Once in a while one should study the company which lacked the execution, which always over-promised and under delivered. Check how market valued it over the period of time. As it gives us the framework to avoid potential capital allocation mistakes i future. 🧪⚗️

#MTAR Technologies - Leader in Niche Precision Engineering 🛩️🛩️

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CMP - ₹ 1803

1. Company Overview

MTAR Technologies is a leader in the precision engineering industry. They serve clients in the Defence, Space, Nuclear and Clean Energy industries. The company is engaged in the manufacture of

mission-critical precision assemblies and components with close tolerance levels of 5-10 microns.

2. Business Segments

The company operates in 4 segments: Nuclear, Defence, Space and Clean Energy.

Nuclear: In the Nuclear Segment, the company is partnered with Nuclear

Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL) which controls all operational, under construction and planned reactors in the country given India does not allow private participation. They manufacture products which are highly critical to the functioning of nuclear reactors.

They have 14 kinds of products with a wide range of applications.

Defence: In this segment, the company has undertaken complex assemblies for the DRDO, such as the base shroud assembly for Agni missiles and the assembly of Secondary Injection Thrust Vector Control (SITVC)

#Privy Speciality Chemical - Superior Business Model ?

A Detailed Thread 🧵🧵

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Price : ₹ 1986 🌹🥀

1. Privi started manufacturing in 1992 with only two products, now having more than 50 products manufacturing at Mahad and Gujrat facilities.

2. India's leading manufacturer, supplier and exporter of aroma and fragrance chemicals.

3. Privi has developed a backward integrated value chain and manufactures value-added products from the waste generated during the manufacturing process

Management

Industry Outlook
1. Aroma chemicals which form the building blocks of the F & F industry is a size of about USD 5.5bn. This multi-billion-dollar industry impacts daily life for consumers worldwide, often on multiple fronts: From the toothpaste we use, to the coffee, tea,

#Neogen Chemicals - Niche Bromine & Lithium Manufacturer ?

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CMP - ₹1596

1. Introduction

Neogen chemicals ltd. was founded in 1991 by technocrat Harish Kanani.The company has expertise in bromine and lithium chemistries.
The products manufactured are served for pharmaceuticals, agrochemicals, engineering industries,

speciality chemicals companies in India, Europe, Usa, and Japan.
Increasing the revenue contribution from Custom Synthesis and Contract Manufacturing segments.

2. Promoters
IIT graduate and technocrat promoter Mr Haridas Kanani had set up India's first bromine plant in 1968, but it failed as the plant was hit by floods caused by Morbi dam. Lack of knowledge in business kept him away from insuring the plants.

Later years he worked as an engineering consultant for manufacturers to set up the bromine plants for others.
In 1989 the technocrat decided to set up Neogen chemicals Pvt. Ltd. and started the manufacturing of bromine compounds.

Unique Business Model
#Tipsindustries

CMP- Rs 1296

A Thread 🧵

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@NeilBahal

Topis covered:
1. Tips Industries Overview
2.Music Segment
3.Monetization
4. Tips Business Model
5.Acquisition Cost
6. Tips Film Business
7. Tips YouTube

8. Why Should Artists Choose Tips Over Other Labels?
9.Financials
10.Future Growth
11.Content Acquisition
12. Conclusion

1. Tips Industries Overview
It was founded by Kumar S. Taurani and Ramesh S. Taurani in 1975.
In 1975, the Taurani brothers used to trade

in LP’s (Long Playing Phonograph Records) for three of the biggest companies in India – HMV, Music India & CBS. By 1977, they had become the biggest dealers for these companies in Western India.
Driven by the ambition of both the brothers started their own record label.

TIPS Industries Limited is a leading Indian music label which creates and monetises music. Apart from music segment it is also into Film Production,Film Distribution & Film Promotion

2. Music Segment
Tips has an extensive catalog of film, non-film, devotional, pop & remixes

Tips has a library with more than 29,000 songs, Tips has a very fresh catalog with songs released in 2000 and most major hits of the 90s. Tips has a major Atif Aslam Library.

3. Monetization
Tips monetizes its songs just like other music labels i.e through distribution deals

1/ @mjmauboussin's book Expectations Investing is a masterclass in valuation & strategy

His framework uses price-implied expectations to assess companies, an elegant way to invert valuation

https://t.co/kESplMN3nW

To practice these concepts, I wrote a case study on Chipotle⤵️

2/ Chipotle is the leading fast casual restaurant chain across the US, with almost 3,000 owned & operated locations

They benefit from strong unit economics and a trusted brand

We'll discuss consensus estimates, competitive landscape, and expected

3/ We must first identify the price-implied expectations based on key value drivers

After finding the consensus estimates, investors can seek opportunities in the expectations - looking for a divergence from the market's assumptions

Let's start with Chipotle's sales growth

4/ Chipotle has grown revenues from $3.9B to $7.55B over the past 5 years, at a 5 year CAGR of 14.1%

Analysts estimate a 13.7% consensus growth rate based on 5-7% same store sales growth, 8% additional store openings per year, and steady digital sales contribution

5/ Next is operating profit margin, which measures profitability from core operations

Chipotle has slowly been growing its margin, now at 10.67%

Analysts expect high margins of 15.75%, with incremental profits from digital orders and unit-level margin growth contributing

One of the best debates I have seen in recent history between @SunilBSinghania and Saurabh Mukherjea.

TOPIC: Has P/E lost its relevance?

I resonate more with Sunil’s side. Here’s a thread 🧵 on the main points made by him:

@varinder_bansal @safiranand @myvaluepicks

1/ Importance of PE

PE is not the only factor but an important factor.

Ultimately the growth has to justify how much PE are you paying for the company.

There cannot be an unlimited PE multiple based on some xyz parameters.

2/ Hindsight Bias:

In hindsight we can say that from 2001 to 2021, a company grew at 25 % and we should have given a very high PE to it.

But on the day when you buy, you don’t know that the company is going to grow at 25% for the next 20 years.

3/ Millennial preference:

Things have become more competitive.

New generation don’t really care much about legacy.

Convenience and affordability matters more.

The longevity and sustainability of growth has changed dramatically.

4/ Company that require a big investment - There is opportunity to invest big.

Company 1: Mkt Cap of 50 cr
Company 2: Mkt cap of 1 lakh cr

50c r company can become 3x, 1 lakh cr company cannot become 2x.

On absolute basis you end up making 5 cr vs 5k cr in 1lakh cr company.

Journey from deep-hatred (नफ़रत) to deep-love (इश्क़) creates massive valuations re-rating from below 1x sales and 1x book value to anything from 5x to 20x sales and a multiple of book value.

Rivian ($0 revenue, -$1.6 billion net income) now has a higher market cap than Starbucks ($29 billion revenue, $4.2 billion net income) and Target ($100 billion revenue, $6.3 billion net income).

$RIVN $SBUX $TGT

Data via @ycharts

A word of advice and caution. When you buy a High Pe stock. Make sure that you are very certain about the growth. Plenty of good and bad examples

Eicher=Growth stopped, Got derated.

Pi Industries= At 52+Pe in 2015, growth continued (5bagger since then)

Symphony=Growth stopped as more competitors copied them, painful time correction.

Astral=Kept growing and entering newer adjacencies since 2015 when it was at 60+ Pe. (Been a 10 bagger since then)

Page Industries=Growth stopped as the company matured. No returns for last 4 yrs.

Bajaj Finance= Kept growing (barring Pandemic). Kept rerating with the earnings growth.

HDFC Life=Been absurdly valued since 2018. Leading to very poor returns.

Relaxo=Kept getting rerated on back of earnings growth.

High Pe means market is expecting strong earnings growth. What happens when it fails to come? Likely derating or painful time correction.

Paying a high multiple, you need to make sure that the growth is certain.

What I do to grasp such opportunities or to ignore them is to have a mix of deeply valued companies (like some financials I own) with Companies where I think they will grow at 30-35%+ (Navin).

This is what my framework is:-

Pf=High Pe+Already seen value+Strong earnings growth