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Unsolicited advice to INC & Oppo. Parties

I had done an analysis of performance of non-BJP parties, particularly INC in 2019 LS elections to look for lessons for 2024. I focused on INC as it occupies no2 position in our polity despite its dwindling profile
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 Accordingly I divided the States/UT into 3 categories - A, B and C

Category A represents those States/UT where INC remains either No1 or No2 as per vote share in 2019 elections (Primary Party); Category B refers States/UT where INC is not No1 or No2 but has/can have partner
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Category C represents States/UT where INC is a marginal player and where alliance is also not practically possible.

As we know, BJP won 303 seats (NDA at 355) (incl. SS-18). INC won 52 (UPA at 92). Other Parties won 96 seats
Category-wise breakup of 52 seats given in Table:

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INC remains a primary force in 245/543 seats, ie 45%; however, it managed to win just 38 seats here, ie 16% success rate

Please be noted 245 includes TL(17), JH(14) and ND(7) where INC was no2 but I am doubtful if it will be so if elections are held now

Breakup of 245 below👇
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Of 27 States/UT in Category A, INC drew a blank in 15 of them. Only 2 States, PJ and KL contributed 23 of 38 seats. Balance 15 came from 10 States/UT and it did not cross 3 seats in any of them

Pl note INC strongholds(!) are distributed across country but with very little heft+
Also note, in none of the States/UT, total seats exceeded 30. This implies that INC has no presence in big states and so, has to spend more energy and resources to even stay afloat; INC's presence in many States (27/37) is not electorally rewarding +
Please also note that 27 States/UT where INC is no1 or no2 add upto only 245 seats (45%);

10 States/UT with 298 seats (55%) fall in Category B and C

Breakup as follows :+
What you should notice from tables pertaining to Category B and C is that only 7 States (of 10 States/UT) contribute 295 seats to LS and INC is not a primary party (no1 or no2) in these States

Only 5 States (Big 5)-UP,MH,WB,BH,TN- contribute 249 seats (48%) to LS of 543 seats👇+
BJP is primary party in four of the Big 5 and won 120 seats (of 303) by itself in them. Alongwith its allies, BJP won 163 seats ie., 46% of NDA's tally

INC won only 11 seats in Big 5; and 8 came from TN alone; UPA won 43 seats in Big 5 of which 30 seats were from its allies +
Also note that INC is a direct competitor of BJP (in my assessment) in 159 seats over 14 States/UT

Of these 159 seats, INC could win only 9 seats in 2019 LS elections; BJP's % vote share exceeded INC's by 10% in 10 of these States/UTs

All these States/UT fall in Category A!
👇+
What are the lessons for 2024 LS elections ?

1 INC's Principal enemy remains BJP as INC is in direct conflict with BJP in all Category A States (where INC is no1 or no2)

2 Looking at INC's lukewarm presence in Category B or C States/UT, INC shd not fritter its energies there+
3 For Category B and C States, INC has to form alliance wherever feasible and be willing to play secondary or tertiary role in the alliance or better Stay Away

4 Non-BJP, non-INC parties hv to then take on BJP/NDA in the Big 5 and also in States of AP+TL all adding to 291 seats+
5 Effectively, the only way to take on BJP is for the non-NDA parties to come together and work out a clear-cut division of labour matrix amongst themselves - INC focussing on Category A States and non-INC, non-NDA parties in Category B and C

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6 So is there a need to rewire and restructure current UPA? I think so.

7 New entities have to incorporated into UPA - SS? TRS? YSRC? TDP? TMC? BJD? SP?

8 If above has to fructify, UPA's leadership cannot vest with INC any longer +
9 Is Sanjay Raut's suggestion of Sharad Pawar heading UPA worth considering? I think so!

10 Is that all enough to take on the BJP? Absolutely NO

11 These parties have to then develop a comprehensive political narrative and campaign to take on BJP in 2024 +
12 We have 3 more years to go for it but time is of essence; once May 2021 State elections are over, it is imperative that major parties meet and take stock of situation and prepare a road map

14 Hopefully, both DMK&TMC win in 2021 elections; that wd be big push for this plan
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Its time for Pawar, UT, Tejaswi, Akhilesh, MK Stalin, Mamta, YSR or CBN, Naveen to come out and join hands to save the nation

The analysis clearly shows that INC cannot take on the BJP juggernaut by itself and that all non-NDA parties have to join hands to save India

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Else 2024 may be the last democratic elections India will see before it becomes a full-fledged Hindu Rashtra.

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