@Iplaywithgerms This paper gives documentation on software (with causal reasoning, assumptions reviewed in appendix) for a parametric approach to estimating either "total effects" or "controlled direct effects" with competing events and time-varying
https://t.co/uRQcU1NqJd
https://t.co/kew3HltAev
https://t.co/RNhcgTBMkb
And here
https://t.co/rMWmwFBWwV
Others in reference lists of above papers.
https://t.co/uRQcU1NqJd
even when treatment is time-fixed, hazard ratios (whether cause-specific or subdistribution) do not quantify causal effects (even when counterfactual contrasts) except in special circumstances that will not hold in most studies
https://t.co/35OJDe8dD6
https://t.co/O08FNqPWWb
https://t.co/wKCrItvNhT
More from Software
buffalo uses dominion scoreboard software so not really
DEAD PEOPLE SCORED FOR BUFFALO!
A truck delivered off a suitcase full of points at halftime from Canada for Buffalo.
#StopTheSteel !!!!
I’ll be submitting sworn affidavits from Steelers fans than they saw the Buffalo rigging the game but I want to emphasize that I’m not under oath.
Sports Minute: Bills improve to 10-3 with 26-15 win over sloppy Steelers https://t.co/lg0isTiE92
— Erie News Now (@ErieNewsNow) December 14, 2020
DEAD PEOPLE SCORED FOR BUFFALO!
A truck delivered off a suitcase full of points at halftime from Canada for Buffalo.
#StopTheSteel !!!!
I’ll be submitting sworn affidavits from Steelers fans than they saw the Buffalo rigging the game but I want to emphasize that I’m not under oath.
The Great Software Stagnation is real, but we have to understand it to fight it. The CAUSE of the TGSS is not "teh interwebs". The cause is the "direct manipulation" paradigm : the "worst idea in computer science" \1
Progress in CS comes from discovering ever more abstract and expressive languages to tell the computer to do something. But replacing "tell the computer to do something in language" with "do it yourself using these gestures" halts that progress. \2
Stagnation started in the 1970s after the first GUIs were invented. Every genre of software that gives users a "friendly" GUI interface, effectively freezes progress at that level of abstraction / expressivity. Because we can never abandon old direct manipulation metaphors \3
The 1990s were simply the point when most people in the world finally got access to a personal computer with a GUI. So that's where we see most of the ideas frozen. \4
It's no surprise that the improvements @jonathoda cites, that are still taking place are improvements in textual representation : \5
The Great Software\xa0Stagnation https://t.co/A6peSPERaU
— Jonathan Edwards (@jonathoda) January 1, 2021
Progress in CS comes from discovering ever more abstract and expressive languages to tell the computer to do something. But replacing "tell the computer to do something in language" with "do it yourself using these gestures" halts that progress. \2
Stagnation started in the 1970s after the first GUIs were invented. Every genre of software that gives users a "friendly" GUI interface, effectively freezes progress at that level of abstraction / expressivity. Because we can never abandon old direct manipulation metaphors \3
The 1990s were simply the point when most people in the world finally got access to a personal computer with a GUI. So that's where we see most of the ideas frozen. \4
It's no surprise that the improvements @jonathoda cites, that are still taking place are improvements in textual representation : \5
As the year wrap's up, let's run through some of the worst public security mistakes and delays in fixes by AWS in 2020. A thread.
First, that time when an AWS employee posted confidential AWS customer information including including AWS access keys for those customer accounts to
Discovery by @SpenGietz that you can disable CloudTrail without triggering GuardDuty by using cloudtrail:PutEventSelectors to filter all events.
Amazon launched their bug bounty, but specifically excluded AWS, which has no bug bounty.
Repeated, over and over again examples of AWS having no change control over their Managed IAM policies, including the mistaken release of CheesepuffsServiceRolePolicy, AWSServiceRoleForThorInternalDevPolicy, AWSCodeArtifactReadOnlyAccess.json, AmazonCirrusGammaRoleForInstaller.
First, that time when an AWS employee posted confidential AWS customer information including including AWS access keys for those customer accounts to
Fresh data breach news-
— Chris Vickery (@VickerySec) January 23, 2020
Amazon AWS engineer exposes work-related keys, passwords, and documents marked "Amazon Confidential" via public Github repository: https://t.co/7gkIegnslx
Discovered within 30 minutes of exposure by my team at @UpGuard.
Discovery by @SpenGietz that you can disable CloudTrail without triggering GuardDuty by using cloudtrail:PutEventSelectors to filter all events.
"Disable" most #AWS #CloudTrail logging without triggering #GuardDuty:https://t.co/zVe4uSHog9
— Rhino Security Labs (@RhinoSecurity) April 23, 2020
Reported to AWS Security and it is not a bug.
Amazon launched their bug bounty, but specifically excluded AWS, which has no bug bounty.
Amazon Vulnerability Research Program - Doesn't include AWS D:https://t.co/stJHDG68pj#BugBounty #AWS
— Spencer Gietzen (@SpenGietz) April 22, 2020
Repeated, over and over again examples of AWS having no change control over their Managed IAM policies, including the mistaken release of CheesepuffsServiceRolePolicy, AWSServiceRoleForThorInternalDevPolicy, AWSCodeArtifactReadOnlyAccess.json, AmazonCirrusGammaRoleForInstaller.