Nifty Nov 18000CE is above monthly Avwap of 260 now. Lets analyse this CE in detail. As much as we can. Lets start.

Lets do today EOD data analysis.

We will do in it a 4 step process.
We will see BNF OI total and OI change during the day for both Weekly and monthly strike.

Lets start :

BNF Weekly : Total OI as per EOD

BNF Weekly : OI Change during the day

BNF Monthly : Total OI as per EOD

BNF Monthly : OI Change during the day

Lets see what happened on HDFC on 4/4/22 when it opened 10% gap up on merger news.

At EOD price rose by 9.36% while OI fell by 4.90%. Refer below table on OI and Price Interpretation. It was a clear case of smart money using the upmove to exit the trade

Below is the 15m chart of HDFC on 4/4/22. Yellow line is VWAP line . You can see after 11.00 AM the stock traded below VWAP through out the day. And if you are a smart trader, u know the game has been set there only. Also see the volume on selling side throughout the day in lower

panel.

Actually talking on lay man terms....Business of HDFC is giving home loan and other loans. They were buying money from Bond market or other resources at 5-6% minimum rate and then lending those money to retail client at 1-2% addl profit.

After merger, they will get dirt cheap Savings money of retailer at 2-3% rate, so the money which they was getting at 5-6% is now getting at 2-3%. So straightway decrease in cost to the extent of minimum 30-45%.

Still both the stocks getting sold !!!

Really something is wrong somewhere. And I want to be wrong here, but prices are speaking something bad is cooking.

PS: I did the layman merger advantage of HDFC/HDFCBank as a panwala knowledge

There are few days and expiry where BNF is sitting time bomb. Actually it becomes difficult to understand whether the Option Seller are Complacent or Cautious. Both the words have complete opposite meaning. Let me explain the situation for tomorrow.

BNF closed at 32800 today

BNF closed at 32800 today and the price of 32800 straddle is 370 points only. Means a range of 32800-370 = 32430 on lower side & 32800+370 = 33170 on higher side.

This 32800 straddle started the day at 453 points and ended at 370 points, a decay of only 80 points during the day

32500 PE is trading at Rs 92/- and 33100 CE is trading at Rs 66/-, so basically a small gap of 250-300 points tomorrow can take these CE/PE writer in panick at open. The only good thing in these options is small OI. The OI is too small in comparision to last few expiries.

So difficult to say whether these writer are Cautious or Complacent. Going by the recent trends, 300 points gap is now common in BNF and with such small premium, God knows which side camel will sit.

Not holding any position but can we see the repeat of last THURSDAY ??

Lets See the status of Nifty and Bank Nifty and its major stock. The stock which moves both the index. We will use AVWAP across time frame to derive whether stock is weak or strong. We will use Quaterly AVWAP/Monthly AVWAP/Yearly AVWAP and March 20 AVWAP.

What is best way to sell strangle in Banknifty on an intraday basis
Simple
at 9:45 Open Option chain and check In which strike highest OI change in call side and put side

Sell both option with combine SL
Enjoy easy and simple intraday trading strategy
Today 35000CE and 34500PE

A Thread on the Boss himself @Mitesh_Engr

Mitesh Sir's Positional Option Selling 101:

• How to find direction
• Which options to sell
• How to deploy capital
• Exit criteria
• What ROI he targets weekly
• What % risk he takes

Done with the help of @niki_poojary

How @Mitesh_Engr Sir finds the direction?

• Daily charts S/R
• 75 min charts S/R
• Intraday trend
• Always play directional
• Never trades in strategies

Which options to sell in weekly expiry according to @Mitesh_Engr?

• Weekly candle High/Low
• Sell 1% away options from those
• Exit when levels breached

Position Sizing by @Mitesh_Engr Sir.

How to deploy your capital?

• First sell 20%
• Pyramid the next day
• When to exit
• What to do when view goes wrong
• What to do with idle capital

Some important tweets of @Mitesh_Engr Sir

• What Data to look at
• ROI for safe players per month
• Max risk per day
• Gather knowledge and play directional
• Never play strategies

A THREAD on . . . .

How @ITRADE191 selects strikes to trade in and how he follows risk management.

Short thread explained via pictures with the help of @niki_poojary.

1. At the start of the week

i.e. on Friday and Monday, DJ Sir prefers to sell OTM options of 50 rs premium in Nifty.

- ATM options won't decay a lot at the beginning
- With this premium reward is good
- Since these strikes are 4-5 strikes away they are relatively safer

2. On Tue/Wed/Fri

He prefers to trade in ATM or near OTM options.

- ATM options have the highest theta decay
- Since there are only 2-3 days to expiry options sellers by default have a higher probability of winning
- Huge reward if market stays flat

3. Directional/Trending days

- Capture huge profit via ATM option selling
- Futures only where he has good conviction
- Even if doesn't trend much decay will be huge
- Only on days Tuesday to Thursday

4. Which series to trade options in?

- INTRADAY trades option selling is ONLY in weekly expiry
- Option buying for hedging is done MAJORLY in next week/monthly expiry
- This way we have time to adjust
- Theta decay slower than weekly