How to use Moving averages like a Pro.👇

https://t.co/7VbuGovmee

A thread on Pyramiding-

What is pyramiding?

In pyramiding we add on to a position when it is going in our direction. Its basically opposite of averaging down.

MOMENTUM - Success of a pyramiding trade depend on this ingredient, the more the momentum the better pyramiding.

There are many way to enter and exit in a stock-

1. ALL IN - ALL OUT
2. ALL IN - SCALE OUT
3. SCALE IN - SCALE OUT
4. SCALE IN - ALL OUT ( I use this one)

Why traders use Pyramiding ?

More than anything what pyramiding do is keep your losers small and your winners - Big.

Pyramiding in my view keeps your dd smaller as your losers are very small because you enters with only a fraction of what you would have entered Normally.

BUT, not necessarily it should be more profitable than ALL IN- ALL OUT, Where one enters all at once and sell all at once.

HOW TO DO PYRAMIDING-

There are various methods which are used by traders for pyramiding ,while keeping the basic concept of adding onto the strength.

1. PYRAMIDING AND TRAILING BASED UPON STRUCTURE-

In this method we scale in or pyramid the qty when the stock breaks above

"Don't change the trading rules after every trade."

If you do change them frequently then this thread is for you.

Let's talk about the law of large numbers and how it benefits traders to be profitable.

[Thread]👇👇👇

Most people start tweaking the rules, chart settings and the indicator settings because now they think they have found the holy grail.

But they again end up changing them after next losing trade.

If you believe in the law of large numbers then;

Changing the buying rule from buy 1 point above the breakout to buy above 5 points or any tweak like that will not make much difference in the long run.

Law of large numbers is best illustrated by the example of a coin flip :

It has a 50% chance of landing on heads.

If we flip the coin twice, we have almost exactly equal chances of any scenario happening: heads twice, tails two evenly split.

The probability of getting 5 heads and 5 tails on ten flips is just 8% but that probability keeps increasing as we increase the sample size.

If one flips the coin 100 times, the probability of getting 50 heads and 50 tails (P=0.5) increases to 70% and so on.

When the market conditions are not in favour of a strategy, it's normal that it will suffer from drawdown.

In this period most traders can't face the heat,

THE TRADER'S EDGE: THINKING IN PROBABILITIES

Casinos make consistent profits day after day and year after year, doing something random

At the same time, most traders believe that the outcome of the market's behavior is not random,yet can't produce consistent profits

Thread 🧵

What casino owners ,professional traders know is that probable outcomes can also produce consistent results if you " Have an edge" and trade on a large enough sample size.

The best traders treat trading like a numbers game.

1. To illustrate, let's look at the game of blackjack-

In blackjack, the casinos have approximately a 4.5-percent edge over the player.

This means that casinos will make profit over a large enough sample size, even after several winning streaks and big profits of many players.

At the end of the day, week, month, or year, the casino always ends up with approximately 4.5 percent of the total amount wagered.

That 4.5 percent might not sound like a lot, but let's put it in perspective.

Suppose a total of $100 million dollars is wagered collectively at all of a casino's blackjack tables over the course of a year. The casino will net $4.5 million.

What casino owners and pro traders understand about the nature of probabilities is that each individual hand played

“In search of the holy grail”

A thread-

Holy grail- A strategy Which can make money all the time.

After going through two phases of a traders journey, the initial success phase, and Only why do i get loss phase, Traders enter the third phase -

THE SEARCH FOR THE HOLY GRAIL PHASE.

This phase has no limits, It can end in 1 month and it may not end till lifetime.

What exactly is this phase?

When a trader covers all the basics, they know how to lower their losses, they know the power of risk management.

And few of them may even develop their edges and systems over time.

But after some time, they feel that they are doing something wrong and there is more to trading than what they know.

THEN COMES THE HOLY GRAIL PART-

Few of them start to Read more books about trading,finding articles about “How to win 100% of the time” and listening to Youtube videos of few big traders who make big in trading.

How position sizing can affect your trading performance-

Assuming that you are trading a Trend-following system with Big RR and low win-rate.

For example, assume that you risk one percent per trade on a 100,000 account
and you have 20 straight losses.

That one percent is of your remaining equity and at the end of 20 losses, you would be down to 81,790.60.

Now if you got a 30R winner and you are risking one percent of your balance of 81,790.60, your new equity would be 106,327.9,

You’ve had 20 losses and one winner though you are still up 10Rplus your equity is up by 6.3R percent.

Now, let’s say you risk five percent per trade on your balance. At the end of 20 straight losses, you would be down to 35,772.89 or down 64 percent.

If you risk five percent on this amount and get a 30R winner, you would be up to 89,621.48. You are up 10R, but because of your position sizing, your equity is still down over 10 percent.

#positionsizing
#Trading
#nifty50

This is why position sizing is the most important factor in trading if you get it right and you have an edge, you will do good.

Thanks for reading till here.
@AnandableAnand @jitendrajain @quatltd @sohamtweet

see stocks where open = high/low .. and see how the candle is progressing.. if going strong then the trend can continue for the day :)
also keep lookout for the OI or volume change from yesterday if big enough, then major action is on the cards

A Master thread on @Singh7575 Sir's Long Only Setups with examples on Charts!

This setup is a gift to anyone who trades long ideas and those who want to trade in CASH due to Capital Constraint. Fits best for people who don't do FNO as this picks some amazing scripts.

1⃣ Before heading on to the set-up we want to make sure the entire system credit goes to @Singh7575 . We are just here to share it and make people aware of such simple set-ups that can give money considering risk is

2⃣How to Set it Up?
This setup best fits in @tradingview /@zerodhaonline or any broker that provides charting. We only need 2 Indicators.
Indicator 1- 13EMA
Indicator 2 - 34EMA
Both indicators are compulsory and should be exponential(EMA) instead of Simple moving average.(SMA)

3⃣ How to use this Setup?
Whenever this Setup meets a condition where 13EMA crosses 34EMA from below as depicted in the chart. Whenever the 13EMA crosses 34EMA from below it is a LONG (BUY) SIGNAL.

❗️Timeframe needs to be Daily Only!

4⃣ When to Place Order?
The Condition is to place order above the Day's High when crossover happened. Place buying bid above Previous Day’s high. If on current day the stock
doesn’t cross previous day’s high, place a buying bid the next day above current day’s high. For E.g.

Thread on Importance of Mean Reversion

U must have remember the charts of auto sector breakout on last monday,potentially poised to be the next leader in the rally.
But since then it just fell bad and deep
Breaking the breakout bar low

1/7

The seemingly convincing breakout retest structure in abv daily chart takes a cocpletely different picture in u open the chart in weekly TF

shooting start at the resistance line of a triangle and at a major supply zone

2/7

Major stocks such as heromoto, maruti, eichermot and babajauto are already trading below the breakout level it established on monday when sector broke out

3/7

This poses a serious question on the risks associated with breakout.

Popularity behind the breakout is the fact that it doesnt need any skills to spot it, even a 90% blind man can spot it in any chart, because the price just sticks out from the rest by a very big margin

4/7

But think about a completely diffferent method where the price makes a clean move and the risks assicated with it is cubstantially less.

Price available so cheap and at support

5/7