Nifty and RSI divergence. It is all about knowing your indicator well. Quick video (Hindi) :-)

@rachitagrawal97 Hammer at bottom = bullish
Same pattern is Hanging man when appears at top = bearish
Inverted hammer at bottom = bullish
Same pattern is shooting star when appears at top = bearish.

I have tested bullish & bearish brrakout of these patterns.

Thread: Central Pivot Range (CPR)

CPR is another popular tool. Three lines are plotted on the chart when we plot CPR.

The three lines are: CPR, TC and BC.

Let’s understand the calculation.

You may recall that I explained the calculation of Pivot levels in an earlier thread. CPR stands for Central Pivot Range. It is always a center line of the three lines that gets plotted in the chart.

CPR is a Pivot price. Pivot is average of HLC as explained in the prev thread.

We also discussed about Mid-range of the session. Mid-range is average of High and low price of the session.

The mid-range of the bar is known as BC in the CPR calculation. BC stands for Bottom central pivot.

Pivot level captures the relationship of the closing price to the range of the session.

Pivot price above mid-price = bullish pivot
Pivot price below mid-price = bearish pivot

So, CPR line is Pivot and BC line is Mid-range.

What is the difference between both?
Mid-range is average of High and Low.

Pivot is average of High, Low and Close.
What will make the difference between the two?

Close.

Back-testing of some candlestick patterns 🧵

I hv back-tested patterns shown below on 500 stocks (Nifty 500 stock group as on today) since inception on daily timeframe charts.

Below is some interesting information.

I was doing to design multi-chart setups. But the information in the thread can be useful for people practicing candlestick chart patterns. There are many patterns & we keep coming across more. The data can give you a rough idea about the past performance of patterns.

Patterns are defined based on the popular rules of identifying them. I have also tested bearish patterns for bullish trades and vice versa (Contra approach).

Criteria: Hit ratio & returns of pattern giving 1:1 risk-reward if the entry is at the closing price of the pattern.

Some top bullish patterns have below hit ratio:

Inverted Hammer or Shooting Star – 74.72%
Multi-Harami breakout - 65.23%
Bullish Harami cross – 64.6%
Bullish Kicker – 63.53% (Got better returns)
Bullish separating line – 61.69% (It has got better returns)

Doji breakout hit ratio is decent (63.71%) but occurrences are v high so need more confirmation.

Engulfing and Harami patterns have got better returns when traded at next candle of confirmation.

Thread: Decoding 2-period RSI

#trading

2-period RSI is a popular concept introduced by Larry Connors.

Many traders are using this method in their strategy.

There are two simple rules in the strategy that Larry Connors explained.

For buying:
• Price should be above 200-DMA (Long-term trend is up)
• 2-period RSI should be below 10 (better below 5)

For selling:
• Price should be below 200-DMA (Long-term trend is up)
• 2-period RSI should be above 90 (better above 95)

He also recommended exiting trades in profit. Exit if stock goes above 5 DMA after buying and exit of stock goes below 5 DMA after shorting. You can use DMA, higher period RSI such as 5 period or 14 period, ADX, Super trend etc. Possibilities are endless.

Bottom line is that he recommended exiting into profit instead of trailing. He did not recommend stop-loss because it can hurt the overall profitability according to him.

Let’s focus on the 2 rules stated above.

What is the logic of the system? It is a pullback trading system.

Sectoral Relative Strength Study
#Weekly

1. Nifty IT : On the verge of Flag BO-Strong RS
2. CnxFMCG :Retracing towards Breakout Zone-Weak RS
3. BankNifty :Digesting Gains after Breakout. RS needs to prove more during Pullback
4. CnxAuto :RS is shaping up well-Good on Pullback

5. CNXPharma : Approaching Resistance With Higher Lows- Would wait for Breakout to assess the sector again as RS is not in good shape yet!!!

A simple thread to understand relationship between US Dollar and Emerging Markets.

The relationship between the performance of Emerging Market stocks and the US Dollar is one of the tightest macro relationships that exists in investing.

1/15

The weekly return correlation between US Dollar and MSCI Emerging Market Index is -0.70 over last 10 years. Which means when US Dollar weakens, Emerging Market stocks rally and vice versa.

2/15

As seen in this chart, the MSCI EM Index and the MSCI World Index ratio and the US Dollar Index are negatively-correlated.

When US Dollar weakens, EM index outperform World Index and when US Dollar strengthens EM index underperform World index.

3/15

From 1995 to 2000, the USD appreciated over 30%, while the MSCI EM Index underperformed the MSCI World Index by over 15% annualised.

Then from 2001 to 2010, the U.S. dollar depreciated over 18% while the MSCI EM Index outperformed the MSCI World Index by 14% annualised.

4/15

Then from 2011 to 2020, the U.S. dollar appreciated over 30%, while the MSCI EM Index underperformed the MSCI World Index by 7% annualized.

Overall, from 1995 to 2020, this relationship has a correlation of -0.35.

5/15

Education on SWINGS

Understanding what is a Swing is crucial in order to understand Market Structure.

It shows us the direction of the market and while it may seem obvious at first sight of the market, many still have trouble defining what a swing is.

You could define swing as simply more then 2 consecutive candles moving in one direction

When you get a few in the opposite direction you have another one

The important thing to note is that HTF swings always have more priority than LTF swings

When you zoom-in from an HTF to an LTF you will always find that one HTF swing always consists of many smaller and smaller lower timeframe swings.

You could refine this until you'd get to a 1-minute chart or even a tick chart and still you'd see the same thing happening in there

An important thing to realize is that you can have many smaller swings inside of one, big swing, and you gotta orientate yourself in this.

This takes time and practice to see as all things do but will give you an immense power over the rest when you do.

Swings also do not have to break it's previous high or low. They can happen in a contraction with HL and LH also commonly known as triangles.

You can also have many moves inside of a one Monthly Bar.