It's OUT! My latest #Brexit Briefing for @FinancialTimes - examining @BorisJohnson
"buy
now, pay later" Northern Ireland Protocol, why the EU-UK trust deficit is killing it, how that can be restored - because it needs to work. /1

@FinancialTimes @BorisJohnson The danger here is that lingering animus over the opportunistic nature Johnson's Faustian bargain - dividing his Kingdom in order to 'get #Brexit done' and win an 80-seat majority - is clouding judgement on both sides of the Channel /2
@FinancialTimes @BorisJohnson The facts of the Protocol are no less true for Johnson's constant denial of them - that there would be checks, that there really is a trade border that now prevents plants and pets from travelling freely from Bedford to Ballymena as M.Gove reminds us. But these are other facts/3
@FinancialTimes @BorisJohnson Firstly, NI remains part of UK, even if it is now has EU customs rules.

Secondly, NI remains politically divided and fragile; the Good Friday Agreement is a constant work in progress.

Thirdly, both the EU and the UK agreed to this unsatisfactory arrangement jointly. /4
@FinancialTimes @BorisJohnson Fourthly, therefore, they have a joint responsibility to make it work because

Fifthly - and most importantly — there is no alternative to it. /5
@FinancialTimes @BorisJohnson The last three years established that a technological north-south border isn't happening - technologically OR politically.

And the UK will not agree to the strictures of “no regulatory divergence” that underpinned May's decision to say in the EU single market for goods./6
@FinancialTimes @BorisJohnson Which leaves everyone - London, Brussels, Dublin and Belfast - stuck with this unsatisfactory arrangement that needs to be made to work in as unobtrusive and politically sensitive way as possible - everyone's grievances to one side, which is stupidly easy to say, I know /7
@FinancialTimes @BorisJohnson But it does need to *work* - that means the border needs to function properly as @MarosSefcovic has said - or you start to create the conditions for the very same north-south border that we're all trying to avoid here. /8
@FinancialTimes @BorisJohnson @MarosSefcovic The UK does recognise this need for functionality - even if its behaviour last year by unilaterally threatening to break the terms of the deal - has raised doubts on the EU side about London's real commitment to the deal. /9
@FinancialTimes @BorisJohnson @MarosSefcovic But at the same time, if the EU keeps on treating the GB-NI border like the Dover-Calais border and as a 'test' of UK probity and trustworthiness, there is a risk of a downward spiral that, in the absence of alternatives, leads nowhere good /10
It was interesting listening to NI logistics operators this week talking to @CommonsNIAC about how processes could be simplified and streamlined whilst still giving the EU the data/certainty they need /11

https://t.co/Eurz92g0EG
@CommonsNIAC This is v technical stuff, but it is surely worth exploring more deeply - in the light of the 'unique circumstances' of Northern Ireland how both sides can - to coin a bitter phrase - have their cake and eat it here /12
@CommonsNIAC In his letter @MarosSefcovic says that functionality is a "prerequisite" for further easements and facilitations - but it is important that the EU really means that, and can approach this in a outcomes-based, not legalistic way. /13
@CommonsNIAC @MarosSefcovic The problem - as we all know - is that this deeply unsatisfactory deal really requires trust and good relations on both sides. And the reality is that that is sadly lacking - @michaelgove dinging Brussels for its "integrationist theology" (and EU return fire) all symptomatic /14
@CommonsNIAC @MarosSefcovic @michaelgove On the upside, it seems that @MarosSefcovic and @michaelgove did manage to lower the temperature last night over their London Deliveroo dinner party and seek "workable solutions" /15

https://t.co/5vRgzIqKjP
@CommonsNIAC @MarosSefcovic @michaelgove UK officials are pretty guarded in their optimism - this is far from sorted - BUT the willingness of the EU side to engage/listen with NI business is taken as a positive, both in Whitehall but also in NI as @MichaelAodhan tells me in that news report. /16
@CommonsNIAC @MarosSefcovic @michaelgove @MichaelAodhan The danger, talking to folk in Brussels, is that France, Germany are failing to separate out the Protocol form the rest of the deal - and are determined to keep both London (and Dublin) "honest" here, and in the process are deepening a mess they don't really understand/17
@CommonsNIAC @MarosSefcovic @michaelgove @MichaelAodhan Of course, they might "understand" better if @michaelgove @DavidGHFrost @BorisJohnson all did more to settle the relationship that, on many fronts, looks testy - and likelier to get testier as more and more realities of the Canada-style trading start to land /18
@CommonsNIAC @MarosSefcovic @michaelgove @MichaelAodhan @DavidGHFrost @BorisJohnson There needs to be a really collective effort not to make Northern Ireland the casualty of this post-divorce feuding. If the border can bed in, then there are even some upsides - ask the NI shellfish operators, they can send to Europe, no depuration required ;) /19
@CommonsNIAC @MarosSefcovic @michaelgove @MichaelAodhan @DavidGHFrost @BorisJohnson Anyway. On the upside, this week has ended in a better place than it began, and that - in #Brexit world - is surely progress. Fingers crossed it continues.

Good weekend all. ENDS
@CommonsNIAC @MarosSefcovic @michaelgove @MichaelAodhan @DavidGHFrost @BorisJohnson PS...if you got this far, here is the #Brexit Briefing in question

https://t.co/Y8dBxZOcsi

More from Peter Foster

More from Brexit

This very short article by Jeremy Cliffe is the best thing I have ever read on Brexit and the EU. It pivots on the contrast between Delors’ and Thatcher’s authentically provincial Christian visions and suggests the battle in Britain between the two is not over.


Thatcher: Protestant believer in the totally free market and absolutely sovereign centralised nation state. Delors: Catholic believer in third way personalism, corporatism and federalism. Individualism versus relational love. Heterodoxy versus Orthodoxy.

The article useful gives the lie to the idea that the Catholic vision of the EU has altogether vanished even though it is weakened. Delors wanted a social dimension to the free market and single currency and yet lexiteers laughably insist the EU is more neoliberal than the U.K.!

Subsidiary federalism is a doctrine of democracy and human fraternity. State sovereignty is a doctrine of naked power. It is a face of Antichrist. Leviathan.

Those combined that democracy can only be inside a single state fail to power just how much of private law and evermore so is necessarily international. Thus if political institutions don’t extend over borders there can be no democracy.

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