BC TRADING
Saved by @CodyyyGardner

Circle of Competence 101:

@SahilBloom x @jackbutcher

↓

 1/

A Circle of Competence is the set of topic areas that align with a person's expertise.

If the entire world of information were to be expressed in a circle, an individual's Circle of Competence is the small sub-circle that represents their expertise.
2/

The idea surfaced in the 1996 BH annual letter.

"You don’t have to be an expert on every company...you only have to be able to evaluate companies within your circle of competence. The size of that circle is not very important; knowing its boundaries, however, is vital."
3/

A Circle of Competence is built over time.

It is built through experience, reading, dedicated study, and effort.

It is dynamic, not static.

It can expand as you deepen your knowledge in new areas. It can contract if you fail to nurture your existing areas of expertise.
4/

To engage this mental model in your life, there are two key processes to go through:

(1) Identify what falls within your circle
(2) Identify the boundaries of your circle

(1) is all about figuring out what you know, while (2) is about humbly admitting what you don’t.
5/

Let’s look at a few examples of where we see the Circle of Competence in action and how it can help you win.

In investing?

Berkshire Hathaway provides the classic example of investing success from sticking within the boundaries of your Circle of Competence.
6/

Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger have consistently passed on investment opportunities that fell outside of their respective Circles of Competence.

At times, it led to what might look like big misses, including failing to see the potential and invest in Google and Amazon.
7/

But while you hear about these misses (“the anti-portfolio”), you don’t read about all of the bad decisions it saved them from making.

As Munger once said, you can become a consistent winner by “trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent."
8/

In business?

The best operators know their core competencies and are honest about their incompetencies.

The visionary CEOs hire field general, execution-focused COOs.

The field general CEOs hire visionary product leaders.

Own your competencies, outsource the rest.
9/

So how can you implement the Circle of Competence model into your life?

First, identify your circle and its boundaries.

What topics do you know more about than most people?

What topics do others look to you on?

What are you constantly excited by and learning more about?
10/

Next, be ruthlessly honest with yourself about that circle and its boundaries.

Build checks into your decision process that pressure test whether you are remaining true to your Circle of Competence.

Consistently sticking to your circle will lead to good long-term outcomes.
11/

Finally, keep expanding and deepening your Circle of Competence.

Embrace intellectual curiosity!

Is there a new topic you are excited about? Read everything you can get your hands on.

We live in an unprecedented era of access to information.
12/ You no longer need to pay a big tuition bill to learn something new.

You can seek out thought leaders, ask them questions, read their articles, listen to them speak.

It is truly remarkable. Take advantage!

You may just find that your Circle of Competence begins to grow.
Words by @SahilBloom
Visuals by @visualizevalue

More from Jack Butcher

Jack Butcher
Jack Butcher
@jackbutcher
10 reasons your product will fail.

Words: @BrianNorgard

↓

1. Too complex


2. Can't be easily described
BUSINESS
Jack Butcher
Jack Butcher
@jackbutcher
Hindsight in 2020: (10 thoughts)

Relationships > everything:

My relationship with @celiapreihs is the foundation of all the good things in my life, and has amplified the quality of hundreds of relationships with people I've got to know and learn from this year.

Shiny objects make us duller:

The grass is always greener until you're standing on it. "No" is still the highest ROI word in my vocabulary.

The internet is very, very big:

Make something work for one person (could also be yourself), then work on distribution.

Scale is seductive but you can't get it if you don't have something people want.

You can't please everyone:

If you could, there would be no point anyway - it's tough when someone doesn't love your work but it's how markets function.

The blows hit harder in the early rounds, just keep getting up.
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Jack Butcher
Jack Butcher
@jackbutcher
Building Principles:

↓

1/

Value = doing things that other people don't do, won't do or can't do.

"You get paid in direct proportion to the difficulty of problems you solve" — Elon Musk


2/

Service is high-touch result generation (building experience), product is low-touch result generation (scaling experience).


3/

In a world of infinite distraction, focus is the only path to freedom.


4/

Sell time to buy experience, sell experience to buy time.

“If you don't find a way to make money while you sleep, you will work until you die.” — Warren Buffett
SOFTWARE , ALL
Jack Butcher
Jack Butcher
@jackbutcher
Building a Personal Monopoly: (thread)

How to combine competence, curiosity, and character to create a category of one.

↓


1/ Competence

If we want anyone to spend their time, attention or money on anything of ours, we must first be competent.

Lots of people are competent, so there's lots of competition here.

Let's say this is "school teachers"


2/ Competence + Curiosity

If we add curiosity to the mix, competition starts to thin.

This separates the generalist practitioners from the irrationally passionate.

Let's say this is "school teachers who are curious about learning innovation"


3/ Competence + Curiosity + Character

Now combinatorics put us in category of one territory.

Let's say this is "school teachers who are curious about learning innovation, building a gamified school inspired by SpaceX's Ad Astra." (real example: @anafabrega11)


4/ Making it Tangible

All this is great until it comes to communicating it to the rest of the world.

Which is why bad packaging kills amazing ideas.

Writing, design, marketing — our job here is to lose as little as possible in translation from the intangible to the tangible.
ART
Jack Butcher
Jack Butcher
@jackbutcher
Why promoting yourself/your business/your ideas feels uncomfortable:

You must repeat things that are obvious to you until they become obvious to others.

This is why most people hire marketers or outsource the amplification of their message.

The problem with that is no one is an invested as you are, and no one knows your message like you do.

And why those who break through their discomfort reach an escape velocity that eludes most.

This is a difficult and unnatural process, hence the upside on the other side.

Another way to think about it is the famous shelf analogy:

No one wants a drill they want a hole, no one wants a hole they want a shelf, no one wants a shelf they want to a place to put books to look smart, etc.

People care about the 2nd, 3rd, 4th order effects of your work.
MARKETING

More from Trading

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@SarangSood
THREAD ON DELTA (The most important GREEK)

Many traders don't indulge in understanding GREEKS because they think they are very complicated.

There are 4 primary greeks:

Delta
Gamma
Theta
Vega

In my experience, understanding DELTA is enough to take benefit of greeks.(1/n)

Delta measures the rate of change of options price based on the directional movement of the underlying.

So this means we can know in advance (theoretically) how much an option will move with the underlying & so we can prepare our strategies accordingly. (2/n)

Value of delta varies between 0 & 1 for calls and -1 & 0 for puts. This figure tells how much an option price will change, when the underlying moves 1 point. So example a delta of .2 of call indicates that for every 1 point change in the underlying, the price will move .2 (3/n)

For option writers who want to trade in neutral strategies like straddle, strangle, ratios, calendar etc, delta can be very helpful. So be it any complex strategy, knowing the NET DELTA can give you an idea of how your strategy will perform in different scenarios. (4/n)

Net delta is just the sum of the deltas of all the bull options (call+ & put-) minus the bear options (call- & put+).

So if we can track this, we will always be in the know of how much exposed our position is. It makes it easier then to adjust our position. (5/n)
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LearnLifeWealthTravel | Dream Big, Think Growth !!
LearnLifeWealthTravel ...
@AnyBodyCanFly
Model Portfolio 3

Time Horizon 3 years or earlier ~ Depends on if the stock performs significantly well in faster time. Review of business performance important every quarter.

This portfolio is suitable for aggressive investors who believe in risk taking and look for growth

Name %allocation

~ Laurus Labs 15%
~ Balaji Amines 15%
~ Deepak Nitrite 15%
~ Kopran 10%
~ Pokarna 10%
~ Eveready 10%
~ Dynpro 10%
~ Manorama 5%
~ Adani Enterprises 5%
~ SHIL 5%

~ Laurus Labs
~ Kopran

My top two picks in pharma sector are Laurus Lab and Kopran.

These have good earnings predictability, growth visibility & significant undervaluation. Growing from small to medium and to big.

Earnings can grow and valuations multiple can grow accordingly.

~ Balaji Amines
~ Deepak Nitrite
~ Dynpro

These three are my top picks in Chemicals.

These have good earnings predictability, growth visibility & significant undervaluation. Growing from small to medium and to big.

Earnings can grow and valuations multiple can grow accordingly

~ Pokarna
~ Eveready
~ SHIL

These three are my top picks in Home Consumption.

These have good earnings predictability, growth visibility & significant undervaluation. Growing from small to medium and to big.

Earnings can grow and valuations multiple can grow accordingly.
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Vikrant
Vikrant
@Trading0secrets
Trendline is basically use for majoring trend 📈 of any stock.

It is also useful for indentify demand & supply ....

Here it's applications 👇

➡️It is formed when a diagonal line can be drawn between a minimum of three or more price pivot points.

And that all three points must tested equally.

example 👇 #sis


➡️ Trendline is mainly useful for identifying trend 👇

⚡Uptrend - #happiestmind

⚡Downtrend - #bluedart


➡️ It is also useful for support & resistance.

Ex - ⚡ #happiestmind

⚡ #omaxe


➡️ If three point 📍have not be touched clearly then it is wrong ❌

Ex - ⚡ #bluedart

⚡#zeemedia
TRADING , TRENDLINE , ALL
Gordon Gekko
Gordon Gekko
@GordunGekko
A small thread on momentum investing and how I practice it.

I use the Nifty 500 universe for selecting my momentum stocks. Nifty 500, as the name suggests, has 500 companies in it. WRONG !!!! It actually has 501 companies. Yes, I double-checked 🙂 So, these 501 companies is

my talent pool (if you will) from which I select the 50 best candidates that I want to bet my money on.

Ok. So, exactly, did I go about doing that.

Step 1: Start with Nifty 500 universe (501 companies)

Step 2: Eliminate all those companies which have a listing history of

less than 1 year. This eliminated 25 companies (see table).

Step 3: For the remaining 476 companies, I computed their last 12-month rolling price returns (meaning, comparison of their price as on March 31, 2022 as compared to that as on March 31, 2021, and then computing the %


gain that each of those stocks have earned. I found out the following:

a) Average return of all the 476 companies was 43.27% (meaning if their average price as on March 31, 2021 was 100, then their average price as on March 31, 2022 was 143.27)

b) Out of these 476 companies

140 companies, gave a negative return.

c) Out of the balance 336 companies, 46 companies gave single-digit returns

d) Out of the balance 290 companies, 101 companies gave a return between 10-30%

e) Out of the balance 189 companies, 55 gave returns between 30-50%
TRADING , TRADING GUIDES
Gurjot Ahluwalia
Gurjot Ahluwalia
@gurjota
I analyzed 25+ years of #Nifty data to better understand bear markets 🐻

Why?

Given the recent market sell-off and bearish stance of market participants, history and data is your best guide to prepare if we're headed for a bear market.

Thread with findings below 🧵👇
1/n


But first, do you know the definition of a bear market?

When any index falls 20% or more from it's all time high, it is termed to be in a #bearmarket 🐻

How do you calculate length of a bear market? The time duration in days from previous all-time high to market bottom.

2/n


🇮🇳 Nifty last 25 years (1997-2022*)

Number of Bear Markets = 8

Average drawdown % = -38.5%

Average bear market duration = 246 days (8 m)

Key takeaway - Bear markets occur every ~3 years and take on average 8 months to bottom

3/n


1997 and 2006 saw the fastest bear markets with Nifty correcting 20-30% in just ~1 month.

Unbelievably, 1997 had 2 bear markets! Just imagine suffering 20% drawdowns twice in a few months!

Mar 2020 Covid crash was the 3rd fastest and 3rd worst bear market.

4/n


Okay, how should we define Bear Market Recovery?

The no of days from market bottom to a new all-time high.

Sadly, bear markets take time to recover.

Almost double the time to recover to a new ATH compared to the time to form a bottom.

Avg recovery duration – 495 days

5/n
TRADING , BULL AND BEAR MARKET

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It was really hard to not jump in and say, "Sounds like you guys are going to have a fun meal tomorrow!" so they could unite in hatred against me, the outsider, and stop squabbling. Instead I exchanged glances with a nearby fellow lady patron, who also emotionally ate a cookie.

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@necolas
A brief analysis and comparison of the CSS for Twitter's PWA vs Twitter's legacy desktop website. The difference is dramatic and I'll touch on some reasons why.

Legacy site *downloads* ~630 KB CSS per theme and writing direction.

6,769 rules
9,252 selectors
16.7k declarations
3,370 unique declarations
44 media queries
36 unique colors
50 unique background colors
46 unique font sizes
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https://t.co/qyl4Bt1i5x


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735 rules
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The legacy site's CSS is what happens when hundreds of people directly write CSS over many years. Specificity wars, redundancy, a house of cards that can't be fixed. The result is extremely inefficient and error-prone styling that punishes users and developers.

The PWA's CSS is generated on-demand by a JS framework that manages styles and outputs "atomic CSS". The framework can enforce strict constraints and perform optimisations, which is why the CSS is so much smaller and safer. Style conflicts and unbounded CSS growth are avoided.
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@niki_poojary
One of the most successful stock trader with special focus on cash stocks and who has a very creative mind to look out for opportunities in dark times

Covering one of the most unique set ups: Extended moves & Reversal plays

Time for a 🧵 to learn the above from @iManasArora

What qualifies for an extended move?

30-40% move in just 5-6 days is one example of extended move

How Manas used this info to book


Post that the plight of the


Example 2: Booking profits when the stock is extended from 10WMA

10WMA =


Another hack to identify extended move in a stock:

Too many green days!

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@Schandillia
[THREAD: HISTORY OF THE HINDU TEMPLE]
1/102
Four hours south of Aswan in Lower Nubia, right by the Nile, is a region dotted with temple complexes built more than 3,000 years ago. Some like the temples of Amada, Derr, and Beit el-Wali go as far back as 1500 BC.


2/102
A little further south, not far from the border with Sudan, is another complex dedicated to Ramses II, Hathor, and Nefertari in the village of Ipsambul, better known locally as Abu Sunbul and internationally as Abu Simbel. These go back to the 13th century BC.


3/102
Djeser-Djeseru, also known as the mortuary temple of Hatshepsut in Upper Egypt also dates to 1400 BC. Over 500 years older is the nearby Mentuhotep II, also a mortuary temple. Both were dedicated to the cult of Amun Ra, besides their respective pharaohs.


4/102
Far older is the Ġgantija complex of Malta. Going as far back as 3600 BC, this one comprises of two temples entirely made of stone and enclosed in a stone wall. From the figures therein, it's understood to be a site of some kind of a fertility cult worship.


5/102
Dating from the same period are the limestone megaliths of Ħaġar Qim and Mnajdra, both said to have once hosted ritualistic sacrifices as part of the same fertility cult worship as found in the Ġgantija complex. Malta has some of the oldest temple complexes in Europe.
RELIGION


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