Headline is a click bait, but nos are good.
Housing sales surge 113% in top 7 cities even as prices rise; massive 300% spike in Hyderabad

https://t.co/NODfkp3BxA

The real estate market in India expanded at a CAGR of ~10% from $50bn to $120bn between 2008-17.

It's estimated to expand at a CAGR of 17.7% to $1tn by 2030. It will added $820bn in 10 years from $180bn in 2020.

Will throw a number of opportunities along the way.

@moneyworks4u_fa @shivaji_1983 @_gauravchopra Not just copper

Why & how does rising Crude Oil hurt India?

A short thread 🧵

India is the 3rd largest consumer of Oil at 5.35 million barrels per day (MBPD) behind US (21.2mbpd) and China (15.1mbpd)

India imports nearly 85% of its total Crude oil consumption every year.

India's own production has been below 700,000 barrels per day for a long time.

India imports oil in the following share as per FY 21 numbers:

Iran 17%,
Saudi Arabia 16%,
UAE 14%,
USA 9%,
Qatar 8%,
Others 38%

India import share for Oil from Russia is under 2%, an insignificant number.

India imports about 290 Million tones of Oil in a year.

Assuming that Oil prices are at $75 (last year),
India's oil import bill is ~ $165bn

India exports refined petroleum products as well. At $75 oil price those exports would amount to $58bn

=Oil trade deficit of $105bn

Oil at:
$100, India's oil trade deficit (imports - exports) would be ~ $140bn

For every $10 rise in Crude Oil from say $100, India's oil trade deficit will rise by ~$15bn

For instance at $120 Oil price it would be ~ $170bn

Why Gold could be 'The' asset to focus on and how to play it?

In 2021, gold hasn't done much. Its down 6% YTD. It was up a clean 20% in 2020.

What could be in store ahead. A thread 🧵 explaining drivers and way ahead.

There are 4 factors that are key to watch

1. Massive financial debasement across the world

2. Negative Real Interest rates

3. Gold's unique diversification edge

4. Incremental demand Vs limited supply

Financial debasement
US Fed's balance sheet has doubled from $4.2 trn to $8.4trn since COVID began. Similarly ECB, BOJ, BOE and EM central banks have embarked on massive monetary stimulus.

This was used to finance Govt deficit. This monetization/debasement is bullish for Gold.

Negative real rates
Gold prices follow moves in interest rates. Real interest rates are the nominal level of interest rates minus the inflation rate. Negative real rates erode the value of money. Gold being a store of value benefits from this...

Real rates are the most negative that they have been. Even junk bond yields have turned negative adjusted for inflation.
Gold moves inline with moves in real rates. With inflation still above normal trend and central banks likely to keep rates low, Gold is likely to benefit.

Ethanol blending as a concept has roots in 1826. In 1876 a more evolved use began. Nicolaus Otto, the inventor of the modern 4-cycle IC engine, used ethanol to power an early engine

Modern industry has its root in crony capitalism of 1960-70s in US

It's still a sunrise sector🙄

If there is one sentence that symbolizes the rotten nature of Noida real estate. (Yes, less than 1 cr)

"In 8 cases–the net worth of the sub-lessee was less than even Rs 1 crore but were permitted sub-lease of plots aggregating worth over Rs 500

Real Estate Inventory is consistently reducing across the top 7 cities in India.

source: Jefferies, Propequity

🌆Real estate is not like your ordinary grocery item.
👉Where inc. in prices leads to lower demand.

👉In Real estate, with inc. in prices there is a panic among fence sitters to buy before the price rises,leading to more uptake in volumes.

&

⬆️Start of a new up-cycle.

The real estate market in India expanded at a CAGR of ~10% from $50bn to $120bn between 2008-17.

It's estimated to expand at a CAGR of 17.7% to $1tn by 2030. It will added $820bn in 10 years from $180bn in 2020.

Will throw a number of opportunities along the way.

@VishalBhargava5 The issue is that builders offering smaller carpet area per room. In some cases, it’s even difficult to fit king size bed.