty curve....good to see. No evidence of delaying action to Dec 29 2049, here. #UKCarbonBudget


"By front loading, we're minimising the UK's contribution to cumulative emissions" - really important point. A slow path to net zero - more climate harm than a fast one. #UKCarbonBudget

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