Trading Education Thread time 1/8

There are really only two types of trading styles:

1. Mean Reversion Trading
2. Breakout Trading

All other "styles" are merely indicator-based trading systems.

This thread will specifically discuss Breakout Trading

The Truth About Trading (Thread)

1/ Risk Management & Consistency

Everything works in the stock market just NOT all the time. You can trade RSI, MACD, Bollinger bands, Volume, and they all will win for a period of time and lose for a period of time.

2/ YOUR JOB as a trader is to MANAGE RISK. Every good trading strategy WILL boil down to a 50-60% accuracy overtime and I know this from 1000’s of hours of back testing.

3/ To be profitable, follow this SIMPLE LAW:

AVERAGE WINNER > AVERAGE LOSER
Below is a table I’ve created showing the total number of winning trades (per 100) you need to win to be profitable:

4/ As the risk to reward increased the required win rate goes down. The sweet spot I’ve found is scaling out your positions and cutting your losers to get you close to 2X your average loser. In this case, you only need to win 34/100 trades in order to be profitable. YOU CAN DO IT

5/ The key to success in trading (repeat everyday):
1 – I have no attachment to any stock or instrument, my job is solely to manage risk
2 – I am a Casino; I take all trades that fit my trading plan because I know my edge is profitable

🎲 How to play trigger watchlists 🎲

1. How/When to enter:

This is NOT an exact science, there is no way to avoid fakeouts. These are KEY levels, and for that reason, provide strong moves. However, they can be hard to break due to their significance. You must manage risk.

There are two strategies I follow.
a) Conservative: Wait for a 5 minute candle to close through the trigger level. Ex: if an $AMD put trigger is under 100 and 5 minute candle closes at 10:45AM at 99.85, take the position.

b) Risky: Playing the first sign of follow through. Ex: $AMD closes 5m candle at 10:45AM at 100.15 - No trigger. At 10:47AM, $AMD fails 100 support and closes 10:47 1m candle at 99.80. I would likely take a position off of key support failure.

2. Fakeouts/Stop losses

Taking losses is inevitable in trading. Our job is to minimize them. My rule here is -10% hard stop loss because you can always re-add the position.

Suppose you take a position from Ex a) $AMD immediately reverses and closes 10:50 5m candle at 110.15…

Your position is red, likely down ~10%. Cut the loser and reassess. Your reason for playing was the 100 breakdown, it is now INVALID. As soon as your thesis becomes invalid, cut, take a deep breath, reassess, watch.

Mini thread of my strategy.

Disclaimer: I truly don’t feel qualified to share “my strategy”. There are other better experienced traders you should listen to. But here’s what I trade: MOMENTUM, FLOW & CNBC pump 😃

Every night I manually go through 50-60 tickers and find high probability setup based on previous day/week’s action. I chose to manually go through tickers as it helps me continue to learn my frequently traded tickers, their “personality” etc.

I set alerts based on levels I identify. Pivot levels such as previous days high, low, close etc. I tend to set my alerts few $$ below where I’d actually want to enter a trade. This way I can have time to pull the chart up, find the right contract without rushing into any trade

I’ve studied candle sticks and have particular candlesticks I tend to keep an eye out for when I go through my watchlist. Inside days, morning/evening star, spinning tops, hammer, harami, marubozu are some faves. Also note stocks with high volume and strong trend day.

I’m not big on TA as I find it to be too subjective. However, certain patterns that are obvious and that I can identify without squinting too hard, I take note of- bear flags, bulls flags, range breaks, obvious trend lines. I don’t force trends and patterns that don’t exist 😂

Let’s say you start with 1k and your win rate is 70%. You take 30% profit and 30% loss fixed. End of 100 trades you net around 45k excluding fees.

If your win rate is 60% you end up with 2k.

What’s the lesson? Be selective and keep your win rate high. You’ll win

#driptip

How to ensure win rate is high?

Buy calls at support and puts at resistance

Trade highly liquid names to avoid slippage

Take advantage of breakouts
I’ll suggest just scalp every day

Don’t wait for 30% loss, use time based stop loss. 5m trade didn’t work, get out

#driptip

How to ensure you loose less?

Stop over trading

Stop chasing or FOMO

Stop buying weeklies on Thu

Don’t wait for 30% profit target. If it’s not working, sell for 10%

Stop trading strikes with wide spread

Which setups will work for this strategy?

Find setups with higher ATR and identify a trend 30 min after market open, ride the trend

Find setups with higher relative volume first 30 mins and ride trend

Find setups right at 10m 34-50 EMA and ride trend

#driptip

How to scan with these parameters?

Use finviz
Use trading view
Use thinkorswim (it’s free)