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Analyzed last 12 years of historical data to check if there are any patterns we can observe to find the best time to invest in stocks for long term. #Nifty50 #investing #stocks 1/10

 This is how Nifty moved in last 15 years with three major corrections, in the year 2008,then around 2016 and then year 2020 due to Coronavirus. Only when we look back with hindsight bias we could say those were the best time to invest. But is there really any quantitative method?
200 day moving average is something that is widely used by many investors to check for long term trend. Where investors consider if stocks trades above 200 DMA, its in bullish phase and if it trades below 200 DMA its in bearish phase.
We shall run an analysis to find out of Nifty 50 stocks, how many number of stocks trades above 200 day moving average, higher the number, stronger the market. we need correct data, we cannot test it with current Nifty 50 stocks,
we need list of Nifty 50 stocks that are part of index historically, so when we run for Jan 2008, stocks like RPL, RNRL, UNITECH were part of Nifty 50, so it is essential to test it with correct datasets.
Once we get all the list from 2008 to 2020, we need to find the count for each month, i.e. list of stocks trading above 200 day moving average for each month and plot the graph.
Year 2008 Oct-Dec period, no of stocks trading above 200 DMA was very less, which denotes the extreme fear period, again in 2011, no of stocks that trades above 200 DMA in Nifty 50 were less than 15,
in 2016 no of stocks that trades above 200 DMA in Nifty 50 stocks were less than 20,
and in the year 2020, its less than 10 stocks, if you compare the above data with below Nifty chart, you can easily conclude that those extreme panic period were the times market bottomed out.
Earlier in April when Corona pandemic was extremely high, I wrote an article stating market has bottomed out (https://t.co/fPKJhzvHJl )and exactly within 6 months we are now trading at all time high.
Instead of applying 200 dma on index , no of stocks trading above 200 day moving average can be used as a good quantitative measure to make long term investing decision. Because 80% of Index movement comes from less than 20% of Nifty stocks. Blog details https://t.co/eZz5HznXva

More from Kirubakaran Rajendran

Kirubakaran Rajendran
Kirubakaran Rajendran
@kirubaakaran
Here's the last 13 years of #BudgetSession Intraday chart, lets figure out what kind of Trading strategy one can use to make use of Budget movement. This is what happened with #Nifty on intraday time frame on the budget day from year 2008 to 2021.


Year 2008, 2009


2010


2011


2012
ALL
Kirubakaran Rajendran
Kirubakaran Rajendran
@kirubaakaran
Nifty 14500 CE trade which made day low price of 0.15 and day high price of 2139, due to erroneous order by a broker who lost 250 crores. Some ppl claim few others brokers made 50 to 75 crores profits. But what really happened? Here's the tick data analysis that shows true info🧵

Yesterday being a weekly expiry market was so calm, not making any major movements. Nifty was trading around 16500 but there was a freak trade happened with deep In the money option 14500 CE. It was trading around 2000 levels, usually the liquidity will be very shallow with ITM

it was hovering around 2000 to 2100 levels but suddenly around 2:30 pm, the price of the option went as low as 0.15 paise. Here's the tick data price chart of 14500 CE option strike


What's really interesting about this sudden move is, usually when a freak trade happens it last for few seconds and instantly get back to its average traded price levels. But in this case, there were many buy trades executed at a very low price.

Obviously this a fat finger error trade, where a broker based out of Kolkatta, erroneously placed sell order for 14500 CE instead of 16500 CE.
ALL
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Kirubakaran Rajendran
Kirubakaran Rajendran
@kirubaakaran
Over the last couple of years, I did n number of research on systematic investment methods.
What happens if I do SIP only during market corrections ?
What happens if I pick stocks based on momentum rules? Here’s small thread on Why I moved to index fund investing? 🧵

When it comes to trading most of us are busy with backtesting multiple option trading strategies with no code platforms like Stockmock Algotest etc but when it comes to investing very few charting platforms available to test long term investing methods.

I wanted to do SIP but instead of investing in mutual funds, I wanted to develop systematic approach on choosing the stocks and invest in them and rebalance them based on certain criteria.

I have written multiple articles on this topic, like how to find which is the best sector to invest?

Should you invest in 52 week high stocks or 52 week low stocks ?
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Kirubakaran Rajendran
Kirubakaran Rajendran
@kirubaakaran
A small thread on various historical data analysis and trading strategies articles that I have shared so far. #TradingSystem #AlgoTrading 1/n
"Is long strangle strategy profitable?" https://t.co/luHnX1SGxx


"Is #Intraday trading profitable?"
Every long term investor was once a Intraday trader.

If you avoid the below three mistakes, intraday trading is definitely

"The best way to invest in #StockMarket, follow this simple rule"

Let’s consider two different scenarios,

Market crashes after your investment
Market rallies after your

Investment in #Gold is really good diversification. It helps well during bad economy period. However, instead of buying physical gold, you can invest in Gold ETF like Goldbees. Here’s the last 13 years historical analysis of Gold price

How about a trading system that gives you just two or three trades in a year, but ends up giving phenomenal returns. This is one such trading strategy with plain simple rules
GOOD READS
Kirubakaran Rajendran
Kirubakaran Rajendran
@kirubaakaran
Earlier many traders were trading based on discretionary without any rules based approach. Now a lot of traders are ready to move to algo trading but confused with a lot of options. When you are bombarded with tons of different trading systems, how do you choose the best one?

Many traders still think winning accuracy is the most important parameter in a trading system. But is it really true? Let's check this example. Consider, we have three different trading systems.
System A,
System B and
System C.


System A has 90% winning accuracy,
System B has 10% winning accuracy and
System C has 50% accuracy.
When given a choice, most traders will opt for System A as it has the highest winning accuracy of all with 90%.

But System A is not the right choice. The average profit in a winning trade is Rs.1000, that is 90% of the time System A is capable of making Rs.1000 profit. But remaining 10% of the time when the system is making a loss, it loses a lot. So after 100 trades, net result is -10,000

System B, The average profit in a winning trade is Rs.10,000, that is 10% of the time System B is capable of making Rs.10K profit, which is ten times higher than its losing trade. The average loss in a losing trade is Rs.1,000 but 90% of the time the system will continue to lose.
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Keval Ashar
Keval Ashar
@KevalAshar
Indian Investing Conclave Day 1 @IIC_2020

:Route Mobile
:Philip Carbon Black
:Borosil Ltd
:Arvind Ltd
:Hawkins Cooker
:Repco Homes
:Shaily Engineering Plastics

Route Mobile @ravidharamshi77

Investment Hypothesis in CPaaS companies

:Crossed the technology adoption chasm
:Huge addressable opportunity - Industry growth estimates 30-50%
:Profitable Unit Economics, Cash Generating, Incremental Cost Low

CPaaS growing at 40%


Route Mobile

:Applications served by route mobile - Facebook, Instagram, Whatsapp, Google Pay to name a few
:Route mobile platform used for : 2 factor authentication, Notification for customer engagement across portfolio of apps


Route Mobile Key points

:Scaled upto 1200cr of revenue from internal accruals
:Huge runway for growth
:Multi geography and Omni-Channel presence
:Cash available for M&A
:Scope of margin improvement
:Demonstrated ability to move up the value scale

Philips Carbon Black @sarkaraniruddha

:Indias largest carbon black manufacturer
:Where is carbon black used, Tyre Rubber(73%), Non Tyre Rubber (20%), Non Rubber Speciality Carbon (7%)

Industry Size & Capacity Addition
1.3 Million Tonnes capacity and PCB has 43% market share
TRADING
Abhishek Kar
Abhishek Kar
@Abhishekkar_
FREE MINI STOCK MBA
If you wish to learn abt trading,psychology,options,business etc
You can go through this thread.
Other than this I do post videos on my YT channel : -Abhishek Kar & Tradiostation
-Intraday views on FREE telegram : Abhishek Kar Official
RT will be appreciated

1. Threads to learn Options
https://t.co/wabkek43I8

2. https://t.co/OIDenHKdWN

3. Some core rules to investing
https://t.co/37d1pygp7P

4.Summing up 2020 Trading lessons
https://t.co/jSUb1lSGbQ

5.Effects of margin change on


6. Exciting story about a trader who destroyed a Bank
https://t.co/CsEEhIsD3q

7. Some Thought Provoking facts about stock markets
https://t.co/IjxpX5Wx24

8. A dose on Trading and investing


9. Top 5 resources to learn everything about stocks
https://t.co/6KnIySBGIG

10. Some Pro Tips on Trading
https://t.co/EiSGikt7jv

11. Wisdom on stuffs you should not do
https://t.co/bI2dH0XTSS

12. Reasons why you are losing the


13. The DARK side of stock market
https://t.co/qsteGcbquI

14. Stocks where you should NOT invest
https://t.co/2tD5q0K3UQ

15. Lessons from MILLIONAIRE trader
https://t.co/Pec6LmUtGa

16. Lessons from my
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Trader knight
Trader knight
@Traderknight007
THE TRADER'S EDGE: THINKING IN PROBABILITIES

Casinos make consistent profits day after day and year after year, doing something random

At the same time, most traders believe that the outcome of the market's behavior is not random,yet can't produce consistent profits

Thread 🧵


What casino owners ,professional traders know is that probable outcomes can also produce consistent results if you " Have an edge" and trade on a large enough sample size.

The best traders treat trading like a numbers game.

1. To illustrate, let's look at the game of blackjack-


In blackjack, the casinos have approximately a 4.5-percent edge over the player.

This means that casinos will make profit over a large enough sample size, even after several winning streaks and big profits of many players.

At the end of the day, week, month, or year, the casino always ends up with approximately 4.5 percent of the total amount wagered.

That 4.5 percent might not sound like a lot, but let's put it in perspective.

Suppose a total of $100 million dollars is wagered collectively at all of a casino's blackjack tables over the course of a year. The casino will net $4.5 million.

What casino owners and pro traders understand about the nature of probabilities is that each individual hand played
TRADING
Aditya Todmal
Aditya Todmal
@AdityaTodmal
I gathered the best Youtube videos to learn Expiry trading for free.

If you want to master expiry trading, open this thread: 🧵

Collaborated with @niki_poojary

Here's what you'll find in this thread:

1. ATM strikes to zero
2. Big Gaps on Expiry Day
3. How to trade expiry when Nifty is behaving differently
4. Using Data points to trade expiry
5. Play for a flat move
6. How to profit post 3 pm exploiting the close price?

Let's go ↓

1. How to develop a framework to trade in ATM strikes on expiry day? Subhasish Pani on @vivbajaj Sir's channel.

One of call or put at ATM is going to go to zero.

Whichever is moving rapidly has a higher probability of going ATM/ITM. Sell the slower

2. How to trade a big gap up on expiry day?

If market bias is bullish and a gap-up happens, it comes for selling.

Can buy puts at the breakout of an inside candle as the market has a good probability of at least heading toward the previous day's

3. How to trade in Bank Nifty if it has already moved 160 points from its high to low by 11:30? @ThetaGainers

Sell near otms with double stop loss.

Avoid if stuck in a very small range.

Get out of both by 1
TRADING , ALL
Vikrant
Vikrant
@Trading0secrets
My swing cash strategy ☢️
(In simple language)

1⃣ #stock selection process - always choose that stock which are consolidating near all time high

(Because whenever stock will give all time high breakout then it will easily give 20/30% return in 1/2 months

2⃣Volume analysis - In that consolidating period volume should be high of up move days then down move days. And last 3/4 month volume of accumulation is must higher then previous days.

3️⃣ fund diversification - always deploy your capital in 3/4 stocks, not more then that or not less then 3.

And, your 3/4 stocks must be from different strong sectors.

4⃣comunding magic - If you hold 10 stocks then if 2 stocks will give 100% return then portfolio impact is 20% only. (here time period is 8/15 months)

If you hold 3 stocks out of them 2 will give 40% then ur portfolio impact is 25%
(Here time period is 1/3 months)

5⃣sectors analysis - always choose that sector stocks which are near support or breakout stage.

If any stocks is out of nifty sector then u can open stock scanner website and check their peer charts.If out of 5 ,3 are strong then u can select that
TRADING STRATEGIES , TRADING , ALL

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Jig's Patel
Jig's Patel
@jigspatel1988
What is best way to sell strangle in Banknifty on an intraday basis
Simple
at 9:45 Open Option chain and check In which strike highest OI change in call side and put side

Sell both option with combine SL
Enjoy easy and simple intraday trading strategy
Today 35000CE and 34500PE
OPTIONSLEARNINGS , OPTION LEARNING , OPTIONSELLING
Anu Satheesh \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3
Anu Satheesh 🇮🇳...
@AnuSatheesh5
Samayapuram Mariamman Temple
#Trichy
#Tamilnadutemples 🚩

Samayapuram Mariamman Temple is located in Samayapuram of
 Tiruchirappalli district.  Mariyamman here is worshipped as Samayapurathal a form of Parashakti.
Amman vigraham here is made of sand and clay so


no abhishekam done to the main vigraham. Samayapuram Mariamman Temple is one of the famous Shakthi Sthal of Tamilnadu.

Story says that paramashiva created Kali, out of the poison that he drank during samudra mathanam.  As Devi originated from the Kaalakoota/ halahala poison,


thus the name Kaali. Mariamman is believed to be a form of Kaali, and is also known as Mahamayi. It is also believed that Maharaja Dasharatha offered his prayers here.

Mariamman is Parashakti herself who blesses with prosperity and she is believed to cure all diseases.


Paramashiva, Mahavishnu and Brahma Deva are believed to have taken blessings of Mariamman here.

Om Shakti Para Shakti
🙏🕉🙏
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Delilah S. Dawson
Delilah S. Dawson
@DelilahSDawson
So here is a secret: Not everything I write goes anywhere. I have at least 4 books completely written and edited that never went on submission. I have books that stalled out at 20k. I have docs on my computer with opening paragraphs I don't remember writing. But! 1/

Every now and then an idea sticks with me like that corner of tortilla chip that just won't go down your throat. It happened with SPARROWHAWK, which began as 40k of a YA story, died, and was reborn as a comic, thanks to @christopher_j_r and @boomstudios. And now... 2/

It's happening with THE WILLOWS, a short story that you'll see in @UncannyMagazine next year. This Southern Gothic horror story began as an attempt to sell my next Romance to @AbZurdity after the Blud books in 2014 or so. And she didn't buy it. Guess why? 3/

Turns out, it wasn't a Romance! It was Southern Gothic Horror. Even the bones of it screamed strangeness, not sexiness. I loved the taste of the world, but I hadn't found the right story yet. Tried to write it 2 more times and failed. Until I finally understood what it was. 4/

So I took the 50 pages I'd written and cut half of them, twisting the story around from a gothy Romance inspired by the band the Civil Wars and turned it into a spooky descent into madness. And it looked back at me from the abyss as if to say, DUH. Sometimes... 5/
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Kitze @ \U0001f1e9\U0001f1ea\ufe0f
Kitze @ 🇩🇪️...
@thekitze
To people who are under the impression that you can get rich quickly by working on an app, here are the stats for https://t.co/az8F12pf02

📈 ~12000 vistis
☑️ 109 transactions
💰 353€ profit (285 after tax)

I have spent 1.5 months on this app. You can make more $ in 2 days.

🤷‍♂️


I'm still happy that I launched a paid app bcs it involved extra work:

- backend for processing payments (+ permissions, webhooks, etc)
- integration with payment processor
- UI for license activation in Electron
- machine activation limit
- autoupdates
- mailgun emails

etc.

These things seemed super scary at first. I always thought it was way too much work and something would break. But I'm glad I persisted. So far the only problem I have is that mailgun is not delivering the license keys to certain domains like https://t.co/6Bqn0FUYXo etc. 👌

omg I just realized that me . com is an Apple domain, of course something wouldn't work with these dicks
MAKERS
Shaun Russell
Shaun Russell
@_ShaunRussell
"I really want to break into Product Management"

make products.

"If only someone would tell me how I can get a startup to notice me."

Make Products.

"I guess it's impossible and I'll never break into the industry."

MAKE PRODUCTS.

Courtesy of @edbrisson's wonderful thread on breaking into comics – https://t.co/TgNblNSCBj – here is why the same applies to Product Management, too.


There is no better way of learning the craft of product, or proving your potential to employers, than just doing it.

You do not need anybody's permission. We don't have diplomas, nor doctorates. We can barely agree on a single standard of what a Product Manager is supposed to do.

But – there is at least one blindingly obvious industry consensus – a Product Manager makes Products.

And they don't need to be kept at the exact right temperature, given endless resource, or carefully protected in order to do this.

They find their own way.
TECH


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