New 2020 cyber trends report now out!

The new Recent Cyber Events and Possible Implications for Armed Forces report gives high-level analysis on major 2020 cyber trends - direct link to report here: https://t.co/QRAhG3TXIw
Section 1: Overview of Solarwinds and the extended campaign that resulted in the breach of several US government agencies. A discussion on supply chain security management and how vulnerabilities compounded to make the attack possible (and un-detected).
Section 2: A development of cyber norms and international law. The pandemic, state pronouncements and UN-sponsored processes on international law and cyber, space recognised as a domain & the plans for Tallinn 3.0. See CCDCOE's Cyber Law Toolkit for more: https://t.co/5T4ry5wAK4
Section 3: 5G and supply chain infrastructure - the importance of secure communications with implications for both civilian and military use. Noting the use of legislation and market competitors, the @CCDCOE announced a major research project into 5G rollouts in 2021.
Section 4: The Future of AI and Security. AI-enabled is still relatively immature - but has vast potential capabilities. Fake news and applications in cybersecurity are both pressing areas of focus, as are long-term focuses on interoperability and international collaboration.
Big thanks to our CCDCOE Intern @marguer_ite for her excellent contributions on this topic!
Section 5: Ransomware in 2020. COVID-19 themed email campaigns and an attacker focus on healthcare providers. The @CCDCOE will be releasing the 'Cyber Investigator's Handbook' in 2021 - a guide providing the cyber community with guidelines on managing and handling an incident.
Section 6: Attacks on Critical Infrastructure. The pandemic represents 'perfect storm' for CI attacks- remote management of systems, decentralised workforces, expanded outsourcing and outdated software. Vaccine distribution infrastructure a priority moving forward.
Section 7: Digitalisation and the 'Digital Workspace'. NATO and affiliated Agencies have all had to manage the shift to remote working - raising interesting challenges around interoperability and secure platforms to share information. Trial and error helped the CCDCOE adapt.
That's all folks. For a deeper dive into the content - the full report once again: https://t.co/QRAhG3TXIw. The authors are open to feedback and suggestions - contact details at end of the report.

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A common misunderstanding about Agile and “Big Design Up Front”:

There’s nothing in the Agile Manifesto or Principles that states you should never have any idea what you’re trying to build.

You’re allowed to think about a desired outcome from the beginning.

It’s not Big Design Up Front if you do in-depth research to understand the user’s problem.

It’s not BDUF if you spend detailed time learning who needs this thing and why they need it.

It’s not BDUF if you help every team member know what success looks like.

Agile is about reducing risk.

It’s not Agile if you increase risk by starting your sprints with complete ignorance.

It’s not Agile if you don’t research.

Don’t make the mistake of shutting down critical understanding by labeling it Bg Design Up Front.

It would be a mistake to assume this research should only be done by designers and researchers.

Product management and developers also need to be out with the team, conducting the research.

Shared Understanding is the key objective


Big Design Up Front is a thing to avoid.

Defining all the functionality before coding is BDUF.

Drawing every screen and every pixel is BDUF.

Promising functionality (or delivery dates) to customers before development starts is BDUF.

These things shouldn’t happen in Agile.
So we had to develop technologies like this to barely manage control over limited areas in Iraq's few urban centers. Only ~8 in 100 Iraqi adults owns a personal vehicle. That rate is > 1 car/adult in America yet I have never seen any doctrine paper or work of fiction address this


We've seen and struggled in civil conflicts with instant, local, universal, distributed communications (cell phone era, basically every conflict since 2000). We've seen and struggled in conflicts with instant, global, universal distributed communications (everything since 2011).

The world's most overfunded military and glow in the dark agencies struggle and largely fail to contain conflicts where fhe vast, vast majority of people are locked into a ~5mi radius of their home.

How can they possibly contain a conflict in a nation with universal car ownership and the most developed road network in the world? The average car can travel over 400 miles on one tank of gas, how can you contain the potential of that kind of mobility?

I think that's partially why the system was so freaked out by 1/6. Yes, most of it is histrionics but you don't decide to indefinitely turn your capital into the Baghdad Green Zone with fortifications and 25k troops over histrionics alone.

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