#Bitcoin update:

- Trapped in consolidation between $30 and $38k
- Lower highs and supply above c$38k
- Buying interest on the books £30-33k
- Meme consolidation triangle
- 20 wma @ $19.5k
- Accumulation VWAPs in the 20s
- underlying tether fud
- 61.8% retracement c. $22k

- 3 Day predator unconfirmed Orange candle

- Demand at low $30s was tested today and has since bounced & Coinbase led price on the drop

- Market structure is complex - Triangle is misleading

- Lots of orders stacked @ 30-33k.
- Market is fearful in the demand zone as shown by funding; i do not think we are ready to drop quite yet; Expecting longer consolidation.

- New Tether output has been on hold but new money came today

- Tether case request for 30 more days; could be indicative of consolidation
- Breakdown in price deeper than high $20s / lower $30s would IMO most likely require FUD induced event

- If stars align 20 WMA is catching up fast and will probably be resting in with the accumulation VWAPs, 61.8% retracement &d drives into big buy orders.
- Why did we stop @ $40k?
- Miners deep in profit vs. 654 average; time to tp
- SImilar response in other cycles

https://t.co/Iurd68NnZZ
1 Year HODL wave;

- Shows investors holding coins in the cycle dumping to TP.

https://t.co/wCWE23ifhu
MVRV Z Score and SOPR also showing extent of unrealized PL.

https://t.co/FIcsO7I4Cn

https://t.co/rE0THDXgS1
What this tells us is;

- MIners deep in relative profit
- Cyclical Hodlers de-risking
- Market behaviors largely representative of prior cycles.
- WIll be useful to look for dips (SOPR/BE Point)
- Will be useful looking for tops (miners and unrealized PL)
Im sitting on my hands for now, its actually clear to me; clear $38k & turn to support then let's talk bullish; keep it as resistance then Bitcoin is weak & we need to see volume divergences, etc indicating hidden accumulation & dodging FUD.
I welcome both a healthy consolidation establishing $30k as a floor & see any dip into the low-mid $20ks as a cyclical dip opportunity.

Im neutral for now and positioned as such.

Good luck.

More from Bitcoin

1/9 Bitcoin has performed remarkably these past few weeks despite:
-Most of DeFi falling 50-80%
-CFTC charging BitMEX
-POTUS contracting Covid
-Delayed stimulus talks
-FCA announcing a derivative ban for retail

Why? Let’s see what we can find on-chain

2/9 Bitcoin’s Realized Cap has been steadily increasing just as it did before the 2017 bull market took off. If it continues as it did in 2017, 2021 should be an interesting year.

https://t.co/nqgX7vTMDV


3/9 Bitcoin MVRV, whilst more volatile this market cycle, is also is holding the same trajectory it did during the 2016/17 bull market

https://t.co/jadbn6nCOB


4/9 Looking at the supply of Bitcoin on exchanges is a good indication as to whether or not users are increasing trading activity, or increasing hodl activity. With supply reducing it looks like the tendency recently has been driven by hodlers


5/9 Despite the recent volatility, the number of Bitcoin whales continues to increase, indicating the growing number of large holders that have positive expectations for the future of Bitcoin
1/ #Bitcoin FUD-busting time!

claim: bitcoin ownership is heavily concentrated.

@business published an article claiming "2% of accounts control 95% of all Bitcoin" 🤣

truth: the facts, my friends, simple don't line up. let's dive in!

2/ interrogating on-chain addresses is tricky.

address =/ account.

one person can control multiple addresses.

one address can hold bitcoin belonging to multiple ppl.

exchanges and trading firms will have addresses with large balances that represent client funds.

3/ the fine folks @glassnode published an excellent analysis of on-chain address balances in January

the ownership distribution of bitcoin among wallets is actually much more diverse than one might expect.

full piece here:
https://t.co/n5IdIQdNoA


4/ 31% of BTC is held in addresses not identified as exchange wallets.

these are likely institutions, funds, custodians, and OTC desks.

our analysis at @CoinSharesCo indicates >15% of all bitcoin is held in third party custody, including @coinbase and our own @KomainuCustody

5/ in fact, between asset managers @Grayscale ($36B in BTC) and our @xbtprovider ($4B in BTC), 4% of bitcoin is locked up by fund providers and asset managers!

our @CoinSharesCo research team publishes an EXCELLENT weekly report on fund flows and AUMs -

You May Also Like

And here they are...

THE WINNERS OF THE 24 HOUR STARTUP CHALLENGE

Remember, this money is just fun. If you launched a product (or even attempted a launch) - you did something worth MUCH more than $1,000.

#24hrstartup

The winners 👇

#10

Lattes For Change - Skip a latte and save a life.

https://t.co/M75RAirZzs

@frantzfries built a platform where you can see how skipping your morning latte could do for the world.

A great product for a great cause.

Congrats Chris on winning $250!


#9

Instaland - Create amazing landing pages for your followers.

https://t.co/5KkveJTAsy

A team project! @bpmct and @BaileyPumfleet built a tool for social media influencers to create simple "swipe up" landing pages for followers.

Really impressive for 24 hours. Congrats!


#8

SayHenlo - Chat without distractions

https://t.co/og0B7gmkW6

Built by @DaltonEdwards, it's a platform for combatting conversation overload. This product was also coded exclusively from an iPad 😲

Dalton is a beast. I'm so excited he placed in the top 10.


#7

CoderStory - Learn to code from developers across the globe!

https://t.co/86Ay6nF4AY

Built by @jesswallaceuk, the project is focused on highlighting the experience of developers and people learning to code.

I wish this existed when I learned to code! Congrats on $250!!