Windlas Biotech IPO notes 💊

'What's in a name? that which we call a rose by any other name would smell as sweet' ~Shakespeare

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A thread 🧵👇

#IPOwithJST

1/ Basics about the IPO 👇

Incorporated in 2001

Fresh Issue of 165crs (50 for capex | 48 for Working capital | 20 for debt payment) + OFS of 237crs (Partially by promoter & PE Tano selling out as the fund tenure is up)

~ Total raise of 402crs
2/ About the company (Not a Biotech company)

A Contract manufacturer for formulation cos. (204 in total) for Indian markets & a small domestic OTC biz

3279 products, 4 plants with 700cr tablets/capsules capacity

Emphasis on chronic (60% of rev) & complex generics (70% of rev)
3/ History

Revenues:
FY11 - 100cr 👉 FY14 - 200cr 👉 FY21 - 400cr

Growth is similar to the Indian pharmaceutical sector, not gaining any market share even after increasing products.

Customers include Pfizer, Sanofi India, Eris, Cadila, etc.
4/ Competition: No Moat

400+ organized & 15000 unorganized players in the same space: 2% market share

Some of the things that can drive consolidation: Customers preferring better compliance

However, a single customer usually has 35-40 contract manufacturers for products.
5/ Top competitors

Scale: Players much larger also show a lack of any improvement in metrics.

Remains a low margin & high asset turnover business.
6/ Concentration

Top customer accounts for 11% of rev & Top 10 account for 58%

Interestingly, ramped up number of customers from 97 to 204 in the last 2yrs, however, the concentration remains constant.
7/ R&D

3-4crs spends: at 1% of sales, Increased complex portfolio to 934

Complex generic products have technical complexity in (i) manufacturing or handling of the API; or (ii) formulation; or (iii) route of delivery; or (iv) pairing with a device to make a drug-device combo.
8/ Manufacturing

Utilization at 35-40% currently, can go up to 60-65% before they would have to increase capacity again.
9/ Strategic areas going forward

- Will look for inorganic growth
- Industry to grow at 1.25-1.5x GDP: Increased capacities inline
- To invest 50crs in Injectables facility
- Increase customer base
- Scale-up Domestic OTC & trade generics business
10/ Financials

- Bad Cashflow conversion (20-30% EBITDA) due to huge WC investments
- Low margin business (4-5% net & 10-12% EBITDA & 35% gross margins)
- WC days to stay at 65-75 days
- Asset turnover at 4-5x & can take it to 6-7x
- Rev scaleup needs to be monitored
11/ Risks:

- Dependence on their customers doing well: 90% in B2B business
- Highly competitive, no moat & gruesome business
- Shady dealings with a promoter owned subsidiary: Windlas Healthcare
- No geographical diversification wrt plants.
12/

- Formulations players backwardly integrating their operations: Eris doing the same as it helps them maintain consistent quality & achieve higher margins
- API prices going up (No long term contract with supplier)
- Litigations 👇
- Loss-making Subsidiaries.
13/

At valuations of 2.3x P/S, 19x P/EBITDA & 65x PE, this is valued much higher than most Indian branded formulations are; leaving little to nothing on the table for the investors.

End of Thread.
Industry terms that are mentioned above explained 👇

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Recently, the @CNIL issued a decision regarding the GDPR compliance of an unknown French adtech company named "Vectaury". It may seem like small fry, but the decision has potential wide-ranging impacts for Google, the IAB framework, and today's adtech. It's thread time! 👇

It's all in French, but if you're up for it you can read:
• Their blog post (lacks the most interesting details):
https://t.co/PHkDcOT1hy
• Their high-level legal decision: https://t.co/hwpiEvjodt
• The full notification: https://t.co/QQB7rfynha

I've read it so you needn't!

Vectaury was collecting geolocation data in order to create profiles (eg. people who often go to this or that type of shop) so as to power ad targeting. They operate through embedded SDKs and ad bidding, making them invisible to users.

The @CNIL notes that profiling based off of geolocation presents particular risks since it reveals people's movements and habits. As risky, the processing requires consent — this will be the heart of their assessment.

Interesting point: they justify the decision in part because of how many people COULD be targeted in this way (rather than how many have — though they note that too). Because it's on a phone, and many have phones, it is considered large-scale processing no matter what.