Once in a while one should study the company which lacked the execution, which always over-promised and under delivered. Check how market valued it over the period of time. As it gives us the framework to avoid potential capital allocation mistakes i future. 🧪⚗️

Clinical Trial Process | A Thread🧵

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We have discussed the drug discovery process in a previous 🧵. In this 🧵 we will attempt to shed some light on the clinical trials process to enhance our understanding of the drug discovery process

Topics Covered :
1. What are clinical trials
2. Why are they conducted
3. Phase 0 Trials
4. Phase 1 Trials
5. Types of studies in Phase 1
6. Phase 2 Trials
7. Phase 3 Trials
8. Filing of NDA
9. Phase 4 Trials
10. Success rates

1. What are clinical trials ?
A type of research study that tests how well new medical approaches work in people. These studies test new methods of screening, prevention, diagnosis, or treatment of a disease. Before doing a clinical trial, investigators conduct preclinical

research using human cell cultures or animal models. For example, they might test whether a new medication is toxic to a small sample of human cells in a laboratory.

2. Why are they conducted ?
Clinical trials are conducted to evaluate if a drug is safe for consumption by

human beings and if it is actually effective in curing or preventing a medical condition or disease. Keep in mind, this will be the first time that the drug will be tested on human beings.

3. Phase 0 trials
Phase 0 trials are also known as human micro-dosing study.

#Privy Speciality Chemical - Superior Business Model ?

A Detailed Thread 🧵🧵

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Price : ₹ 1986 🌹🥀

1. Privi started manufacturing in 1992 with only two products, now having more than 50 products manufacturing at Mahad and Gujrat facilities.

2. India's leading manufacturer, supplier and exporter of aroma and fragrance chemicals.

3. Privi has developed a backward integrated value chain and manufactures value-added products from the waste generated during the manufacturing process

Management

Industry Outlook
1. Aroma chemicals which form the building blocks of the F & F industry is a size of about USD 5.5bn. This multi-billion-dollar industry impacts daily life for consumers worldwide, often on multiple fronts: From the toothpaste we use, to the coffee, tea,

#IGX (Indian Gas Exchange) Revenue Calculation

Watch this video to understand #IEX(Indian Energy Exchange) Business model
Link : https://t.co/rqll7Ct9Cn

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#Neogen Chemicals - Niche Bromine & Lithium Manufacturer ?

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CMP - ₹1596

1. Introduction

Neogen chemicals ltd. was founded in 1991 by technocrat Harish Kanani.The company has expertise in bromine and lithium chemistries.
The products manufactured are served for pharmaceuticals, agrochemicals, engineering industries,

speciality chemicals companies in India, Europe, Usa, and Japan.
Increasing the revenue contribution from Custom Synthesis and Contract Manufacturing segments.

2. Promoters
IIT graduate and technocrat promoter Mr Haridas Kanani had set up India's first bromine plant in 1968, but it failed as the plant was hit by floods caused by Morbi dam. Lack of knowledge in business kept him away from insuring the plants.

Later years he worked as an engineering consultant for manufacturers to set up the bromine plants for others.
In 1989 the technocrat decided to set up Neogen chemicals Pvt. Ltd. and started the manufacturing of bromine compounds.

Creating segments and classifications about what really works in a sector can help you massively.

EG:- IT is just not about IT, there are Product companies, SAAS Businesses, services companies, ER&D companies and Corporate Learning Companies.

Banking&Finance is just not about Large Private Banks ⤵️

There are regional banks, Small Finance Bank, Public Sector Banks, Regional NBFCs, Deposit taking NBFCs, Housing Finance companies, Microfinance companies, CV Financiers etc.

Chemicals are not just speciality chemicals ⤵️

There are Bulk Chemicals like Phenol, Speciality Chemical and different chemistry chains expert like Fluorine, Bromine, Phosgene etc. Then there are niche product manufacturers like SDA or ATBS.

Retail is just not about Retail ⤵️

There are various segments within retail too! Someone might be doing value retail, someone might be doing luxury retail, Some companies might go for a COCO model (Company owned+Company Operated). Some might go for FOFO model (Franchise owned)

Pharma Contract Manufacturing has various types too ⤵️

Some Like Windlas are just CMO's for generics (low margin), some are present throughout the value chain Like Syngene (Complete CRAMS), some are just in Contract Development and manufacturing of intermediates (Suven)

As investors, we need to qualify the companies in our portfolio.

If they don't meet our cut, we don't invest in them.

Apart from the eventual/current profitability and strong balance sheet, growth is my top requirement.

Here's why:

1/ If a business does not grow, its share price will not grow.

In a corporate lifecycle, a company experiences most growth during its expansion phase. That's where most returns are being created.

This is why high growth companies deliver huge returns.

source: Ravi Kumar

2/ The compounding of growth rates is often underestimated.

It can do wonders for your company.

Growing at 30% turns $1 to $13.79 by Y10.

Growing at 10% turns $1 to $2.59 by Y10.

The share price returns a company can generate based on this is significant.

3/ Here's an example: Crowdstrike $CRWD

It grew its ARR from $71 million in 1Q 2018 to $1,731 million in 4Q 2022.

The magic of compounding.

4/ Simple Back Test

I used my Capital IQ to find out what are the stocks that delivered more than 10x returns in the past 5 years and have at least a market cap of $600m USD.

There are 13 companies.

$APPS $XPEL $TSLA

Good time to buy is when a theme or segment is ignored by the market and not when it is popular.

When you buy what is popular when it is popular, need to forego returns for few years.

@ramnath2015 DCF is a lot of bullshit.
5 yrs back u could have run a DCF in ITC and come to great conclusion but over the last 5 yrs the youth globally has moved away from cigarettes to weed

@soicfinance @ishmohit1 Learning and taking inspiration from you sir..🙏🏼🙏🏼