#Bitcoin update:

- Trapped in consolidation between $30 and $38k
- Lower highs and supply above c$38k
- Buying interest on the books £30-33k
- Meme consolidation triangle
- 20 wma @ $19.5k
- Accumulation VWAPs in the 20s
- underlying tether fud
- 61.8% retracement c. $22k

- 3 Day predator unconfirmed Orange candle

- Demand at low $30s was tested today and has since bounced & Coinbase led price on the drop

- Market structure is complex - Triangle is misleading

- Lots of orders stacked @ 30-33k.
- Market is fearful in the demand zone as shown by funding; i do not think we are ready to drop quite yet; Expecting longer consolidation.

- New Tether output has been on hold but new money came today

- Tether case request for 30 more days; could be indicative of consolidation
- Breakdown in price deeper than high $20s / lower $30s would IMO most likely require FUD induced event

- If stars align 20 WMA is catching up fast and will probably be resting in with the accumulation VWAPs, 61.8% retracement &d drives into big buy orders.
- Why did we stop @ $40k?
- Miners deep in profit vs. 654 average; time to tp
- SImilar response in other cycles

https://t.co/Iurd68NnZZ
1 Year HODL wave;

- Shows investors holding coins in the cycle dumping to TP.

https://t.co/wCWE23ifhu
MVRV Z Score and SOPR also showing extent of unrealized PL.

https://t.co/FIcsO7I4Cn

https://t.co/rE0THDXgS1
What this tells us is;

- MIners deep in relative profit
- Cyclical Hodlers de-risking
- Market behaviors largely representative of prior cycles.
- WIll be useful to look for dips (SOPR/BE Point)
- Will be useful looking for tops (miners and unrealized PL)
Im sitting on my hands for now, its actually clear to me; clear $38k & turn to support then let's talk bullish; keep it as resistance then Bitcoin is weak & we need to see volume divergences, etc indicating hidden accumulation & dodging FUD.
I welcome both a healthy consolidation establishing $30k as a floor & see any dip into the low-mid $20ks as a cyclical dip opportunity.

Im neutral for now and positioned as such.

Good luck.

More from Bitcoin

The defi matrix

As each asset class goes on-chain, it can be stored in a digital wallet. And it can be traded against other such assets. Not just cryptocurrencies, but national digital currencies, personal tokens, etc.

We’re about to enter an age of global monetary competition.

The defi matrix is the table of all pair wise trades. It’s the fiat/stablecoin pairs, the fiat/crypto pairs, the crypto/crypto pairs, and much more besides.

Uniswap-style automatic market making for everything. Every possession you have, constantly marked to market by ~2040.

More liquidity, less currency?

This is an interesting point. Cash doesn’t make you money. In fact, it can lose you money in an inflating environment.

Reliable, 24/7 mark-to-market on everything is hard — but if achieved, means less % of assets in cash.


AMMs boost BTC. Here's why.

- All assets trade against all assets in the defi matrix
- Automated market makers give liquidity for rare pairs
- Everything is marked-to-market 24/7
- Value of cash drops, as you can liquidate instantly
- The new no-op is to keep your assets in BTC

Basically, automated market makers like @Uniswap boost BTC in the long term, because they allow *everything* to be priced in BTC terms, and *anyone* to switch out of BTC into their asset of choice.

Though in practice this may mean WBTC/RenBTC [or ETH!] rather than BTC itself.

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