BC BREXIT
Saved by @Alex1Powell

There are just 16 days to go until the end of the transition period

But how ready is the UK? (Tl,dr – it’s not and realistically can't be fully prepared)

(Long) thread, building on our @instituteforgov paper from November (most of which still stands…)

 First. What does being ready look like?

Deal or no deal – huge changes are coming in Jan. With new customs and regulatory checks at the border, new red tape and rules for businesses, the end of free movement of people +less effective security cooperation
https://t.co/auC1u8gK7h
In practice, the scale of these changes – and the limited time to prepare alongside covid- mean that the UK will never be fully ‘ready’. Inevitably there will be some disruption at the border, non-compliance with new rules and interrupted trade. Cannot foresee all eventualities.
What are the main stumbling blocks in preparations?
❌The GB-EU border
❌Business readiness
❓NI protocol - last week's agreement has resolved some issues – but there is still a lot to do
GB-EU border
The gov is just about on track to deliver IT systems infrastructure and people needed to make the GB-EU border work from Jan.
But a lot of this has come late in the day-leaving little time for full end-to-end testing and for businesses to make their own preparations
Much also rests on the private sector being ready. Most traders will rely on customs agents to complete paperwork on their behalf, and private sector vets to sign export health certificates. But capacity has been slow to rise to meet demand.
And all of this is after the UK government delayed introducing full import checks for 6 months.

Much more work is needed before these take effect in July.
Some government preparations have also been thrown off course. Flooding has delayed construction of one of the key ‘lorry parks’ in Kent, needed help manage new border processes – forcing the gov to rely on contingency plans https://t.co/dRuh3pNNV8
In contrast, EU member states are far more confident in their border infrastructure and processes – having been ready longer and subject to more testing. But risks remain on day one. https://t.co/FvfqWNX48H
It seems inevitable that there will be disruption at the border in Jan (even if it doesn’t all hit on 1 Jan).

A lot of the gov’s prep is about handling this – through lorry parks, contraflow systems and a new app to try and keep unprepared lorries away from the border.
Businesses have been preparing for the risk of delays too, by stockpiling and seeking alternative routes. But there are concerns that EU hauliers (~85% of the haulage market) could choose to avoid GB if there are delays – which could exacerbate problems.
Business readiness remains the biggest concern for January.

A punishing mix of covid, uncertainty over the outcome of negotiations and a lack of detailed guidance has hindered preparations and means many firms will not be ready for new rules.
But biz readiness is not uniform. High regulated services tends to be better prepared. Small biz tend to be less prepared. But readiness can vary between firms.

Nearly 2/3 of @The_IoD members say they are not fully prepared + @EY_UKI say 80% global biz not aware of all risks
Many are calling for a generous approach to enforcement on day one. Businesses do not want to break the rules–but may struggle to prepare and may find themselves acting unlawfully in Jan...
As @SamuelMarcLowe explores https://t.co/MiASdgBrFs
Delays in reaching a Brexit agreement mean that time may now have run out for businesses to enjoy all the benefits on 1 Jan, even if one is agreed.
For example, to benefit from zero tariffs, firms would have to comply with complex rules of origin requirements showing where their goods come from. But firms now say they won’t have time to do this without a grace period. https://t.co/kFNgasDIAo
Plus many regulatory changes don’t bite on 1 Jan. The UK government is phasing in many new rules and registration requirements over time. So businesses will have to keep preparing for Brexit changes well into 2021 and beyond.
https://t.co/qnzprl9KkU
Take a look at our @instituteforgov (and @sageuk) event from last week on business readiness for more detail on how businesses are preparing https://t.co/wKPR51T39U
NI protocol

Last week’s agreement on NI resolves many of the issues that risked most disruption at the GB-NI border on 1 Jan. But more detail is needed to understand how the various mitigations will work in practice.

See @Jess_Sargeant's piece for more https://t.co/C5QpdIdSGn
Many of these rely on the gov setting up new services or schemes for businesses- the trader support service for customs, movement support service for EHCs and the trusted trader scheme to avoid tariffs and rules of origin. With just days to go – the pressure is on gov IT teams
Many measures are also temporary – meaning firms, gov and NI executive must continue preparing for big changes next year.

And the gov seems to accept that January could still be bumpy – calling for pragmatism and sympathy next year…
Dealing with huge Brexit changes plus Covid and winter pressures will be a huge task for gov. It’s good to see ‘Operation Capstone’ contingency plans being tested this week. But as @FT reports, some parts of gov are stretched. Civil servants are fatigued https://t.co/W6SHQHv56x
The gov still needs to outline what Brexit economic support – if any - it will provide to biz. Reports suggest £8-10 billion to support hard hit sectors in a no deal. https://t.co/a1lZ83mNVv
But even with a deal, some could struggle with short term disruption to supply chains or adapt to new rules...

And targeting economic support will be incredibly difficult, given the ongoing impact of the Covid crisis complicating the task...
Ultimately, the UK is not ready for Brexit. To some extent, it can never be fully prepared. But more can be done in the weeks ahead.

But short timelines, Covid and deal uncertainty have not helped matters.

🎄🎄🎄🎄

More from Brexit

Alessio Patalano
Alessio Patalano
@alessionaval
Two excellent questions at the end of a very sensible thread summarising the post-Brexit UK FP debate. My own take at attempting to offer an answer - ahead of the IR is as follow:


1. The two versions have a converging point: a tilt to the Indo-pacific doesn’t preclude a role as a convening power on global issues;
2. On the contrary, it underwrites the credibility for leadership on global issues, by seeking to strike two points:

A. Engaging with a part of the world in which world order and global issues are central to security, prosperity, and - not least - values;
B. Propelling the UK towards a more diversified set of economic, political, and security ties;

3. The tilt towards the Indo-Pacific whilst structurally based on a realist perception of the world, it is also deeply multilateral. Central to it is the notion of a Britain that is a convening power.
4. It is as a result a notion that stands on the ability to renew diplomacy;

5. It puts in relation to this a premium on under-utilised formats such as FPDA, 5Eyes, and indeed the Commonwealth - especially South Pacific islands;
6. It equally puts a premium on exploring new bilateral and multilateral formats. On former, Japan, Australia. On latter, Quad;
BREXIT
David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Ten days in and it seems the government's post-Brexit economic policy is to ignore reality, priority and choice, and just claim with no evidence that everything is going to be great. This, needless to say, is dangerous territory. Exhibit 1... 1/

Here's a good example of what is currently passing for UK economic policy. The theory the UK can be 'nimble' in regulations has been present since 2016. In 5 years nobody has found the detail. We presume others might have a similar idea. And trade needs regulations to align 2/


There will of course always be someone to blame. Usually the EU. Because they do indeed want to compete with the UK. This is not exactly surprising. A vague UK idea versus the bigger next door market (or indeed a big one over the pond). Who's going to win? 3/


Next, 'Global Britain' and specifically the Liz Truss speech in the Commons yesterday. To summarise, we are going to do trade deals on everything with everyone while still protecting UK industry and poor countries. Yup, more warm words and no priorities.

Useful example here. The long running EU-US trade battle over food, one claiming to be about quality, the other science. The UK solution. We'll do both! Fabulous, why did nobody think of this before? Unless they did, and found they still had to choose. Note other warm words 5/
BREXIT
Advertisement
Michael M. \U0001f1e8\U0001f1ed\U0001f1f3\U0001f1f4\U0001f1ee\U0001f1f8\U0001f1f1\U0001f1ee\U0001f1ec\U0001f1e7
Michael M. 🇨🇭🇳🇴🇮🇸🇱🇮🇬🇧...
@vivamjm
FELIXSTOWE, England (Reuters) -

In just one month of post-Brexit trading, British logistics expert Jon Swallow has seen exports dive, prices rise and customers so desperate that he is practically offering a counselling service.

Swallow is one of thousands of freight forwarders and customs brokers based around Britain’s biggest ports who have described the overnight introduction of a full customs border as akin to the country placing economic sanctions on itself.

Britain’s New Year’s Eve departure from the European Union’s orbit after 47 years of membership means exporters must now provide customs and safety declarations, health checks and rules of origin details to trade with its biggest partner.

We are now at a disadvantage to people trading within the EU,” Swallow, a co-director of Jordon Freight, told Reuters in his office next to the vast cranes that tower over Felixstowe docks, Britain’s biggest container port, on the south east coast of England.

“We’re a very fast-paced business, but now we’re just like walking through mud. There’s just paperwork everywhere.”
Those companies that trade goods between Britain and the bloc are paying a price, particularly small firms.
BREXIT
Axelisys (at Home)
Axelisys (at Home)
@Axelisys
👨🏾‍💻 OK. So the @Independent is such a rare thing these days. There are a couple of things to highlight in this article.

Firstly, Rules of Origin generally are a WTO concept not EU concept. The Single Market recognised the UK as equivalent #Thread

Most of the provision of the UK-EU Partnership Agreement undoes EU rules to 'regress' to WTO rules, before then applying the Free Trade Agreement elements between the two parties. That's the nature of going from Single Market & Customs Union, to a [mere] free trade agreement /2

The affected industry bodies seem to think they can just pick up the trade deal & start negotiations from scratch again. No, that's not how it works. The EU are now not part of the regulatory chain the UK can access, since the UK gave up on the shared competency of membership /3

Unlike UK Parliamentary law, which works on the principle of not binding future electorates, this is a principle that can only apply in the UK. The EU (or anyone else we ever end a deal with) not only doesn't recognise it, but can't! /4

Previously, in the UK, you could just write to your MP, who could raise questions with the shared l competency, through the European Council. You could also write to your MEP, who could raise questions to the European Parliament. Now, neither of these apply /5
BREXIT
Somerset \u2764\ufe0fs Europe #FBPE \U0001f34f\u2764\U0001f1ea\U0001f1fa
Somerset ❤️s Europe #F...
@Somerset4Europe
#SLE_IanDunt 30 minutes to the start of our "Evening with Ian Dunt". Information here: https://t.co/9bLxOtCr56
Log-in tickets from https://t.co/iKcwmQh7gZ. See you soon!

We will be live tweeting on this thread ...

Blimey; 19 pages of Zoom logins, 25 on each!

A crucial moment in the first page of the story of how to get back into the EU

Borders for goods: the Single Market removes checks on goods; relies a lot of people putting in the right information at the right time
BREXIT

You May Also Like

WORLD OF SANATAN DHARMA
WORLD OF SANATAN DHARM...
@world_sanatan
WHY BABUR NEVER TRIED TO ATTACK SRI KRISHNADEVARAYA ?

A🧵u must read

It is very well known that Babur considered Krishna Dev Raya as the strongest ruler of the entire subcontinent, and Vijayanagar empire the strongest during that time in India.

1/10


The Vijayanagar empire reached its peak during 1509-1529 around the reign of Krishna Dev Raya.

Vijayanagar’s famed elephant brigade 👇

2/10


At his command there were over 50000 elite troops with a regiment of Portuguese gunners and 3200 cavalry with 600 elephants.

3/10

Along with that more than four hundred thousand ( four lakh) peasant levies and irregular military made this empire one of the largest in all of South Asia.

A typical Vijayanagar levie soldier 👇

4/10


During Baburs invasion, Krishna Dev Raya ruled supreme in all of deccan.

In fact, in an all our brawl, Krisha Dev Raya will beat Babur fair and square.

Babur could muster at max 50000 troops with 50 canons.

While Krishna Dev Raya had these numbers in Hampi alone

5/10
ALL
Loren Brichter
Loren Brichter
@lorenb
So it turns out that Google Chrome was making everything on my computer slow *even when it wasn’t running*, because it installs something called Keystone which is basically malware.

I made a website because this shouldn’t

Wired first reported on how bad Keystone was 11 years ago when they put it into Google Earth (they seem to put it in all their popular

The fact that Keystone hides itself in Activity Monitor is bizarre. (The only sign of it was excessive CPU usage of WindowServer which is a system process).

I don’t know if Google was doing something nefarious with Keystone, or a third party figured out how to (which Wired warned about). But either way, I’m not inclined to give Google-the-organization the benefit of the doubt (despite the many good people who work on Chrome)...

...since it's been a decade+ and this still hasn't been "fixed".

There is no reason for auto-update software to need to do what Chrome/Keystone was doing. It also has a long history of crashing Macs.
TECH
Advertisement
Richard James
Richard James
@RJSHutton
I think a plausible explanation is that whatever Corbyn says or does, his critics will denounce - no matter how much hypocrisy it necessitates.


Corbyn opposes the exploitation of foreign sweatshop-workers - Labour MPs complain he's like Nigel

He speaks up in defence of migrants - Labour MPs whinge that he's not listening to the public's very real concerns about immigration:

He's wrong to prioritise Labour Party members over the public:

He's wrong to prioritise the public over Labour Party
POLITICS
WORLD OF SANATAN DHARMA
WORLD OF SANATAN DHARM...
@world_sanatan
THE LAST STAND OF PAVAN KHIND - THE 300 BATTLE OF INDIA

A long🧵that u must read

In desperate times, great men come forth. Those men who are ready to sacrifice all of their lives work for a single cause.

Baji Prabhu Deshpande is one such man.

1/25


Battle was between the Maratha Warrior Baji Prabhu Deshpande and Sidi Masoud of Adil Shahi Sultanate.

In 1660, the Maratha King Shri Chhatrapati Shivaji was trapped in the fort of Panhala, under siege and vastly outnumbered by an Adilshahis army led by Sidi Masoud.

2/25

And while everyone is thinking that finally the Maratha king will be subdued, Shivaji planned to escape to the fort of Vishalgadh. It was administered by a Maratha chieftain named Range Narayan Orpe under Shivaji.

3/25

For months the siege warfare continued as Shivaji made sure that the food source of the Besieging army drops down, due to which they will initiate a general assault on the castle.

4/25

Shivaji, Baji Prabhu, and around 600 of their best troops, hardened mountaineers of the Maval region, would dash through the Adilshahis force at night.

A man named Shiva Kashid, who resembled Shivaji in appearance, had volunteered to dress like the king and get captured.

5/25
ALL
Dr. Thomas Binder, MD
Dr. Thomas Binder, MD
@Thomas_Binder
1/12

RT-PCR corona (test) scam

Symptomatic people are tested for one and only one respiratory virus. This means that other acute respiratory infections are reclassified as


2/12

It is tested exquisitely with a hypersensitive non-specific RT-PCR test / Ct >35 (>30 is nonsense, >35 is madness), without considering Ct and clinical context. This means that more acute respiratory infections are reclassified as


3/12

The Drosten RT-PCR test is fabricated in a way that each country and laboratory perform it differently at too high Ct and that the high rate of false positives increases massively due to cross-reaction with other (corona) viruses in the "flu


4/12

Even asymptomatic, previously called healthy, people are tested (en masse) in this way, although there is no epidemiologically relevant asymptomatic transmission. This means that even healthy people are declared as COVID


5/12

Deaths within 28 days after a positive RT-PCR test from whatever cause are designated as deaths WITH COVID. This means that other causes of death are reclassified as
CATEGORY C19