What @ClimateBen says is best available science, not fringe opinion. Sources below. And it doesn't happen suddenly AT the end of the 40s. It has already begun and worsens over time. It's a train wreck in slow motion with suffering and deaths and global destabilisation and fascism

"You don't see radio changing gradually and suddenly become radar. #Darwin's theory doesn't work for #technology, and we have to make a new observation."

- W Brian Arthur at SFI today

#evolution #innovation #invention

"Novel technologies are constructed from existing technologies. These offer themselves as components for the construction of further technologies."

- W Brian Arthur at SFI today

#evolution #innovation #invention #technology #engineering #design

Unlike the two-parent #inheritance typical to (but not ubiquitous among) #complex organisms, #technology inherits features from n parents - a "vast ancestral #network" more like horizontal gene transfer networks in #bacteria.

W Brian Arthur on sumulating #invention on a chip:

Does #Archaeology support the Theory of the #AdjacentPossible - that #innovation is combinatorial, persistent, cumulative?

In short, yes. SFI's Tim Kohler on the #Paleolithic data of #technology #evolution & the #prehistory of the infamous "hockeystick" curve:

😉 @SAPIENS_org

#Economist Roger Koppl of @SyracuseU presents a model for the #AdjacentPossible at SFI.

Output = "a combinatorial explosion" or #singularity, albeit one that arguably occurred millions of years ago, or in the distant future (since the model doesn't specify t = 0):

1/

Get a cup of coffee.

In this thread, I'll help you understand the basics of Binomial Thinking.

The future is always uncertain. There are many different ways it can unfold -- some more likely than others. Binomial thinking helps us embrace this view.

2/

The S&P 500 index is at ~3768 today.

Suppose we want to predict where it will be 10 years from now.

Historically, we know that this index has returned ~10% per year.

If we simply extrapolate this, we get an estimate of ~9773 for the index 10 years from now:

3/

What we just did is called a "point estimate" -- a prediction about the future that's a single number (9773).

But of course, we know the future is uncertain. It's impossible to predict it so precisely.

So, there's a sense of *false precision* in point estimates like this.

4/

To emphasize the uncertainty inherent in such predictions, a better approach is to predict a *range* of values rather than a single number.

For example, we may say the index will return somewhere in the *range* of 8% to 12% (instead of a fixed 10%) per year.

5/

10 years from now, this implies an index value in the *range* [8135, 11703]:

Did we get dietary saturated fats all wrong? The #HADLmodel provides a new understanding and an opportunity to get it right. THREAD👇👇👇
@simondankel @kariannesve

Increased dietary saturated fatty acids lead to increased cholesterol in lipoproteins, but we don’t know why. Enter the #HADLmodel, which explains changes in lipoprotein cholesterol as adaptive homeostatic adjustments that ensure optimal cell membrane fluidity and cell function.

We propose that circulating lipoproteins enable appropriate redistribution of cholesterol molecules between specific cells and tissues, to accomodate changes in dietary fatty acid supply, due to our omnivore nature and variable intake of fatty acids. #HADLmodel

Our #HADLmodel implies that circulating levels of LDL change for protective, not for pathological reasons; an SFA-induced raise in LDL cholesterol in healthy individuals is a normal response, while a lack of this needed response may reflect a deeper pathology in lipid handling.

Circulating lipoproteins may change for pathological reasons, when regulatory mechanisms become disrupted by pathogenic processes related e.g. to inflammatory processes. Diverging lipoprotein responses in healthy versus metabolically unhealthy individuals support this view.