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Long-term expectations do not change as frequently as daily market fluctuations would make it seem.
A quick update on Treasury rates through the lens of the DKW model
*As of Dec. 31*
1/
In previous threads, I made the distinction between long-term secular trends in growth and inflation and shorter-term (2-6 quarters) trends in nGDP
Consensus continues to conflate the inflation story, mixing and matching long-term and short-term charts to fit what is generally a secular inflation narrative.
— Eric Basmajian (@EPBResearch) January 4, 2021
Here are my two cents to make the distinction clear.
1)
Right now, the long-term trends are unaltered because long-term trends just don't change that fast but we have a very strong cyclical upturn in the economy, centered primarily on the shift to goods consumption bolstering the manufacturing sector and industrial commodities.
3/

As long as the industrial sector continues to roar, TSY rates will have an upward bias as rates generally follow the trend in nGDP growth
A 10yr TSY has longterm expectations embedded in the rate so several qrters, while important, won't necessarily change the longterm trend
4/

This is confirmed by the Dec update to the DKW model which breaks down *actual* inflation expectations, the expected real short-term rate (real growth), term premium, liquidity premium etc.
The DKW model is one of many models that is useful but has many limitations.
5/
I prefer people who have different political opinions to me, but who are kind and decent, than people with the same political opinions as me but who are vindictive and bullying.
— James Melville (@JamesMelville) January 11, 2021
Step 1: $BTC has a huge correction. Every range starts with either a pump (or dump) and then follows with a dump (or pump). In this case, #Bitcoin pumped and is now pulling back. This is
If you want #Altseason, you should want $BTC to make a decent sized pullback. Ranges start after huge moves in both directions, IMO we need to see some cooling off before the ranging starts. Plz give 26k. #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/yLG9xSrbKz
— Altcoin Sherpa (@AltcoinSherpa) January 3, 2021
Step 2: $BTC ranges big once it finds a bottom. This will allow it to reaccumulate for a big summer run in 2021. This is HEALTHY IMO.

Step 3: Once $BTC finds a bottom and starts to grind up again, I expect $ALTS to do very very well in both alt/usd and alt/btc pairs. ALTSZN is almost always characterized by strong alt/btc pairs moving- I've already accumulated most and have done my final buying today and more.
$BTC.D typically has a very nice time during this time of the year. I was off on December prediction bc I thought $BTC was going to pull back by then but oh well! #Altcoins will start their pumping time VERY soon now.
$BTC.D: This is the chart for inverse #Bitcoin Dominance, the macro chart you need to check out for #Altcoins and when they have their runs. Still potentially more pain to go for $ALTS but I'm thinking that they will turn around strong when $BTC is done w. its run. pic.twitter.com/Q8ewTSRywp
— Altcoin Sherpa (@AltcoinSherpa) December 27, 2020
More information on what #Altseason is and $ALTS market
Big #Altcoin thread for $ALTS: Where are we at in the cycle, how long do we have, is this #ALTSEASON, what are the relationships like, all of that. $BTC #Bitcoin $ETH $LINK #Altcoins pic.twitter.com/nwVjgZu4fw
— Altcoin Sherpa (@AltcoinSherpa) November 9, 2020
On Friday, Biden pledged to DEFEAT THE NRA.
— NRA (@NRA) January 10, 2021
Biden wants to ban our semi-auto rifles, tax our guns/mags & more. He knows the only thing standing in his way to DISMANTLE THE 2ND AMENDMENT is NRA.
Gun owners must stay vigilant & be engaged in elections and the legislative process.
This NRA owns much of blame for the armed white supremacists trying to undermine American democracy: “The gun-rights movement cleared the path for insurrection. It blew a hole in the rule of law—and Donald Trump’s would-be soldiers clamored through it.”
Many members of the mob that rioted inside the Capitol lead or belong to so-called “gun-rights groups,” and were motivated by the warnings of tyranny issued by the @NRA.
Guns are an integral part of anti-government and white supremacist violence. In 2017, a joint report from the FBI and DHS said “firearms likely will continue to pose the greatest threat of lethal violence by [extremists] due to their availability and ease of use.”
Here’s an example. In October 2018, Donald Trump claimed a “caravan” of migrants was heading to the US from Mexico. NRATV, then the propaganda arm of the NRA, claimed Jewish billionaire George Soros was conspiring with Venezuela to send migrants here to influence the election.
@MSEdgeDev @EdgeDevTools @ChromiumDev
#tools #accessibility #browsers
Also, a thread: 👇🏼

Issues pane, powered by @webhintio, listing accessibility issues with explanations why these are problems, links to more info and direct links to the tools where to fix the problem. https://t.co/4K5RynHhbg

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Colour picker with contrast information offering colours that are AA/AAA compliant. You can also see compliant colours indicated by a line on the colour patch.
Note: the current algorithm fails to take font weight into consideration, that's why there will be a new one.

Vision deficit ("colour blindness") emulation. You can see what your product looks like for different visitors.
https://t.co/bxj1vySCAb
