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1. This legendary $36k call trade led me down a rabbit hole into the world of higher order option greeks to analyze this trade using past historical data. This was a good learning opportunity and I wanted to share some stuff I've been
2. The $36k JAN-29-2021 calls began trading on @DeribitExchange on Oct. 31, 2020 and had an initial delta of around 3%. At this time, BTCâs index price was trading around $13.5k. On this date, it seemed like a long shot that prices could do a ~3x within 90 days.
3. My guess is the buyer of these calls was trading a re-pricing of risk as opposed to speculating that the price of BTC would actually be >= $36k on Jan 29/2021 (one thing we can say with confidence is they were smart and used @tradeparadigm to avoid massive slippage).
4. This thread does an excellent job explaining how traders can make money by trading relative probabilities.
5. If the trader believed the market was pricing too low of a probability for an option reaching ITM, they could purchase options with the intention of selling them before maturity once the marketâs expectations become more bullish (as weâve seen over the past few weeks).
#bitcoin $36k calls which saw whale buying at 87% IV are finally seeing a large drop in OI... Sales coming in at 136%@CanteringClark @7ommyZero @samchepal @OptionPit @Options @DeribitExchange pic.twitter.com/HC12MA6V13
— GenesisVolatility (@GenesisVol) January 12, 2021
2. The $36k JAN-29-2021 calls began trading on @DeribitExchange on Oct. 31, 2020 and had an initial delta of around 3%. At this time, BTCâs index price was trading around $13.5k. On this date, it seemed like a long shot that prices could do a ~3x within 90 days.
3. My guess is the buyer of these calls was trading a re-pricing of risk as opposed to speculating that the price of BTC would actually be >= $36k on Jan 29/2021 (one thing we can say with confidence is they were smart and used @tradeparadigm to avoid massive slippage).
4. This thread does an excellent job explaining how traders can make money by trading relative probabilities.
BIG BTC TRADE!
— Rob Levy (@robbylevy) October 22, 2020
Yesterday there was a buyer of over 5000 BTC $50,000 calls expiring December 31, 2021.
Buyer paid from $1,100 up to $1,200 per call option.
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN??
Time for a thread \U0001f447\U0001f447\U0001f447
5. If the trader believed the market was pricing too low of a probability for an option reaching ITM, they could purchase options with the intention of selling them before maturity once the marketâs expectations become more bullish (as weâve seen over the past few weeks).
THREAD: I hope this mistake can be used as an opportunity to learn why this kind of language is bad.
The Minister isn't the only person to say things like this- I've even heard parents of kids with autism refer to other children as "normal" & have had to rearrange my face. (1/n)
The hard thing for those of us working in/ living with disability is that this is a mistake we'd NEVER make.
For others (who don't live and breathe disability), saying "normal children" is probably a slip of the tongue- not a betrayal of them secretly being awful people. (2/n)
Given her portfolio this is a bad gaffe for the Minister which has upset people. Rather than piling on, it would be better to use this as a rare opportunity for other people to learn why language matters so deeply in disability and why this kind of thing is so wounding. (3/n)
Children with disabilities or special educational needs have the same rights to education and participation as everyone else. The support they need to achieve this is not "extra help" it's the bare minimum responsibility of State to allow them participate in their own lives(4/n)
By separating children out based on disability and not guaranteeing their rights, we state that their rights only apply when it's convenient for us to meet their needs. Whether we like it or not, this is what we say when we abide appallingly underfunded services. (5/n)
The Minister isn't the only person to say things like this- I've even heard parents of kids with autism refer to other children as "normal" & have had to rearrange my face. (1/n)
Minister for Special Education Josepha Madigan describes children without additional needs as 'normal' | @Jessjcasey @aoifegracemoore https://t.co/4S1Y7vIRRC
— Irish Examiner (@irishexaminer) January 14, 2021
The hard thing for those of us working in/ living with disability is that this is a mistake we'd NEVER make.
For others (who don't live and breathe disability), saying "normal children" is probably a slip of the tongue- not a betrayal of them secretly being awful people. (2/n)
Given her portfolio this is a bad gaffe for the Minister which has upset people. Rather than piling on, it would be better to use this as a rare opportunity for other people to learn why language matters so deeply in disability and why this kind of thing is so wounding. (3/n)
Children with disabilities or special educational needs have the same rights to education and participation as everyone else. The support they need to achieve this is not "extra help" it's the bare minimum responsibility of State to allow them participate in their own lives(4/n)
By separating children out based on disability and not guaranteeing their rights, we state that their rights only apply when it's convenient for us to meet their needs. Whether we like it or not, this is what we say when we abide appallingly underfunded services. (5/n)