Pharma learnings 101:

Higher the difficulty to manufacture, Lower the competition, Higher the pricing power.

Higher the regulatory oversight, the Bigger is the moat for those who comply.

#PharmawithJST

The Business Model of Indian Hospitals Simplified.

“We are blessed to be living in a country where the cost of healthcare is the lowest in the world.” ~Dr. Devi Shetty, Narayana Health

A thread 🧵👇

1/ In the Indian healthcare delivery market; the pharmaceuticals market is 20% of the pie. While Hospitals market is 3x that of theirs.

Big opportunity size, however, is it investment-worthy? Let's see.

2/ Before we get into the details:

Do brush up on the different abbreviations associated with the Hospitals & the Pharmaceuticals industry in General, for example ALOS, ARPOB, NABH, etc.

Inpatient (IPD): Need to get hospitalized
Outpatient (OPD): No need to get hospitalized

3/ The hospitals are of basically 3 types:

Primary: For OPD only (no beds), sends to below hospitals for further treatment

Secondary: IPD & OPD in medium-sized general hospitals

Tertiary: Can treat all complex ailments & huge in size, Major listed companies are focused here.

4/ Hospitals can also be classified based on Ownership & management:

Here, the listed companies either are in private or manage hospitals owned by others (Asset light business, due to the very high land prices in metro cities)

Observing a lot of selling from employees of small & mid-cap IT companies; Recency bias or they know better?

A small mediocre IPO from the space got the attention of a superstar: Shuffling for a quick buck?

Haven’t the valuations baked in all positives?

Glenmark Life Sciences (GLS) IPO notes 🔬

Plans to take the capacity to 1762KL (currently 762KL) in the next 4 years.

Hit the 'retweet' & help us educate more investors

A thread 🧵👇

#IPOwithJST

1/ About the company

Developer & manufacturer of high value, non- commoditized APIs (complex & low competition) in chronic therapeutic areas: CVS, CNS, pain management & diabetes, etc

Basic details about the IPO 👇

Note: After paying off liabilities, 150crs remain for capex.

2/ The Journey

Established the API business in FY02

Since 2015, Have not received any adverse reactions from regulators (USFDA, PMDA) in the total 38 audits & inspections & Have gone through 432 customer audits.

Filled 403 DMFs & CEP registration across markets globally.

3/ Trends that the company is betting on & what works for them

China+1: India API market growth (10% cagr projected from FY21-26) will outpace the industry: Driven by specialty API+ Strong domestic market

Highest no. of USFDA approved API facilities & % of DMFs filled

4/ Interesting facts

- 120 molecules: $142B market size
- Targetting 8 to 10 new molecules every yr (Key differentiator over time)
- 66% of sales from regulated markets
- Works with 16 of the top 20 generic cos.
- Top 7 customers: 5 to 15yrs old

What if I told you to submit your PhD report by the 1st year of your BTech in engineering.

That’s what people do when they try to find multi-baggers in their 1st business cycle.

On Cyclicals

All hell breaks loose once the growth slows down; as every investor rushes to exit at the same time. The decline is 5x faster than the rise.

Further to my Tweet from 2019. The Sunspot activity is projected to catch up. Read the original tweet for the context.

Image courtesy: https://t.co/AenFMQbzdL https://t.co/4gaKJP8S4G

A thread on the summary points of webinar by @ishmohit1 at @ias_summit last week on Navin Fluorine moderated by @MashraniVivek & @cautkarshpandey

@ias_summit @MashraniVivek @cautkarshpandey Overview of Fluorine Industry:
Fluorine is made out of raw material which is known as Fluorspar. China contributes to 60% of mining of Fluorspar. Due to environmental concerns, China has cut back on fluorspar mining and processing. Fluorine is replacing toxic chemicals.

@ias_summit @MashraniVivek @cautkarshpandey Different types of products within the flourine industry:
• Fluorospeciality: Agro, Pharma, Industrial and other uses. High Margins
• Fluoropolymers: Commodity-grade and value-added. Commoditized + High Margins in VAP
•Inorganic Fluorides: steel and glass industry. Low Margins

@ias_summit @MashraniVivek @cautkarshpandey • Industrial chemicals like Chloromethane.
• Pharma Propellent: used in Metered Dose Inhalers as a propellant

@ias_summit @MashraniVivek @cautkarshpandey Navin Fluorine:
Navin is a business which is a backward integrated and for Fluorspar they have a tie up with Gujarat fluorochemicals and and GMDC and they source all their floors from Africa.

#Fed predicts higher growth and higher inflation , #dx corrected sharply , If Dx eventually maintains below 91, Emerging market bull run may resume
#Nifty

5 RULES TO IDENTIFY A STRATEGY THAT WORKS:

There are plenty of trading systems available on the internet and there are many trading systems providers.

But how do you know which ones are going to be potentially profitable?

1/ PREMISE OF THE STRATEGY:

The most important factor in any trading system is the premise or philosophy or logic on which it is built.

The systems must be able to identify certain repetitive behaviors which are inherent to any market.

An example could be #trend or #momentum or #mean reversion etc.

The magnitude of these behaviors could vary over time but they are natural to any markets.

Better yet, you should have multiple systems that attack these behaviors...

This is what I call the Hybrid Approach !!!

2./ SIMPLER, THE BETTER:

Once you have understood the logic behind the system, make sure it's based on simple rules.

If there are more rules, it’s a red flag that the systems are probably over-optimized or curve fit to past data which is unlikely to work in the future.

Most of my strategies have no more than 5-6 rules.

That’s it.

Keep it Simple, Stupid!

Strong Monopolies:

IRCTC 100% Market share in Rail Network.

IEX >90% market share in power trading.

Zydus wellness >90% market share in sugar free product.

Eicher motors >85% market share in 250cc bikes category.

MCX >85% market share in commodity trading.

Coal India >80% market share in coal production in India.

ITC >75% market share in cigarettes.

Honda Siel >75% in portable power generators.

Hindustan Zinc >75% market share in primary zinc industry.

Asahi India Glass >70% market share in automotive glass.

NRB Bearings >70% market share in needle roller bearings.

Pidilite >65% market share in adhesives.

CAMS >65% market share in RTA within mutual fund industry.

Time Technoplast >65% market share in polymer based industrial packaging.

Concor >65% market share in domestic container cargo transport.

Exide >60% market share in lead batteries.

Naukri >60% market share in the Indian job market space.

Praj >60% market share in ethanol plant installing.

Indiamart Intermesh >55% market share in the online B2B Classified space.

Borosil Renewables >55% market share in Lab glass.

Vst Tillers >50% market share in
Power tillers.

Delta corp >50% in online poker games.

Vinati Organics >50% market share in IBB.