Categories Society
7 days
30 days
All time
Recent
Popular
There is much furore over Ag-LFDs again this week, with the arguments often over-simplified, & even turning toxic.
It doesn't help that the government have, & are continuing to, lie their way through the pandemic.
But that doesn't mean Ag-LFDs are all bad...
A thread 👇
1/
MHRA yesterday ruled that Ag-LFDs should not be used in schools to regularly test contacts of cases to reduce time spent in isolation.
This is a risky approach, & there is no data of the effectiveness (or cost-effectiveness), so this a fair decision.
This ruling, while probably correct & fair, will likely further damage public trust in testing, particularly as the debate rages on with government saying one thing and the MHRA another.
So, I thought it time for me to cut through the noise & ask - What does the data show?
3/
Much of the discourse over the past few months has been obsessing over the ‘poor’ performance of Ag-LFDs.
The principal argument has been that the Liverpool testing pilot showed they only find 40% of infections. But does this figure actually show us anything meaningful?
4/
The Liverpool community testing pilot evaluated asymptomatic testing using Ag-LFDs. They ran a sub-sample of tests of 5689 individuals, from 48 different testing sites, which were swabbed (supervised self-swab) for Ag-LFD and PCR side by side.
https://t.co/W8Rksg3dql
5/
It doesn't help that the government have, & are continuing to, lie their way through the pandemic.
But that doesn't mean Ag-LFDs are all bad...
A thread 👇
1/
MHRA yesterday ruled that Ag-LFDs should not be used in schools to regularly test contacts of cases to reduce time spent in isolation.
This is a risky approach, & there is no data of the effectiveness (or cost-effectiveness), so this a fair decision.
This ruling, while probably correct & fair, will likely further damage public trust in testing, particularly as the debate rages on with government saying one thing and the MHRA another.
So, I thought it time for me to cut through the noise & ask - What does the data show?
3/
Much of the discourse over the past few months has been obsessing over the ‘poor’ performance of Ag-LFDs.
The principal argument has been that the Liverpool testing pilot showed they only find 40% of infections. But does this figure actually show us anything meaningful?
4/
The Liverpool community testing pilot evaluated asymptomatic testing using Ag-LFDs. They ran a sub-sample of tests of 5689 individuals, from 48 different testing sites, which were swabbed (supervised self-swab) for Ag-LFD and PCR side by side.
https://t.co/W8Rksg3dql
5/
Here we go
"On Dec. 29, after receiving the budget, Wren instructed Chafian... to hold off on printing event-related slogans “until we decide what the messaging is and we have no clue on timing because it all depends on the votes that day so we won’t know timing for a few more days.”
"The “timing” appears to be a reference to Congress’ Jan. 6 vote to certify the election results." Well that's going to get some attention by law enforcement
"Chafian told ProPublica that she herself had been directed by [Alex] Jones to Wren, who, she was told, had ties to a wealthy donor who wanted to support the January affair. Chafian said the donor is a woman but wouldn’t disclose her name, citing a confidentiality agreement."
"A guidance memo provided to VIP attendees of the Jan. 6 rally further establishes Wren’s centrality to the event. She is listed, along with three other people, as one of the primary points of contact for the demonstration."
We got texts between the organizers of the Jan. 6, which the Trump campaign says they definitely, absolutely didn\u2019t organize.
— Eric Umansky (@ericuman) January 30, 2021
\u201cGet the budget and vendors breakdown to me,\u201d wrote a long-time Trump fundraising officialhttps://t.co/ScyGTGz8Mp
By @mikespiesnyc @JakePearsonProP
"On Dec. 29, after receiving the budget, Wren instructed Chafian... to hold off on printing event-related slogans “until we decide what the messaging is and we have no clue on timing because it all depends on the votes that day so we won’t know timing for a few more days.”
"The “timing” appears to be a reference to Congress’ Jan. 6 vote to certify the election results." Well that's going to get some attention by law enforcement
"Chafian told ProPublica that she herself had been directed by [Alex] Jones to Wren, who, she was told, had ties to a wealthy donor who wanted to support the January affair. Chafian said the donor is a woman but wouldn’t disclose her name, citing a confidentiality agreement."
"A guidance memo provided to VIP attendees of the Jan. 6 rally further establishes Wren’s centrality to the event. She is listed, along with three other people, as one of the primary points of contact for the demonstration."
Every year I invite non-Native folks who are celebrating the colonial holiday to do something in support of Native people. This holiday isn’t a happy one for a lot of folks, but if you would like to extend some solidarity to Native folks this weekend, here’s a thread for that.
This thread is a list of groups and people I will personally be supporting today and I invite you all to join me. First up, @4directionsvote is committed to the full enfranchisement of Native people. To fight Native voter suppression, you can donate here:
Woodland Women is a group that offers mutual support & healing for women on my rez. It’s a crucial support system. They make regalia each yr to give away at the holidays. They need supplies & would like to add other care package items for folks in crisis.
To support a Native mom who has been doing a whole lot of mutual aid work, you can give to [email protected] on via paypal.
This Indigenous land defender who is always showing up for others, and for the struggle, could use help paying a few bills.
Donate:
This thread is a list of groups and people I will personally be supporting today and I invite you all to join me. First up, @4directionsvote is committed to the full enfranchisement of Native people. To fight Native voter suppression, you can donate here:
Woodland Women is a group that offers mutual support & healing for women on my rez. It’s a crucial support system. They make regalia each yr to give away at the holidays. They need supplies & would like to add other care package items for folks in crisis.
To support a Native mom who has been doing a whole lot of mutual aid work, you can give to [email protected] on via paypal.
This Indigenous land defender who is always showing up for others, and for the struggle, could use help paying a few bills.
Donate:
A few things that I didn't cover yesterday when I talked about equity factor models (it's a huge area and it's impossible to more than scrape the surface)
1. How do you get the exposure matrix Xt?
There are different ways to estimate it, depending on the factor. Simplest is factors like industry or country exposure where the entries can be 0/1 depending on whether the stock is in that industry/country or not.
Some exposures can be estimated by linear regression on historical data, if you already have a time series which approximates the factor returns. E.g. exposure to the market factor (beta) is estimated this way, by regressing each stock against the S&P 500 (or some other index)
This also works for "macro" factors e.g. you can estimate exposures for each stock to commodity prices, exchange rates, interest rates, GDP or inflation surprises etc by regressing stock returns against the relevant historical time series.
Finally you can have exposures which are heuristically derived from other observable data about the stock, e.g. accounting data, analyst reports, past price movements etc. In this case you find some metric which measures the factor you care about (e.g. price to earnings) and
A few people in the DMs asking about equity factor models so here's a short explainer.
— macrocephalopod (@macrocephalopod) February 2, 2021
Let's make it a concrete problem -- you are the risk manager at a big multi-manager hedge fund with ~100 sub-PMs each of whom has a portfolio of 10-50 stocks, long and short.
1. How do you get the exposure matrix Xt?
There are different ways to estimate it, depending on the factor. Simplest is factors like industry or country exposure where the entries can be 0/1 depending on whether the stock is in that industry/country or not.
Some exposures can be estimated by linear regression on historical data, if you already have a time series which approximates the factor returns. E.g. exposure to the market factor (beta) is estimated this way, by regressing each stock against the S&P 500 (or some other index)
This also works for "macro" factors e.g. you can estimate exposures for each stock to commodity prices, exchange rates, interest rates, GDP or inflation surprises etc by regressing stock returns against the relevant historical time series.
Finally you can have exposures which are heuristically derived from other observable data about the stock, e.g. accounting data, analyst reports, past price movements etc. In this case you find some metric which measures the factor you care about (e.g. price to earnings) and
THREAD: one more time on the need for citizens to understand the need for, then demand, then deliberate on, then manage - a total pivotal change. Next tweet..what is a pivot and why we need one 1/
We all did this as kids: Walk up a see-saw, you keep going fine until you cross the fulcrum then WHAM! It flips.This is what happens in nature when resources are used up faster than they are replenished. All goes fine until nearly half are used up. All who study biology know..2/
This flip is a population crash. It is natural. Important to know: the crash comes after the point where more resources are being used up than are being replenished. There is a period of overshoot. The crash comes some time after overshoot. Can that happen to humans? 3/
According to Joseph Tainter (1988) there have been three:
Ancient Rome
Mayan Civilisation
Ancestral Puebloans
Modern society is exhibiting all the signs (Club of Rome 1972) 4/
https://t.co/ND85PXV9MB
All of this is well-known by scholars. But somehow it does not seem to have sunk in with citizens in general. The urgency. So let me say it again in a retweet-worthy way 5/
We all did this as kids: Walk up a see-saw, you keep going fine until you cross the fulcrum then WHAM! It flips.This is what happens in nature when resources are used up faster than they are replenished. All goes fine until nearly half are used up. All who study biology know..2/
This flip is a population crash. It is natural. Important to know: the crash comes after the point where more resources are being used up than are being replenished. There is a period of overshoot. The crash comes some time after overshoot. Can that happen to humans? 3/
According to Joseph Tainter (1988) there have been three:
Ancient Rome
Mayan Civilisation
Ancestral Puebloans
Modern society is exhibiting all the signs (Club of Rome 1972) 4/
https://t.co/ND85PXV9MB
All of this is well-known by scholars. But somehow it does not seem to have sunk in with citizens in general. The urgency. So let me say it again in a retweet-worthy way 5/
Connections: From the European Frankfurt School to Black Lives Matter and Critical Theory, an exploration https://t.co/ojp1kC7TaB 1/
We are in the midst of a battle of ideas against an adversary that is skilled and has been hard at work over decades in our academic and cultural institutions. https://t.co/ojp1kC7TaB 2/
Marxism predicted the inevitable transition from capitalism to communism through class struggle and the internal contradictions of the capitalist system. https://t.co/ojp1kC7TaB 3/
When this failed to happen, & instead the working class, & society in general grew richer within a capitalist framework, the Frankfurt School came into existence in Frankfurt, Germany in 1923, & following the rise of the Nazis moved to @Columbia Univ in the USA in 1933. 4/
They developed a critique of the capitalist system and the culture that makes it possible to exist and thrive. Critical theory seeks to change the culture to bring about the Marxist revolution that material and economic forces alone could not achieve. https://t.co/ojp1kC7TaB 5/
We are in the midst of a battle of ideas against an adversary that is skilled and has been hard at work over decades in our academic and cultural institutions. https://t.co/ojp1kC7TaB 2/
Marxism predicted the inevitable transition from capitalism to communism through class struggle and the internal contradictions of the capitalist system. https://t.co/ojp1kC7TaB 3/
When this failed to happen, & instead the working class, & society in general grew richer within a capitalist framework, the Frankfurt School came into existence in Frankfurt, Germany in 1923, & following the rise of the Nazis moved to @Columbia Univ in the USA in 1933. 4/
They developed a critique of the capitalist system and the culture that makes it possible to exist and thrive. Critical theory seeks to change the culture to bring about the Marxist revolution that material and economic forces alone could not achieve. https://t.co/ojp1kC7TaB 5/