2.) If tariffs have to be imposed under ‘no deal’ WTO rules, the EU will pay £12bn in tariffs a year and the U.K. £5bn (ref: Civitas) -
Here is thread with few facts relevant to current drama on Brexit deal or rather more likely NO DEAL - FOR NOW!
1.) If we have to go to ‘no deal’ (/Australia deal) we will be doing what most members of World Trade Organisation (WTO - covering virtually every country in world) do.
2.) If tariffs have to be imposed under ‘no deal’ WTO rules, the EU will pay £12bn in tariffs a year and the U.K. £5bn (ref: Civitas) -
3.) The £12bn income from tariffs will come to UK Treasury, not Brussels. Effectively these will be UK consumer taxes that could perhaps go towards reducing COVID debt?;
5.) By definition, 57% of U.K. exports go to Rest of the World. Growth outside of Europe is forecast to be 90% of all growth over next 15-20 years.
6.) Whilst UK has trade surplus with USA and most Commonwealth countries, we have massive deficit with EU in goods - £95bn a year.
7.) UK is 5th largest economy in world, the same sized economy as India with 1.3 billion population, & 20% larger than geographically massive Russia;
10.) Normally, only about 4% of containers arriving into U.K. are checked physically and this is mostly intelligence led
More from Brexit
Important story on what a “tariff-free” deal means in practice and why it’s not enough for two economies as closely integrated.
Tariffs are removed on goods that meet rules of origin. This is a complex and nuanced area of customs.
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\U0001f6a8\U0001f6a8\U0001f6a8\U0001f1ea\U0001f1fa\U0001f1ec\U0001f1e7\U0001f69b\U0001f692\U0001f1ea\U0001f1fa\U0001f1ec\U0001f1e7\U0001f6a8\U0001f6a8\U0001f6a8 serious #brexit story alert - companies now starting to see penny drop on what rules of origin does to supply chains (food for example) but Brussels seems deaf to both EU & U.K. pleading. A bellwether? \U0001f62c Stay with me. 1/
— Peter Foster (@pmdfoster) January 6, 2021
https://t.co/HoDSDxhKaL
Important to remember that trade deals (FTAs) weren't designed with such a high degree of economic integration in mind.
So some of the standard RoO provisions will seem incredibly restrictive under the UK-EU deal.
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Minimal operations or insufficient processing is a standard part of an FTA. Most, if not all FTAs, include a provision on minimal processing – processing not considered sufficient to confer originating status even if rules of origin have been met.
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It is standard procedure not to apply cumulation when goods have only been subject to minimal processing.
To be able to cumulate origin and consider the final product of UK origin, the processing carried out in the UK needs to exceed minimal operations.
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The level of integration between the UK and the EU means that this will have significant consequences for a number of industries.
For example, in supply chains where goods are brought into the UK from the EU and reassembled, sorted or repackaged and re-exported to ROI.
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The key questions are:
1⃣ Given the model of Brexit chosen, could this have been prevented, and by whom?
2⃣ Can it get better?
#Brexit & #fishing: True to their word, it looks like British #seafood exporters are taking their concerns around #trade to the streets of London #Brexality pic.twitter.com/CIqmDQR69d
— Bryce Stewart (@BD_Stew) January 18, 2021
2/ To put those another way:
"If you knew everything you needed to know and did everything right, is your existing business and delivery model still viable and competitive?"
The answer to that question determines if for you the problem is Brexit, or how Brexit was delivered.
3/ Some of the challenges at borders could have been prevented while still having the exact same model of Brexit (No Single Market, No Customs Union, but an FTA).
That they're appearing is an implementation failure and you can fully support Brexit but still be pissed about them.
4/ Examples include:
1) Government guidance and IT systems being ready earlier and/or easier to navigate;
2) More support for businesses, and more affordable bespoke help;
3) More time to prepare and better government communication about what preparation actually requires.
5/ This thread you've all seen from Daniel Lambert the wine merchant (primarily) deals with problems in this category.
There's no policy reason he can't export his product, but the procedures are a nightmare to navigate and he's badly under-supported.
Over the past 15 days I have not only been running my company as normal but I have been faced with largest threat to its future since it began in 1992. This is #Brexit & here is my thread on just how bad things are getting. 1/26
— Daniel Lambert (Wines). \U0001f1ea\U0001f1fa\U0001f1eb\U0001f1f7\U0001f3f4\U000e0067\U000e0062\U000e0077\U000e006c\U000e0073\U000e007f\U0001f347\U0001f942 (@DanielLambert29) January 16, 2021