BC SOCIETY
Saved by @Mollyycolllinss

I've been wanting to write this thread for a while. It has been inspired by hearing a common thought: why can't people just "listen"? If people just followed the rules, we wouldn't be in this mess. I think this is oversimplification of the problem with COVID: 1/

 It is true, there are people who haven't been following guidelines (by definition that happened a LOT at Christmas/NYE in my region), but even before, we know transmission in private gatherings happens. 2/
These private gatherings are pictured to be big raucous parties, but in reality, even before lockdown, this is just people having dinner, watching TV, doing things we did before on a daily basis. These little ripples when added across the country make a big wave.. 3/
...and little can be done about this apart from positive messaging. You can't very well have police patrolling neighbourhoods across the country. 4/
Next thing is we keep hearing over and over and over, stay home. There are diminishing returns with this advice, but also, most people who can stay home ARE. So what's the issue? There are a HUGE # of people who can't stay home because they work in essential jobs 5/
These are jobs in factories, warehouses, transport companies, etc. What's worse is that many people who work in these sectors have large households so it can amplify to many people all at once. Neither of these are prevented by lockdown or curfew. 6/
Many workers here go to work feeling unwell (when quite contagious) because the alternative is being off for several days and potentially not having money to pay for essentials. 7/
When compared to the message "Stay home!" we don't hear about the (huge) issue in tweet #6&7, though we are starting to: paid sick leave, community testing blitzes, isolation centres. 8/
Another factor is winter. SARS-COV2 is a resp virus, and like other resp viruses, its spread happens best indoors with prolonged, close contact (enhanced by poor ventilation). This is why historically we see flu or common cold outbreaks especially in winter. 9/
A common thing I hear is that what's happening to us right now is because we "just didn't do enough" or we were "reckless". Sure, some of the problem could be ways we handled outbreak, but there is a lot that was not in our control. 10/
A resp virus which spreads best at and just before the onset of symps (often very mild) means that it's not something we could ever contain in most circumstances. Yep, some countries were successful, but it's complex and goes beyond just, "everyone followed the rules" 11/
Now on to the lockdown: there is a lot of criticism that we "just haven't locked down enough". That may be the case, but going beyond the restrictions we already have, apart from closing essential services, there are few options left. 12/
The curfew in Quebec seems like it would work if your impression of the situation was that spread is happening because people are not staying home. But as I mentioned above, it is much more complex, and this does not address some of the major drivers... 13/
...some that we could act on (occupational safety, paid sick leave, isolation centres etc) and others we can't do much more about without getting heavy-handed (indoor transmission in private gatherings) 14/
Ironically, a curfew could potentially worsen things if more people on average are gathering inside. Unintended consequences are important to consider. A large intervention is often like squeezing a balloon. 15/
Oh and by the way, though no one likes restrictions and lockdowns, it should be said that at some point it definitely becomes necessary to attempt to slow spread and reduce eventual strain on hospitals. 16/
Summary:
1. Pandemic is complex and much more than just people not listening.
2. We should think about things lockdowns/curfews don't address like occupational exposure
3. Advice to reduce contacts currently is important, but is not the only focus of public health response 17/
4. There are many factors we can't control (e.g. weather) that play a big role, so to blame current situation squarely on failure on something we did or didn't do, is not accurate. 18/
This past year I've learned so much about public health and infectious diseases (i'm a specialist in latter, and work closely with former), and I'm still riddled with uncertainty! Ecstatic that vaccination is here and we can see that light at the end of the tunnel! 19/19

More from Society

Evan Sparks
Evan Sparks
@EvanSparks
So, as the #MegaMillions jackpot reaches a record $1.6B and #Powerball reaches $620M, here's my advice about how to spend the money in a way that will truly set you, your children and their kids up for life.

Ready?

Create a private foundation and give it all away. 1/

Let's stipulate first that lottery winners often have a hard time. Being publicly identified makes you a target for "friends" and "family" who want your money, as well as for non-family grifters and con men. 2/

The stress can be damaging, even deadly, and Uncle Sam takes his huge cut. Plus, having a big pool of disposable income can be irresistible to people not accustomed to managing wealth. https://t.co/fiHsuJyZwz 3/

Meanwhile, the private foundation is as close as we come to Downton Abbey and the landed aristocracy in this country. It's a largely untaxed pot of money that grows significantly over time, and those who control them tend to entrench their own privileges and those of their kin. 4

Here's how it works for a big lotto winner:

1. Win the prize.
2. Announce that you are donating it to the YOUR NAME HERE Family Foundation.
3. Receive massive plaudits in the press. You will be a folk hero for this decision.
4. Appoint only trusted friends/family to board. 5/
SOCIETY
Arielle Selya
Arielle Selya
@ArielleSelya
1/14 How do e-cigarettes (ECs) affect cigarette smoking among youth? My new paper with @FloeFoxon simulates each scenario and finds out which one best matches actual trends... https://t.co/dBB7kcnTls @jgitchell @mikepesko @SwitchFinder @jkelovuori @TobPolicy @Clive_Bates

2/14 First, let's talk about why this question is so difficult to answer: COUNTERFACTUALS. We can't know the alternate-reality answers, like which smokers would have never started in a world without ECs, and which nonsmokers would now be smoking without ECs as an option.

3/14 So, the best we can do is use fancy/sophisticated methodologies to estimate what would have happened to youth smoking rates in the absence of ECs. In our case, simulation modeling


4/14 First, we look at the declining smoking trends *that were already happening* before ECs came (~2010), and project them into the present. This is our BASE-CASE SCENARIO about what smoking trends would be if ECs were never invented. Actual trends were LOWER than this base-case


5/14 Side note about terminology: We use the term “catalyst” instead of “gateway,” because “catalyst” is more precise about the claim we are modeling (that ECs are used first, and then causally lead to smoking). Whereas "gateway" can include other mechanisms like renormalization.
SOCIETY
Advertisement
Noah Smith
Noah Smith
@Noahpinion
1/OK, I should really write another thread about university-centric regional development, because I think people often make some (very understandable) mistakes when thinking about this issue.

2/The biggest myth, I think, is that universities help regions by educating locals as undergraduates.

Skeptics of universities say: "But most of the people who graduate end up leaving."

3/In fact, most of what a university does for a regional economy is NOT about educating local kids.

Educating local kids is good for the nation, but doesn't help a region much.

The way a university helps a region is through

4/Undergraduates usually leave town after graduation.

But university RESEARCH pulls in OTHER smart people from other regions, and they stay there.

Here's a paper showing that this is the main way universities increase a region's human capital:

5/Research also pulls in business investment.

Companies want to partner with university labs, so they can commercialize the technologies the labs produce. So they invest in the labs, and sometimes they even put their offices in the town.
SOCIETY
Polyamorous Tantric Sex Guru
Polyamorous Tantric Se...
@BethLynch2020
"this is not a third world country.."


"this is not a third world country.."


"this is not a third world country..."


"this is not a third world country.."


"this is not a third world country.."
SOCIETY
Lindsey Simmons
Lindsey Simmons
@LynzforCongress
When I was 25, I worked as a legislative assistant in the Missouri General Assembly.

It was a dream job, honestly.

But that dream dissipated the day the #MoLeg decided to name Rush Limbaugh as an “honorable Missourian” and place his bust in the “Hall of Famous Missourians.”

1/

The Hall of Famous Missourians sits in the Missouri State Capitol.

There are busts of Mark Twain, Dred Scott, Josephine Baker, Harry Truman and other legends of history.

The day I learned Rush Limbaugh would join their ranks, I thought it was a joke.

2/

We received phone calls from constituents appalled that Missouri would honor a man who had become infamous that year for calling a college student a “slut.”

And who just that week had continued spreading the racist birtherism lie about our then-President, Barack Obama.

3/

What I learned that day is that it wasn’t *despite* his racism, but because of it that he received this award.

It’s because he created a universe where it was permissible to lynch with language America’s first black President.

4/

Several State Representatives and their staffers intended to protest the vote and the selection.

By the time we made it to the doors of the House Floor, we weren’t allowed in. It was Republicans only. The doors were locked and secured by the Highway Patrol.

5/
SOCIETY

You May Also Like

meilong
meilong
@meilong15
一个北大毕业的殡葬工自述武汉封城期间的经历，凄惨。这应该才是武汉的真实情景，跟很多人的叙述是吻合的。


https://t.co/QYTO1SYedG
WUHAN FUNERAL WORKERS REPORT
Vibhu Vashisth \U0001f1ee\U0001f1f3
Vibhu Vashisth 🇮🇳...
@VIBHU_Tweet
VEDIC COSMOLOGY, also known as Hindu Cosmology, and cosmography are both interesting and inspiring. Today’s “modern” Vedic texts originated around 3,000 B.C.E. This is the oldest scientific and the oldest religious doctrine known to the human race.


Our current astronomy of the solar system and universe has its roots in Vedic knowledge. It only shows that man had advanced knowledge of astronomy way before our current civilization came into existence.
We are here to talk about the Vedic version of the planetary system,

starting at the top from the eternal planets to the temporary planetary system within innumerable universes in the material world.

Talking about “cosmic manifestation,” we need to incorporate both spiritual and material existence.


The spiritual realm of the planets is everlasting, and this will forever be beyond what the material universe can encapsulate. The spiritual realm belongs to the “super dimensional” or “anti-material” dimension. It means that it is beyond what we can perceive,


beyond time as a linear dimension, and the space of our vision and perception.

There are innumerable planets, all indestructible and forever lasting. That is what the Vedas say about the spiritual planets. Our concentration here is more towards the material side of things.
ALL
Advertisement
Jijo Sunny
Jijo Sunny
@JijoSunny
1/ 👋 Excited to share what we’ve been building at https://t.co/GOQJ7LjQ2t + we are going to tweetstorm our progress every week!

Week 1 highlights: getting shortlisted for YC W2019🤞, acquiring a premium domain💰, meeting Substack's @hamishmckenzie and Stripe CEO @patrickc 🤩

2/ So what is Brew?

brew / bru : / to make (beer, coffee etc.) / verb: begin to develop 🌱

A place for you to enjoy premium content while supporting your favorite creators. Sort of like a ‘Consumer-facing Patreon’ cc @jackconte

(we’re still working on the pitch)

3/ So, why be so transparent? Two words: launch strategy.

jk 😅 a) I loooove doing something consistently for a long period of time b) limited downside and infinite upside (feedback, accountability, reach).
cc @altimor, @pmarca


4/ https://t.co/GOQJ7LjQ2t domain 🍻

It started with a cold email. Guess what? He was using BuyMeACoffee on his blog, and was excited to hear about what we're building next. Within 2w, we signed the deal at @Escrowcom's SF office. You’re a pleasure to work with @MichaelCyger!

5/ @ycombinator's invite for the in-person interview arrived that evening. Quite a day!

Thanks @patio11 for the thoughtful feedback on our YC application, and @gabhubert for your directions on positioning the product — set the tone for our pitch!
TECH
WORLD OF SANATAN DHARMA
WORLD OF SANATAN DHARM...
@world_sanatan
WHY BABUR NEVER TRIED TO ATTACK SRI KRISHNADEVARAYA ?

A🧵u must read

It is very well known that Babur considered Krishna Dev Raya as the strongest ruler of the entire subcontinent, and Vijayanagar empire the strongest during that time in India.

1/10


The Vijayanagar empire reached its peak during 1509-1529 around the reign of Krishna Dev Raya.

Vijayanagar’s famed elephant brigade 👇

2/10


At his command there were over 50000 elite troops with a regiment of Portuguese gunners and 3200 cavalry with 600 elephants.

3/10

Along with that more than four hundred thousand ( four lakh) peasant levies and irregular military made this empire one of the largest in all of South Asia.

A typical Vijayanagar levie soldier 👇

4/10


During Baburs invasion, Krishna Dev Raya ruled supreme in all of deccan.

In fact, in an all our brawl, Krisha Dev Raya will beat Babur fair and square.

Babur could muster at max 50000 troops with 50 canons.

While Krishna Dev Raya had these numbers in Hampi alone

5/10
ALL
Jonathan Ware
Jonathan Ware
@ReassessHistory
So when it first appeared in Normandy, the Sherman Firefly and it's meaty 17 pounder represented an ideal combo of reliable chassis, great gun and devastating firepower right?

Ummm...

Truth is a bit more complex. /1
#WW2 #SWW #History


Deliveries of Firefly to units only commenced in April 1944,
just a few weeks before Overlord & left minimal time for familiarisation.

Armoured Regiments mostly utilised Fireflies on a basis of 1 per troop of 4 tanks. /2


Finally each armoured regiment troop had access to integral, meaty, anti-tank firepower capable of dealing serious damage to any German AFV likely to be encountered. /3


The dual purpose 75mm gun was quite capable of laying down a reasonable HE shell or AP round for dealing with Panzer III or IV.

Firefly's 17 Pounder had.... problems with HE, but excelled at tank killing. So Tigers and Panthers would need to be wary. /4


Firefly's design history dated back to March 1943 when the General Staff published "Policy on Tanks" which effectively stated the majority of tanks should have a good HE weapon and...

[See image below] /5
HISTORY