Thread on sideways market:

Sideways price action or consolidation is a phase where institutional players are silently building their positions transacting in smaller quantities.

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Introduction to imbalance charts (orderflow trading):

A 🧵

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Orderflow charts essentially show the real time buying and selling happening in the markets.

In below chart, you can see how market sell orders are shown to the bid side and market buy orders are shown to the ask side.

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Using this, one can identify big buying and selling happening at various prices.

Imbalance charts takes this one step forward. How so? Read on to find out.

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Imbalance charts shows buying and selling imbalances at various price points. How does it matter?

Imbalance here implies to what extent is buying more than selling and vice versa.

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Why is that important? As a trader, if we know that buying at a particular level is x times more than selling or vice versa, it would help us understand the strength of supply or demand coming into the market.

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Improve your volume analysis using volume profile.

A thread on volume profile 🧵

Traditional volume indicator is widely used by almost every trader.

But it has a handicap: It shows volumes transacted from a time POV but not the price POV.

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This is what traditional volume analysis states. But in reality, how effective it is?

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It simply shows volume from a timeframe basis. 5 mins volumes on 5 mins TF and so on.

But, is there a different way to read volumes from a price basis? Like, where did largest buying or selling by big players come in?

Read to find more.

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This is where volume profile comes in. To put it in the simplest way, volume profile shows volume from a price perspective thus enabling a trader to identify where largest trading has occurred.

But how does this help a trader?

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If you can spot the areas where large volumes are being traded, you can spot areas of interest and effectively find areas of support and resistance.

Of course, it is volume that drives the price.

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Thread on fibs:

Part 1 - Fib extensions:

The way I use fibs and extensions differ from conventional textbook methods.

Fib extensions are ratios beyond 1 used to project targets for profit booking.

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The main purpose of fib extensions is to forecast probable (emphasis on both words) areas of profit booking/correction in a script trading in unchartered waters (ATHs and lifetime lows)

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Basically, they are used to find Ghost supports/resistances.

Fibonacci is a price based and a relative time based tool.

Meaning, the proper way to use this tool largely depends on the swing markers you use relative to the TF of your analysis and trading.

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The primary ratios I use as part of extensions are 1.382 and 1.618.

Example 1 for broader price range swing:

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Example for minor swing:
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How I understand the strength of a trend:

For many day traders, the issue is not with identifying the direction but being afraid of when the move will end or reverse.

It is a challenge to identify when a move can continue and convert to a big move n when it can reverse

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Reading orderflow data at important levels like previous day low and high (intra low and high are not that reliable levels), one can understand if a move can continue or not.

In the above chart, previous day low broke and market fell before giving a pullback.

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Orderflow indicated that large sellers continued to sell when PDL (previous day low) was breaking.

See below chart where sellers sold huge around PDL.

We pulled back to same level and they defended their positions.

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OF helps know the strength of a move and the probability of it continuing or not and helps me decide whether to stay in a trade for bigger profits or book out.

If you liked the content, follow me at @KillerTrader_ for more such knowledge.

Charts by @gocharting

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#nifty

A THREAD ON SL, TSL AND RE-ENTRIES-

WHERE TO PUT THE SL-

1. NEAREST PIVOT/SWING POINTS-

Normally I use this method for placing sl, In this method we use swing point for placing the SL.

As normally the stock would not try to go below previous swing point if it is to go in our direction.

2. ATR method-

Sometimes the Stock do not have any nearest pivot at time of buy, So we use this method as it gives us a level on basis of current volatility of the stock.

I use 1.5 ATR away sl , say the ATR at point of entry is 30, so I place sl
1.5 X, or 45 rs away from entry

In below example the entry is 120, ATR=5, SL= 1.5X ATR= 7.5 OR 113.

Nearest pivot was too far away, that’s why this method is used in these cases.

4. Anchor candles-

Anchor bars are those which have extreme Volume, gaps or wide Ranges.

Here, we place our sl below those candles which has the above characteristics.

A thread about GameStop:

Big hedge funds made big bets that GameStop’s stock was overvalued. The way these bets work is the hedge fund borrows shares of the stock and sells those borrowed shares.

When it comes time to give the borrowed shares back, they buy them on the market, hopefully at lower prices. For example, they might sell the borrowed share at $50, hoping to be able to buy the share back at $30, to make a $20 profit. This is called shorting.

The hedge funds were so sure that GameStop was going down, that GameStop was the most shorted stock on the market. 140% of the shares in existence were “borrowed.” Imagine Bob borrows from Jane who borrows from Sue who borrows from John.

Shorting is risky, but the hedge funds were so sure that they just didn’t even care. People on Reddit realized this and basically thought “what if we all just bought shares and refused to sell them when the hedge funds need to give their borrowed shares back.”

The price goes up, the hedge funds are forced to buy back the expensive shares and lose money. Except the hedge funds kept doubling down as the price rode up, expecting that it would eventually fall. The Redditors weren't scared off and with "diamond hands" refused to sell.

(Thread) Why do I own individual stocks?

Thesis:

1. The digitalization of our world is 10% complete.
2. This megatrend will continue for at least another decade.
3. If you enjoy spending your free time on individual stocks, then the potential for outsized returns is possible.

What is my approach?

There are two parts to my portfolio.

- 40% in Vanguard All-World ETF. This is on autopilot w/ regular contributions.
- 60% in what I consider to be high growth stocks

I keep a balance by adding cash. No shuffling around unless it gets too out of whack.

The latter is the interesting part.

I invest in companies that can

1. successfully disrupt an industry with new business models $TTD $SQ $PTON $TDOC

2. further enable the digital transformation with their services and infrastructure $ZS $HUBS $TWLO $CRWD

I intend to hold my shares indefinitely and allow my investments to compound over time.

I don’t believe that it is possible to time the market. Markets go up and down. I hold on knowing that quality businesses tend to bounce back.

The list of reasons to sell is always long.

If you have full conviction in your holdings, then no single piece of “infotainment” should make you change your mind.

Ignore it + people who make predictions about the economy.

How position sizing can affect your trading performance-

Assuming that you are trading a Trend-following system with Big RR and low win-rate.

For example, assume that you risk one percent per trade on a 100,000 account
and you have 20 straight losses.

That one percent is of your remaining equity and at the end of 20 losses, you would be down to 81,790.60.

Now if you got a 30R winner and you are risking one percent of your balance of 81,790.60, your new equity would be 106,327.9,

You’ve had 20 losses and one winner though you are still up 10Rplus your equity is up by 6.3R percent.

Now, let’s say you risk five percent per trade on your balance. At the end of 20 straight losses, you would be down to 35,772.89 or down 64 percent.

If you risk five percent on this amount and get a 30R winner, you would be up to 89,621.48. You are up 10R, but because of your position sizing, your equity is still down over 10 percent.

#positionsizing
#Trading
#nifty50

This is why position sizing is the most important factor in trading if you get it right and you have an edge, you will do good.

Thanks for reading till here.
@AnandableAnand @jitendrajain @quatltd @sohamtweet