2/8 First of all, when you receive your airdrop it will be in a bonded state, i.e. it will be staked.
To transfer it you will have to unbond, which takes 21 days.
So for the first 21 days, the only liquid LUNA on the market will be the 5MM from the developer allocation.
3/8 How much supply will hit the market 21 days after launch?
Here's a key piece of info:
For pre-attack LUNA, only addresses that had less than 10K LUNA will get the genesis unlock. That means only 6.45% of LUNA pre-attack is eligible for the genesis unlock.
That means...
4/8 Genesis unlock amounts per category:
pre-attack LUNA: ~6,811,200
pre-attack aUST: 30,000,000
post-attack LUNA: 30,000,000
post-attack UST: 45,000,000
Total genesis unlock: ~111,811,200 (12% of total supply).
(Total supply of new LUNA = 1 billion, by the way.)
5/8 What does this mean?
It means the VCs and whales, who had most of their wealth in LUNA with addresses that had more than 10K, will not get anything until their 1 year cliff hits.
Terra 2 will be 100% community built, owned, and used for the first year.
6/8 If the VCs and whales start dumping when their 1 year cliff hits - then good riddance! Cheap LUNA will be their parting gift to the community. Or they can stay and support the project.
The price of LUNA will be strong in the beginning, as the supply will be so constrained.
7/8 Seriously, only 12% of the total LUNA supply will be circulating for the first 6 months. And much of that will remain staked, not sold.
Dumping will be relatively minimal for the first 6 months, giving the chain a chance to prove itself before the cliffs hit.
8/8 So to be clear:
-LUNA price will probably be $5-10 once price settles after a month (see UST futures market);
-LUNA supply will be low for first six months;
-VCs and whales from Terra 1 get nothing for 1 year.
❤️ and RT to combat all the FUD going around!