1/ outlook for bitcoin: positive ๐Ÿš€

in this thread, i'll quickly outline key data points on #bitcoin sentiment, demand, market structure, and macro conditions

disclosure: i own BTC, obvi. this is not investment advice. DYOR. further disclosures at

2/ let's start w sentiment โ˜บ๏ธ

first, investor sentiment:
โœ… @blackrock filed to add BTC to 2 funds, CIO has 400k price target
โœ… @RayDalio's Bridgewater reportedly issuing BTC research report
โœ…JPM, Goldman, and other bulge brackets initiated research coverage
3/ next, trader sentiment:

๐Ÿšจ most important indicator is the forward curve

normally BTC futures trade in backwardation after a price drop.

this time, the curve stayed in contango following drop, meaning market makers are bullish ๐Ÿ‚๐Ÿ“ˆ despite funding rate increase!
4/ sentiment drives demand. so DEMAND next.

๐Ÿ’ธ let's talk fund flows

๐Ÿค‘ our research shows $359M of inflows into crypto products last week alone (https://t.co/6Kky96m3ob)
๐Ÿค‘ our @CoinSharesCo @xbtprovider ETPs saw $200M trading volume on jan 4

https://t.co/8prtUF1Xxv
4/ let's talk bitcoin fundamentals

post-halving, 900 BTC mined per day, 312,000 this year.

๐Ÿ‘€ 47M millionaires. 21M bitcoin.

๐Ÿ† collectibles selling at all time highs. bitcoin is the ultimate collector's item. (see https://t.co/EaxpRwWe3Y)
5/ next, market structure (my fave)

@CoinSharesCo traded >$1.5B in first two weeks of 2021. have never seen this level of participation.

spot volumes skyrocketing - BTC/USD trade pair volume has ~7x'ed since August, institutions instead of crypto native firms (who use USDT)
6/ biggest market structure shift?

๐Ÿ• trading hours shifting from asia dominance to UK / US hours activity
๐Ÿ’ฑ trade pair dominance shifting from USDT to USD
๐Ÿš€ open interest (OI) on @CMEGroup bitcoin derivs >$1B, break new high

1 + 2 via @KaikoData -https://t.co/RiYNMEP1h1
7/ lastly, macro, cuz BTC doesn't exist in a vacuum and everything is relative

๐Ÿ–จ๏ธ dems + yellen to print print print - $2.5T stimmy

โš ๏ธ unprecedented levels of chaos, mass-scale institutional failure all around

*bitcoin is an antidote to dysfunction*

https://t.co/dJLx6I1vFS
8/ hopefully that provides perspective into how our team @CoinSharesCo thinks and works.

no price targets. no timelines. we use empirical evidence to build an actionable outlook.

being a #bitcoin bull is great. being a bitcoin bull who brings receipts is even better.

/ fin

More from Bitcoin

$BTC: Two Bitcoin FUDs to address this Thanksgiving weekend:

1. China PlusToken FUD: Old news. Please see linked thread.

2. U.S. Treasury FUD: Read thread below...


1/ These news are much more relevant, as they imply severe trade-offs for people who want to keep their bitcoins undoxxed, with the cost and risks of doing so. I would not disqualify the tweet as mere FUD in the sense that what he posted is false. It should be taken seriously.

2/ For all we know, his decision of making it public before TG weekend may come out of the urgency of informing CT of a poignant anti-Bitcoin move by a Trump administration trying to cut lose ends before leaving officeโ€”not just "price manipulation" as I've seen suggested around.

3/ It implies the acceleration of a process already planned for for months in advance, not something he just came up with to "crash the market."

4/ In practicality, assuming this passes, it will have two major consencuences:

a. Armstrong's analysis is correct. And I would go further in saying, this regulation would leave the U.S. severely handicapped to continue to be the leader in the cryptocurrency industry worldwide.

You May Also Like

Nano Course On Python For Trading
==========================
Module 1

Python makes it very easy to analyze and visualize time series data when youโ€™re a beginner. It's easier when you don't have to install python on your PC (that's why it's a nano course, you'll learn python...

... on the go). You will not be required to install python in your PC but you will be using an amazing python editor, Google Colab Visit
https://t.co/EZt0agsdlV

This course is for anyone out there who is confused, frustrated, and just wants this python/finance thing to work!

In Module 1 of this Nano course, we will learn about :

# Using Google Colab
# Importing libraries
# Making a Random Time Series of Black Field Research Stock (fictional)

# Using Google Colab

Intro link is here on YT: https://t.co/MqMSDBaQri

Create a new Notebook at https://t.co/EZt0agsdlV and name it AnythingOfYourChoice.ipynb

You got your notebook ready and now the game is on!
You can add code in these cells and add as many cells as you want

# Importing Libraries

Imports are pretty standard, with a few exceptions.
For the most part, you can import your libraries by running the import.
Type this in the first cell you see. You need not worry about what each of these does, we will understand it later.