BC POLITICS
Saved by @Alex1Powell

We need to talk about UK politics. More specifically we need to talk about the absence of opposition to a no-deal Brexit risking Scottish independence, Northern Irish peace, the end of the mass market car industry, more expensive food, and damaged relations with US and EU 1/n

 Project fear and the red wall. The first meaning that every serious threat, such as that of Nissan that their plant will be unsustainable, is dismissed with little discussion. The red wall, apparently so angry with Labour about the EU they are afraid to have a position. 2/
Because 'sovereignty' apparently. But a particularly nefarious form of sovereignty in which the normal kind of things you discuss in a Free Trade Agreement - shared rules, access to waters - become when discussed with the EU unacceptable infringements and threats. 3/
You note in the UK we aren't having a discussion on what level playing field rules or access to fishing waters might be acceptable. Or normal. Or even what we might want, like shared increased commitments on climate change. No, all rumours. Evil EU. Worse French. 4/
Those who follow closely see incredible briefings in the papers, like today claiming the EU demand for raising minimum shared standards was only raised on Thursday, treated as fact. This was known months ago. But the media too often just reports the spin as fact. 5/
Not one member of the Cabinet, knowing the disruption to come, the threat to the economy and international relations, is willing to publicly advocate a deal. Some have let it be known quietly they'd quite like one. But they're afraid of an EU-phobic Conservative Party. 6/
And let us be clear, government policy is being drived by an EU-phobia, not by a positive agenda. People who will always respond by blaming the EU, even when the question is what future they want for the UK. For whom hatred of the EU is their obsession. Reader, I asked them... 7/
The unwillingness to take the consequences of no-deal Brexit seriously is widespread. It stretches to diehard remainers almost hoping for huge disruption, and government ministers frantically crossing fingers. But none taking seriously a UK which loses international confidence 8/
For the worst that can happen is very bad indeed. It is the withdrawal of inward investment from international companies, loss of confidence in the UK as a lawful player, oss of political confidence of other major countries. Worst case. Low chance. Far from impossible. 9/
But we still don't talk about it. As we don't talk about how every other country in the world manages to do deals with neighbours, and those neighbours are not always easy countries to do business with, like China or the US. They have demands. As the EU does. 10/
No-deal is serious. Not some PM joke. Or remain campaign point. The US and EU are serious that the UK government is threatening the Good Friday Agreement. The Scots are serious no-deal means greater support for independence. Nissan are serious about leaving. 11/
It might be too late for the debate now. Positions of the EU (not covered in glory recently) and UK seem entrenched, domestic oponents of a deal emboldened, support for a deal shrivelling. But it doesn't end. Because the next pressure is to tear up the Withdrawal Agreement 12/
That worst case? That comes where the UK government follows no-deal by breaking the Northern Ireland protocol and WTO rules. Telling the US and EU they are wrong. Not worrying when the car companies leave because freeports. Then probably panic. With no counter voices. 13/
Maybe it won't happen. Maybe it is no-deal but the government tries to follow the Northern Ireland protocol, holds firm against the demands for a trade war with the EU, realises how damaging tariffs will be for UK producers. But we have to admit, we don't have confidence. 14/
The UK political debate has gone badly wrong. Abstract notions of sovereignty rule over real knowledge of international relations and international economics. That is costing us and will continue to do so. We need interventions and quickly, but from where who knows? 15/
We were warned. We joked @garvanwalshe was the Brexit cassandra. But so far his forecast from 2016 is the most accurate. There is time to change, time for politicians in particular to stand up for a more mature UK. And as they don't, the cost rises. 16/16 https://t.co/J4p0n1cEQs
PS someone on the inside getting worried and leaking? https://t.co/wIxBRce1JT
PPS I still haven't actually changed my long-standing fence-sitting position on UK-EU deal yes or no. I'll come off the fence when the PM does. There is no great technical difficulty to doing a deal. Politics and momentum are the problems, which I thought needed more focus.

More from David Henig

David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Morning. And its Groundhog Day today. https://t.co/gRs4Dc8RH2


Some useful threads will follow, first on the Northern Ireland protocol, where unfettered is still being defined...


And on fish and level playing field. The latter seems, has always seemed, the most problematic, because the UK has apparently ruled out any compromise on shared minumum levels even if not automatic. That would be a deal breaker, but seems... unnecessary.


Your reminder closing complex deals is never easy. But there are ways to facilitate and EU is good at doing this if you meet their red lines. But still the biggest concern that the UK never understood level playing field terms are fundamental to the EU.


In the UK, one man's decision. Allegedly backed by a Cabinet who in reality will be quite happy to blame the PM either way. The temptation to send Michael Gove to seal the deal and end his leadership ambitions must be there...
FOR LATER READ
David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
There is a sense of disbelief about the new trade problems between Great Britain and the EU / Northern Ireland. Which we need to lose. This is the new normal. And we face a difficult period of adjustment - immediate paperwork needs, and to longer term uncompetitiveness.

As we trade folk might have mentioned before, outside of the single market and the customs union of the EU, problems at borders are normal. Delays common. Great job of the Brexit supporters to find supposed experts claiming otherwise, but now back to reality...

Such delays at borders were in fact part of the origin of the single market, in the days when the Conservatives didn't see a contradiction between free markets and sovereignty. Such delays weren't really compatible with a supposed common market. So, the single market...

The delays and individual issues will ebb and flow. There will be new regulatory requirements in EU and UK affecting different products. But for UK and EU business as a whole it will mean UK-EU trade is more costly and less predictable, and there will be economic adjustment.

To put it bluntly, some UK firms will go out of business due to new border barriers. Some EU firms will stop supplying the UK, at a cost increase to UK consumers but a possible new opportunity for firms. This adjustment will take some time though.
EU
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David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Quick intro to more analysis later - since Freeports are mentioned in this article worth making the point that it seems to me under the UK-EU deal that if the UK provides subsidies for them, or relaxes labour or environmental rules in them, the EU can take retaliatory action.


There has never been level playing field content like this in a trade deal. The idea it is any kind of UK win, when the UK's opening position was no enforceable commitments whatsoever, is ridiculous.


The EU can take retaliatory action against the UK if we weaken labour standards, weaken pretty firm climate change targets, unfairly subsidise, or just in general seem to be out of line. There are processes to follow, but it looks like the PM did it again...


Final one for now. Quite how Labour gets itself in such a fuss about whether to support a deal with the strongest labour and environment commitments ever seen in a trade deal is a sign of just how far it hasn't moved on from leaving.

PS well... (sorry DAG). It certainly didn't have a good effect. And I think if we had settled LPF issues with the EU much earlier there is a good chance the conditions would have been far less stringent. By making an issue, we made it much worse.
BREXIT
David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
How to make sense of the increasing number of UK-EU trade disruption stories?

In short - outside of a single market product checks and people working restrictions are inevitable. And outside a customs union you will have tariffs and / or rules of origin.

Detail ---> 1/

The UK decided to leave a Customs Union. Within that Customs Union, no tariffs, just a common external tariff or preferential rates for bilateral deals or developing countries. Hence, distribution hubs in one country for all make a lot of sense. 2/

Outside a Customs Union our choice was tariffs under WTO rules or remove them subject to rules of origin with a deal. We chose the latter, but it means we can't just import from China, rebadge, and get zero tariffs from the EU. As we could until December 31. 3/

Net result of being outside of the Customs Union - it no longer makes sense for the UK to be a distribution hub for the whole of Europe. Particularly when so many neighbouring countries remain in it. No trade deal changes that. 4/

Now, product checks, of the sort causing problems for food exporters (see Scottish seafood). In the single market, we shared regulations, so a safe product in the UK was safe in France. No inspections. We chose to leave that system, as we want to change some regulations. 5/
BREXIT
David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
"Fail to prepare, prepare to fail" has gone from being an irritating statement trotted out on a training course to a description of the UK government's modus operandi. And as well as on covid restrictions we're seeing it in EU negotiations - deal or no-deal. And here's why... 1/

The UK's goal in EU negotiations is to declare victory / sovereignty. Sounds good. But the problem is that there will always be winners and losers in a big trade deal, because it covers everything and involves compromising with the other side. An immediate problem. 2/

Take fish, on which apparently talks are stuck. No deal means we regain full control of our waters. Victory! And sell the fish where? EU tariffs and checks. Not victory. So share waters? But then, defeat! Point being, if you don't explain, the result will disappoint. 3/

We don't want the EU setting our rules and regulations. So minimal sovereignty provisions. No-deal and victory! But then what about the car manufacturers no longer viable? Ok, compromise. But then no win on sovereignty, or perhaps call it "freedom clauses"... 4/

Northern Ireland, customs checks, rules of origin, security cooperation and so on... all inevitably to require compromise. But if your game was all about victory and sovereignty, then what? Not make a decision perhaps? 5/
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Jennifer Cohn \u270d\U0001f3fb \U0001f4e2
Jennifer Cohn ✍🏻 📢...
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Rs made gains in state legislatures in 2020. Even where manual audits are conducted, they rarely include state races. 😢

“Ds spent big to take control of state legislatures but lost their key targets. Now they’ll be on the sidelines as new maps are drawn”

I reported on the sorry state of election auditing laws in the US in this pre-election piece for @NYRDaily. This must change. #RobustManualAuditsNOW
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Pirate croco
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Ok as a French Muslim, i think, i must to explain to EVERYONE what’s this exactly about the “Halal” ban slaughter (1/8)

Recently, many have seen some tweets saying that the slaughter of animals with the "halal" ritual will be banned in France. (2/8)

But, unfortunately, this is the problem of the networks, no one will go digging to know more, laziness trivialized in these modern times surely. (3/8)

Know what you must to know it’s they banned only those who use the electronarcosis then they slaughter the animal with the halal ritual.
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