Nifty and RSI divergence. It is all about knowing your indicator well. Quick video (Hindi) :-)

Thread: 5 Important bullish & bearish chart patterns in technical analysis.

Triangles, Broadenings and Rectangles.

#trading #investing

Many traders analyse and practice western chart patterns. There are many such patterns and enough is talked about them in various books and resources.
Long back, I read a book “Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns” by Thomas N. Bukowski. It’s a brilliant work (Must read).

He backtested many patterns & ranked them based on their performance. Most imp is that he separated the patterns based on their performance in uptrend & downtrend.
I read about those patterns at many other places & in different theories and I realised that most of them are-

-variations of broad category of patterns. I have bifurcated these patterns in various categories.

Triangles, Broadenings & Brackets or Rectangle patterns are most common & effective patterns. Below are 5 bullish & bearish proven, time-tested patterns of these categories.

Bullish Patterns:
Rectangle Breakout:
Horizontal pattern breakout. Price remains between two horizontal lines before upward brkout. Its a decent continuation breakout pattern when appears in uptrend. Reversal pattern when appear in downtrend (Decent Risk-reward). Tend to pullback

Back-testing of some candlestick patterns 🧵

I hv back-tested patterns shown below on 500 stocks (Nifty 500 stock group as on today) since inception on daily timeframe charts.

Below is some interesting information.

I was doing to design multi-chart setups. But the information in the thread can be useful for people practicing candlestick chart patterns. There are many patterns & we keep coming across more. The data can give you a rough idea about the past performance of patterns.

Patterns are defined based on the popular rules of identifying them. I have also tested bearish patterns for bullish trades and vice versa (Contra approach).

Criteria: Hit ratio & returns of pattern giving 1:1 risk-reward if the entry is at the closing price of the pattern.

Some top bullish patterns have below hit ratio:

Inverted Hammer or Shooting Star – 74.72%
Multi-Harami breakout - 65.23%
Bullish Harami cross – 64.6%
Bullish Kicker – 63.53% (Got better returns)
Bullish separating line – 61.69% (It has got better returns)

Doji breakout hit ratio is decent (63.71%) but occurrences are v high so need more confirmation.

Engulfing and Harami patterns have got better returns when traded at next candle of confirmation.

Thread: Camarilla Levels

Continuing our discussion on pivot levels, we look at the Camarilla levels which is another widely followed tool.

Word ‘Camarilla’ is borrowed from Spanish. It translates to a group of confidential & private advisers of the King or person in authority.

The Camarilla equation was first developed by a bond trader named Nick Scott in 1989. It is said that he didn't disclose the equation, but people studied the levels & reverse engineered it to find the formula. There r different versions of this formula.

We discussed about ‘Range’ in the earlier thread. The range is basically the difference between High & Low of the session.

High – Low = Range of the session
Continuing with the same levels as an example, If High of the day is 105 and Low is 95, Range of the session is 10 points.

Range shows us activity during the session irrespective of the trend.
Narrow range = Not much movement
Wide Range = Strong activity

Camarilla calculation depends on the Range of the session.

Let’s expand the range to 110%. If Current range is 10, let us make it 11.

Let’s now divide this Range in four parts.

9.17%, 18.33%, 27.50% and 55% of the range.

So, if Range is 10 points:
10 x 9.17% = 0.92
10 x 18.33% = 1.83
10 x 27.50% = 2.75
10 x 55% = 5.50

@rachitagrawal97 Hammer at bottom = bullish
Same pattern is Hanging man when appears at top = bearish
Inverted hammer at bottom = bullish
Same pattern is shooting star when appears at top = bearish.

I have tested bullish & bearish brrakout of these patterns.

Is HDFC undervalued ?

Market capitalisation of HDFC is 3,10,478 Crores. But HDFC houses listed holdings worth 2,19,437 Crores and several unlisted businesses.

FY20 profit was 21,435 Crores. Setting aside the holdings, HDFC is trading at a PE of 3-4.

Let's dig deeper. A thread.

About HDFC

They are the leaders in housing finance.

AUM: 5,16,773 Crores
Secured Lending: 97%
CAR: 17.6%
NIM: 3.4%
Average Individual Loan: 27 Lakhs
Deposit Agents: 24000
Employees: 3095
Assets Per Employee: 163 Crores
Profit Per Employee: 3 Crores
Auditor Fees: 5.28 Crores

HDFC Bank

HDFC owns 21.24% of HDFC Bank. The stake is worth 1,22,812 Crores. In FY20 HDFC Bank paid a dividend of 864 Crores to HDFC.

HDFC sources 26% of the loans through HDFC Bank. HDFC Bank has the right to buy 70% of the loans sourced.

Performance of HDFC Bank:

HDFC Life

HDFC owns 51.44 of HDFC Life. The stake is worth 61,779 Crores. HDFC Life didn't pay a dividend last year adhering to the suggestions from IRDAI.

RBI has directed HDFC to bring its shareholding in HDFC Life to 50% by 16th December 2020.

Performance of HDFC Life:

HDFC AMC

HDFC owns 52.7% of HDFC AMC. The stake is worth 27,230 Crores. Last year HDFC AMC paid a dividend of 135 Crores to HDFC.

AUM: 3.7 Lakh Crores

Performance of HDFC AMC:

SIMPLE & FREE LEARNING FOR U ALL FRIENDS

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