Analyzed last 12 years of historical data to check if there are any patterns we can observe to find the best time to invest in stocks for long term. #Nifty50 #investing #stocks 1/10

Year 2022 has been disastrous for many asset classes, the world economy is at 40 year high inflation. Are we headed for another stock market crash? Here's a detailed analysis. 🧵

Emerging markets like SriLanka is in middle of collapse, which is facing severe depression. World Bank has predicted 70 more countries might default in coming years. With so many negative news, from equity to bitcoin every asset class facing severe sell off across the globe.

Everyone is currently talking about Inflation, rise in oil prices, Russian-Ukraine war and frequent lockdowns in China which is disrupting the supply chain. These are some of the major threats which could slowdown the world economy. But will these cause a stock market crash? No!

author of The Psychology of Money was once said

"The biggest economy risk is what no one is talking about. When no one is talking about it, no one is prepared for it. When no one is prepared for it, damage is too much."

COVID-19 no one in the world expected such a pandemic in the modern world, no one thought we would get locked down, entire world would get shut. This is mother of all surprises, no one was prepared for it.

A small thread on Mindset of a successful trader. What differentiates best traders from the bad ones? Why 95% of the traders don’t make money? Trading is an unpredictable game, how could one win in that? 1/n

Many people think some magical strategy or indicators is all they need to be successful at Trading. But what really goes in the minds of a successful trader? Professor Hichman Benjelloun did a research on this.

Successful traders have poker face. If you talk to successful traders or chat with them, you can’t figure out if they are happy or sad. Having good time or bad time.

For them making money or losing money is same thing, as they say a good trader feels great after a good trade, but a great trader feels NOTHING after a great trade. They control their emotions not only in trading but also outside their trading life. They are highly disciplined

Whether they are making money or losing money, they continue with their daily routine, going to gym, cycling etc they don’t skip it because of a losing trade. It doesn’t affect them. They have probability mind set. What does that mean?

A thread on Position Sizing #Trading is the only profession where you can see Doctors, Engineers, and many other successful professionals try their luck with stock market, these people excel in their own respective field but struggle a lot when it comes to trading.1/n

Unfortunately, everybody believes that a successful trader always has a secret Technical Skill. But the truth is Technical skill is the least important factor to be a superstar trader.

Then what separates a great trader from the group of average traders? Its their emotion.

This is how most traders think: They first think about the Entry point, at which price should I buy? At which level should I enter? At which point should I get into a trade?

But this is how you must think to be a profitable trader. You have to adapt to trading strategy that suits your psychology, assign trade management rules, keep position sizing and money management rules.

One of the main reason people lose money in stock market is because of their position size. Example: Vicky starts trading with a capital of Rs. 1,00,000 and he finds a trading opportunity and buys Spice Jet share for Rs. 100. At the max, he can buy 1000 shares of Spice Jet stock.

Overthinking - The art of creating problems which weren't even there.

Thread on How Over-analysis leads to decision Paralysis-

What is Analysis paralysis?

In simple terms, analysis paralysis is a person's tendency to over-analyze or over-think upon a decision to such an extent that he/she fails to make a choice resulting in a paralyzed state of inaction.

How a retail trader trades-

A trader named Rahul, He know all the basics of markets, He also has made a system which gives signals on nifty, he has also encorporated good Risk management and Position sizing into his system.

One day he gets a signal to buy Nifty at 13500 with stop at 13450, he wanted to take the trade, but he wanted to get sure that the trade he has take should be a winner.

So he says just let me check the RSI if its above this level I will buy , he checks it and it was above his

level, then again he wants to check another indicator named MACD, he wanted to get sure man, Now he do the most intelligent thing to get sure he gets right.

He goes to twitter and ask his twitter Friend Trader knight he ask him that should I buy nifty at 13500,

(Thread) Why do I own individual stocks?

Thesis:

1. The digitalization of our world is 10% complete.
2. This megatrend will continue for at least another decade.
3. If you enjoy spending your free time on individual stocks, then the potential for outsized returns is possible.

What is my approach?

There are two parts to my portfolio.

- 40% in Vanguard All-World ETF. This is on autopilot w/ regular contributions.
- 60% in what I consider to be high growth stocks

I keep a balance by adding cash. No shuffling around unless it gets too out of whack.

The latter is the interesting part.

I invest in companies that can

1. successfully disrupt an industry with new business models $TTD $SQ $PTON $TDOC

2. further enable the digital transformation with their services and infrastructure $ZS $HUBS $TWLO $CRWD

I intend to hold my shares indefinitely and allow my investments to compound over time.

I don’t believe that it is possible to time the market. Markets go up and down. I hold on knowing that quality businesses tend to bounce back.

The list of reasons to sell is always long.

If you have full conviction in your holdings, then no single piece of “infotainment” should make you change your mind.

Ignore it + people who make predictions about the economy.

As a former professional poker player, I'm very clear about the importance of psychology in investing/trading.

You can have a very solid strategy, but if the mental aspect fails, everything fails, no matter how good you are.

Thread 👇

In this thread I will briefly describe the most important aspects of trading psychology, and give some simple tips to try to improve them.

It's good to always be aware of these aspects, to be able to detect them and act in time.

1) FEAR

This is one of the most important. It can make you get out of a position at the wrong time.

One of the main reasons you can have fear is because you are putting more at risk than you are willing to lose.

Tip: reduce the size of your position until you are comfortable.

2) GREED

Greed can be even worse than fear. It leads you to be overpositioned and to destroy your average entry.

Tip: learn to conform to what you have. Practice gratitude for everything that comes your way. Remember that the most important thing is to stay in the game.

3) TILT

This is well known in poker. There are many reasons why tilt can appear (downswings, injustice, mistakes...)

Tilt takes you away from your perfect strategy. From your A game.

After a losing streak you may think that the market is being unfair to you.

A 17 point summary on my 2000+ days as a trader:

Wont take more than 10 minutes ! 🧵

1. Market cycles
Market Always moves in a cyclical way, supply and demand is basic principle for any cycle that involves money. Crack it you’ll be way ahead of the curve.

2. History rhymes
Always remember that history wont repeat but will surely rhyme - go and see all major falls and all major rises. Core principles are same, triggers are variable.

3. Time > Timing
Many people say that timing the mkt is very essential but according to me the more time you spend the more you get to know about mkt that jo course will teach you.

4. Survival
If you manage to survive for the next 3650 days in the market - trust me for the fact that you will definitely be a part of one commodity one bull and bear mkt. Its more valuable than any 1L INR course.