Lets start. This is going to be a long tweet. Please read seriously, your option journey will travel serious distance.

We will use 40500CE and BNF chart to get hold of the things.

Below is 1min chart of 40500CE weekly from 9/9/22 onwards. This week started from 9/9/22(Friday). This CE opened at 430 and hit a high of 499 at 10.35 AM.

The Corresponding level on BNF on 9/9/22 were BNF opened at 40601 and hit a high of 40753 at 10.38 AM.

Then on 12/9/22 BNF crossed 40753 and hit a high of 40770 at 12.40 PM (see the arrow in chart).

At the same time 40500CE hit a intraday high of 458 at 12.40 PM(see the arrow on chart).

Means BNF made new high by 20 points while this CE still fell short by 40 points approx.

So we can say that the chances of BNF moving higher is lower, reason being ITM CE is not making new high on Monday. (Forget - THEETA , GAMMA, MEETA----STAY WITH ME)

Now on 13/9, We opened gap up and made a new high of 40915 at 9.46 AM and then again this high was crossed at 2.47 PM at 40977. (Arrow dekho).

At same time , this CE made a high of 517 at 9.45 AM and then new high of 545 at 2.47 PM.

Lets start !!!

On Saturday we got surprised announcement of Excise Cut !!

Lets see how the market are placed

As per EOD data, on weekly chain (26/5 expiry)Top 10 CE OI is standing at Rs 254,154,9742/- and top 10 PE OI is standing at Rs 422,770,9945/-. On the face of it, looks like PE value is almost double of CE OI. But here one has to understand that BNF was up 1000 points on Friday

and by nature CE OI will be less. Now going one step further , we will see if BNF starts to crack above 34500, then CE writer to the tune of Rs 1,44,92,96,512/- will be in trouble and above 34800 the figure goes to Rs 2,21,63,59,860/-. Means almost 90% of top 10 CE OI will be

trapped. On PE side the writer will be trapped below 34200 only to the tune of Rs 3,06,01,91,770.00 .

Lets concentrate more on CE side due to AFTER MARKET NEWS !!.

We noticed " OI IMBALANCE BETWEEN CE AND PE " last week(TuesdaY) which exploded on Thursday on

downside and then BNF DID DHAARAMMMM !!!. Here we are seeing the exact opposite scenario. The reason for expecting good upmove on upside is that there is literally NO WRITING IN PE above 34500 and if BNF starts to travel above 34500, then the CE seller will be in loss and

Nifty Nov 18000CE is above monthly Avwap of 260 now. Lets analyse this CE in detail. As much as we can. Lets start.

This is the Monthly OC with special emphasis on 18000CE

We will start analysis the details on hourly basis from 8/11(almost one week) when this call was trading around 300. Lets see what was happening on 8/11 EOD

Posting 18000CE OC from 11/11 and 12/11 EOD

On 8/11, this CE closed at 307 and on 12/11(ydy), it closed at 262 but in between loads of OI got build in this CE to the tune of 6lk contracts.

As per One of my data analysis system they are all short with average of 216 and now if NF starts to run up and crosses 18200,

Lets See the status of Nifty and Bank Nifty and its major stock. The stock which moves both the index. We will use AVWAP across time frame to derive whether stock is weak or strong. We will use Quaterly AVWAP/Monthly AVWAP/Yearly AVWAP and March 20 AVWAP.

BNF made a high of 34800 today and then fell to 34490 towards the end. A fall of 300 points from the top. Every fall and rise are lead by few stocks and today the fall was lead by NIFTY and in NIFTY ,RELIANCE was the villian. Generally whenever Nifty will fall it will take other

down also. So BNF fell today under the weight of Reliance. Now some data churning of this fall.

If you will see the OC of BNF weekly, there was across the board PE writing while there was reduction in CE OI even after this steep fall from the high.

Lets see what happened to 34300 CE during this fall. This is the nearest ITM on closing basis today.

See in below PIC the price of 34300CE is falling and OI is also falling. Fall in OI with rise in Price is bullish for the option, where as fall in OI with fall in price means

smart money getting out at cheap cost. The marked four boxes will reveal a big story in itself. I really dont know what will happen tomorrow neither interested to know also. Carrying ZERO position makes life easy. But seeing EOD data of BNF, i wont be bearish on BNF

The AVWAP from weekly high on this CE is at 370 and we closed around 358 today. Nothing much. But if this CE trades above 370 tomorrow , i will like to participate in upmove rather than downmove.

Option Chain is janampatri of CE and PE activity in the market. On a day when BNF moved 750 points we expect huge CE unwinding and good PE writing across the board. It becomes more important when the rally is coming from almost good low and against all round bearish view.

Today weekly OC is showing a sign of COMPLEXITY among the CE writer. Top 10 CE writer holds value to the tune of Rs 237,756,1591/- while PE writing hold value to the tune of Rs 145,980,0081/-. So in top 10 OI , writing in CE is more than PE . And this is after 750 points upmove.

This is quite surprising. It means the CE seller expect market to had made temp top today and dont expect the CE to hit new high tomorrow above today high. This is super conviction on their part. So what may happen tomorrow??? Either they win with their conviction or loose out.

Yehi toh !! Kya toh BNF upar jayga ya niche. But there in lies some catch, we will move one by one. The attached picture shows you that if BNF travels above 34500 tomorrow then these Rs 188,199,0251/- will be trapped and above 34700 the value goes up to Rs 237,756,1591/-

These values are simply huge. CE and PE writer provides balance to the market. The huge Expiry moves happens (where Rs 20 option becomes Rs 100-200) because of this imbalance. Today EOD data is already showing that imbalance for CE writer. Any sustainable upmove with CE

BNF made a low of 33606 and high of 34815 in this weekly expiry. On all three days it closed below VWAP. Also on all three days its closing very near to 34200 levels. U can see all these levels in below picture.

We all know by now that 34000-34800 is the range of BNF for last few days and hence people shorting OTM options outside this range will make money. Lets dig a bit deep more.

Now see the things one by one

On 20/5/22 this strangle closed at 908 with OI value of Rs 1.22 ,

then on 23/5/22 this strangle closed at 790 with OI value of Rs .80 and finally today it closed at 462 with OI value of Rs 2.09.

This strangle holds the maximum OI in the chain with support and resistance marked which gives us a range of 33538-34962 for this expiry. Frankly

speaking this straddle looks very safe and personally I wont think that todays seller of this strangle will panick ever. Now few more data points, since the start of this weekly expiry Pain points below 34100 is constantly decreasing.

On 20/5 break of this PE was making Rs 3,06,01,91,770.00 in danger and then it reduced to Rs 2,81,17,02,460.00 on 23/5/22 and today its at 2,75,72,14,637.50 . This gives us a idea that PE seller are not confident on their position and hence getting out gradually.

There are few days and expiry where BNF is sitting time bomb. Actually it becomes difficult to understand whether the Option Seller are Complacent or Cautious. Both the words have complete opposite meaning. Let me explain the situation for tomorrow.

BNF closed at 32800 today

BNF closed at 32800 today and the price of 32800 straddle is 370 points only. Means a range of 32800-370 = 32430 on lower side & 32800+370 = 33170 on higher side.

This 32800 straddle started the day at 453 points and ended at 370 points, a decay of only 80 points during the day

32500 PE is trading at Rs 92/- and 33100 CE is trading at Rs 66/-, so basically a small gap of 250-300 points tomorrow can take these CE/PE writer in panick at open. The only good thing in these options is small OI. The OI is too small in comparision to last few expiries.

So difficult to say whether these writer are Cautious or Complacent. Going by the recent trends, 300 points gap is now common in BNF and with such small premium, God knows which side camel will sit.

Not holding any position but can we see the repeat of last THURSDAY ??

Never expected this much response. 51k view in 24 hours. Thanks @vivbajaj sirji for providing this opportunity to share my small knowledge in your awesome platform . God is kind to me 🙏🙏🙏

Lets see what happened on HDFC on 4/4/22 when it opened 10% gap up on merger news.

At EOD price rose by 9.36% while OI fell by 4.90%. Refer below table on OI and Price Interpretation. It was a clear case of smart money using the upmove to exit the trade

Below is the 15m chart of HDFC on 4/4/22. Yellow line is VWAP line . You can see after 11.00 AM the stock traded below VWAP through out the day. And if you are a smart trader, u know the game has been set there only. Also see the volume on selling side throughout the day in lower

panel.

Actually talking on lay man terms....Business of HDFC is giving home loan and other loans. They were buying money from Bond market or other resources at 5-6% minimum rate and then lending those money to retail client at 1-2% addl profit.

After merger, they will get dirt cheap Savings money of retailer at 2-3% rate, so the money which they was getting at 5-6% is now getting at 2-3%. So straightway decrease in cost to the extent of minimum 30-45%.

Still both the stocks getting sold !!!

Really something is wrong somewhere. And I want to be wrong here, but prices are speaking something bad is cooking.

PS: I did the layman merger advantage of HDFC/HDFCBank as a panwala knowledge

Plz go through these slides ONE BY ONE. You can ask geniune questions with chart, will try to reply by tomorrow.

Posting the original PPT on my telegram channel

https://t.co/QjQMoLPNgB

Lets do today EOD data analysis.

We will do in it a 4 step process.
We will see BNF OI total and OI change during the day for both Weekly and monthly strike.

Lets start :

BNF Weekly : Total OI as per EOD

BNF Weekly : OI Change during the day

BNF Monthly : Total OI as per EOD

BNF Monthly : OI Change during the day