Categories World

7 days 30 days All time Recent Popular
It has been 60 days since @AbiyAhmedAli declared #WarOnTigray. 60 days on, the war still rages across Tigray & the region is still under almost full communication, banking and transport block out. From the limited info that comes out, millions of people are starving 1


due to lack of access to power, cash to buy supplies as banks are still closed and bank accounts every Tigrayan suspended, & absence of trade activities. UNICEF reports that more than 2m children in Tigray are completely cut off from humanitarian assist https://t.co/ylWJQ0u0NF 2

Civilians killed and displaced: According to UN-OCHA, there are reportedly over a million internally displaced people with no humanitarian assistance. Families in their hundreds of 1000s are separated. We also hear that supplies of humanitarian assistance are deliberately

curtailed by the regime. Despite Eth-UN agreements to allow unfettered humanitarian access, areas outside Mekelle are inaccessible for humanitarian actors.

Ethnic profiling: travel restrictions have been placed on #Tigrayans across #Ethiopia.

Tigrayans across Ethiopia face #ethnicprofiling in their workplaces (many have been laid off or told to stay at home, mostly without pay), their homes are arbitrarily searched, are constantly harassed & arrested by security forces.

Impoverishing Tigray:
Most 🌍 comparisons for C19 go wrong as they don't considering demographics.

For countries I've managed to src detailed death data for, here's total d/1m numbers.

Sure,🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 look similar to 🇧🇷🇵🇪, but just look at the differences <60, 🇵🇪 4x larger.

So what does this mean?

1/9


Basically, fewer >80, means they've had⏫spread, and ⏫younger deaths, but👀equal.

Here ranking⏫2⏬by age are:
▶️20 countries
▶️NY city
▶️The World
That I've 👀at so far.

50% marks the median age, e.g.
🇮🇹 47
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿41
🌍30
🇳🇬18

So expecting similar deaths overall is silly.

2/9


So how have deaths actually played out?

Here are the props. by age to late Dec for places with detailed data.

Looks like NYC, 🇧🇷 & 🇵🇪 have seen far more in the young.

Now these all have younger pops. so is spread the same? Are diff just down to demographics?

3/9


No, many factors, the biggest age, and the likelihood of death in each age band.

🌍serology studies have sampled a similar risk in each 10yr band, with this going up 3 fold with each band.

Here is a plot of what🌍avgs are.

So what else do we need to worry about?

4/9


Factors like:
▶️healthcare: beds nos, better care, etc
▶️comorbidity rates: e.g. obesity, OECD 4x India, but only effects 15%
▶️lifestyle impacts: carehomes VS elderly@home
etc

But, many cancel out.
e.g. 1st🌍better healthcare, but fatter.

What about a lack of treatment?

5/9
In talking about 20th-Century Irish history, we should probably avoid sharp distinctions between Church, State, and Society, as though these were discrete entities, rather than things so organically interwoven that they were more or less expressions of the one thing.


The Republican movement piggybacked on the Church to win mass support for independence, say, while both Cosgrave and de Valera deliberately courted Catholic votes; in the privacy of their polling booths, Irish voters, overwhelmingly voted for socially conservative parties. /2

The Oireachtas and county councils etc were elected and staffed by ordinary Irish people, not people who landed from outer space or England or Rome, with ordinary Irish families and neighbours, and it was these who mandated, owned, funded, supervised, and supplied the homes. /3

As for clergy and religious, the country was full of seminaries and religious houses of formation; Ireland was basically a factory for priests, brothers, and nuns, all of whom were members of ordinary Irish families, and formed by the Irish values of the time. /4

Given how many homes had clergy and religious in the family, could anyone really hold that these were somehow separate? Yes, maybe your aunt was a 'good nun', or your uncle was a 'nice priest', but either way the point stands that they were ordinary Irish people. /5