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Morning. And its Groundhog Day today. https://t.co/gRs4Dc8RH2

 Some useful threads will follow, first on the Northern Ireland protocol, where unfettered is still being defined... https://t.co/YHPJdNC4mf
And on fish and level playing field. The latter seems, has always seemed, the most problematic, because the UK has apparently ruled out any compromise on shared minumum levels even if not automatic. That would be a deal breaker, but seems... unnecessary. https://t.co/PCtI1olTOV
Your reminder closing complex deals is never easy. But there are ways to facilitate and EU is good at doing this if you meet their red lines. But still the biggest concern that the UK never understood level playing field terms are fundamental to the EU. https://t.co/WkQHyvMzMt
In the UK, one man's decision. Allegedly backed by a Cabinet who in reality will be quite happy to blame the PM either way. The temptation to send Michael Gove to seal the deal and end his leadership ambitions must be there... https://t.co/T12k9zpVpw
As it happens... https://t.co/dOeSREAAYg
For what it's worth it seems likely that there was some kite flying last night to see what the reaction to a deal might be on the UK side. It... didn't go well. Which is the fear of those on the EU side - that Johnson has talked up sovereignty too far for reasonable compromise.
I might be on some media or other later today talking about my favourite christmas reci.... if only. Depending on how many updates there have been since I might be optimistic or pessimistic, but still on the fence. https://t.co/YVb4oBZLke
Oh yes, 24 days left to the biggest one day change in UK trading terms in history. Just the £2 billion of trade per day at stake. https://t.co/NEdPJzysvZ
Picture for those who were missing their Brexit flowcharts. From what I can see (and Jon also suggests) today has the right elements for final deal choreography with Gove in Brussels, and quite possibly also therefore a no-deal announcement. https://t.co/KunRWGig4x
Has always been my belief. Though rather raises the issue of only listening to those who won't challenge your views. https://t.co/KdM68PKsif
Right. If today ends with a statement saying the PM and vdL are going to make another last effort to reach a deal after all of this I think the Brexit watchers finally have to stage an intervention. https://t.co/aUIhkJbVMA
Fundamentally UK politics (on all sides, but differently) cannot reconcile leaving the EU but still being in Europe. Listen to Norwegian, Swiss, or Turkish officials. A horrible experience, they say, when you always want to leave the table but can't. https://t.co/U92sZcHKZy
I think we can safely dismiss any Barnier statement on deadlines given the record to date. We're long past the point any agreement can receive proper scrutiny or business be ready to implement it. https://t.co/ai4F7qd53y
UK-EU talks Wednesday deadline latest https://t.co/H2nNksRgTc
On this at least the UK and EU are united, against their own businesses. Nobody, it is clear, is in any kind of hurry.

Because, hey, there are still 16 working days until huge new barriers are erected to the world's second largest trading relationship.

https://t.co/WPX9uOUNiE
The problem again - EU and UK will have to upset some of their domestic constituencies to get a deal. Neither seem prepared to do so. But neither want to walk away either. Stalemate. https://t.co/mSewDGwJRR

More from David Henig

David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
How to make sense of the increasing number of UK-EU trade disruption stories?

In short - outside of a single market product checks and people working restrictions are inevitable. And outside a customs union you will have tariffs and / or rules of origin.

Detail ---> 1/

The UK decided to leave a Customs Union. Within that Customs Union, no tariffs, just a common external tariff or preferential rates for bilateral deals or developing countries. Hence, distribution hubs in one country for all make a lot of sense. 2/

Outside a Customs Union our choice was tariffs under WTO rules or remove them subject to rules of origin with a deal. We chose the latter, but it means we can't just import from China, rebadge, and get zero tariffs from the EU. As we could until December 31. 3/

Net result of being outside of the Customs Union - it no longer makes sense for the UK to be a distribution hub for the whole of Europe. Particularly when so many neighbouring countries remain in it. No trade deal changes that. 4/

Now, product checks, of the sort causing problems for food exporters (see Scottish seafood). In the single market, we shared regulations, so a safe product in the UK was safe in France. No inspections. We chose to leave that system, as we want to change some regulations. 5/
BREXIT
David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Today's UK-EU trade deal reflection - what is rarely stated in discussions about the deal's shortcomings is that they reflect UK government policy choices - in particular that control of immigration and a US trade deal are a higher priority than an EU deal.

Thus, why was it not a UK government priority to secure for UK musicians the rights to tour the EU? Because that would probably have required a reciprocal right to be given to those in the EU, which we didn't want to give. Choice.

Meanwhile why did the UK government not seek or secure a reduction in food inspections for GB products going to the EU? Because that would probably have required fixing food regulations in a way that might have been an obstacle to a US trade deal.

Works the other way as well. Why did the EU refuse UK requests on mutual recognition of industrial testing? In part at least because of UK lack of commitment on maintaining the previous EU system of standards and conformity assessment which might be a problem in a US deal.

One of the strangest opinions in the London politics bubble is that the UK government isn't that bothered about a US trade deal, as it so obviously goes against the evidence. There might be domestic opposition, but this was to be Brexit Dividend Number 1.
BREXIT
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David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
There is a sense of disbelief about the new trade problems between Great Britain and the EU / Northern Ireland. Which we need to lose. This is the new normal. And we face a difficult period of adjustment - immediate paperwork needs, and to longer term uncompetitiveness.

As we trade folk might have mentioned before, outside of the single market and the customs union of the EU, problems at borders are normal. Delays common. Great job of the Brexit supporters to find supposed experts claiming otherwise, but now back to reality...

Such delays at borders were in fact part of the origin of the single market, in the days when the Conservatives didn't see a contradiction between free markets and sovereignty. Such delays weren't really compatible with a supposed common market. So, the single market...

The delays and individual issues will ebb and flow. There will be new regulatory requirements in EU and UK affecting different products. But for UK and EU business as a whole it will mean UK-EU trade is more costly and less predictable, and there will be economic adjustment.

To put it bluntly, some UK firms will go out of business due to new border barriers. Some EU firms will stop supplying the UK, at a cost increase to UK consumers but a possible new opportunity for firms. This adjustment will take some time though.
EU
David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
The first working day of the new UK-EU relationship. We're going to hear a lot this year from all sides (remain and Brexit in UK, EU, etc) using any possible scrap of evidence. But what we need to look for is trends, over time, so a few to think about in this thread... 1/

Obvious disruption or reduction to UK-EU trade flow. Here we may be thinking e.g. of a permanent 10% fall in traffic, or regular queues, or indeed no change. And apart from goods, the same with individual travel, for work, residence etc... 2/

As a reminder we're not expecting permanent scenes like those of the week before Christmas when borders were closed. But 5-10% reductions in UK-EU traffic would not seem to be out of line with economic forecasts of a hit to the UK economy. 3/

Then we'll need to look at whether UK-EU trade is being substituted by UK-non EU trade. This probably should happen to a degree, and in theory efficiencies could come this way. But its also possible that all UK trade falls, with the UK no longer an EU entry point. 4/

Inward investment is another key post-Brexit indicator. There isn't a single obvious data set here, but the impression of the last four years has been a fall off in manufacturing, but not in services, particularly tech. Continuation would suggest economy tilting to services. 5/
BREXIT
David Henig
David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
This potential benefit list from CPTPP is not the longest and is still misleading. Those Malaysian whisky tariffs - emilimated over 15 years (if they don't seek any specific exemption for UK). Those rules of origin benefits? Only apply to import / export to CPTPP countries. https://t.co/9TbheOVhsR


Here's my more realistic take on CPTPP. Economic gains limited, but politically in terms of trade this makes some sort of sense, these are likely allies. DIT doesn't say this, presumably the idea of Australia or Canada as our equal upsets them.


As previously noted agriculture interests in Australia and New Zealand expect us to reach generous agreements in WTO talks and bilaterals before acceding to CPTPP. So this isn't a definite. Oh and Australia wants to know if we'll allow hormone treated beef

Ultimately trade deals are political, and the UK really wants CPTPP as part of the pivot to indo-pacific, and some adherents also hope it forces us to change food laws without having to do it in a US deal (isn't certain if this is the case or not).

If we can accede to CPTPP without having to make changes to domestic laws it is fine. Just shouldn't be our priority, as it does little for services, is geographically remote, and hardly cutting edge on issues like climate change or animal welfare.
SOCIETY

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People! Have you seen people being rude to each other during meetings, maybe directed at women/people of colour/disabled people/LGBTQ+ people? Do you want to help prevent this abuse?

Some tips you can consider as a bystander depending on the situation (thread)

Have a code of conduct and circulate it. Make it clear that abusive behaviour will not be accepted. Build in accountability strategies (what happens if someone violates it). Have a moderator/chair to observe the dynamics of your group.

This kind of behaviour is very normalised and insidious, so train yourself to spot it. Is there somebody that usually interrupts? Is there somebody that usually gets interrupted and silenced? Are there signs of aggressive communication?

Not everyone might like that you jump at their defense - your heart might be in the right place but it can come across as patronising. Try to bring up the subject with your colleagues and see what they think. Foster a culture of positive communication.

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BRAHMA VAIVARTA PURAN: IMPORTANCE AND CHARACTERISTICS.

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Listening to this Puran one gets automatically attached to Vishnu and Shiva and realize that there is no difference between them. Vyasji divided this book into four parts. It has eighteen thousand shlokas. This whole book is in the form of dialogue between Suutji and Maharishi's.

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Next is Prakriti khand which consists of dialogue between Narad and Saavarni where they discuss the

Importance of Shri Krishna through various stories. Then there is the discussion of Prakriti and its various hues. Listening to this gets you wealth.
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Andy McCabe has some explaining to do.


Andrew McCabe was reported to the FBI’s Office of Public Affairs for making an unauthorized leak of classified info to the media about @GenFlynn in early February 2017.

If you’ve wondered exactly who it was who leaked the classified info from that intelligence report on @GenFlynn’s phone calls with then-Russian ambassador Kislyak to the media, you are right now seeing a huge honking clue who it was.

To those responding to this info by sneering "Nothing's gonna happen":

Up.

Your.

Game.

You just might be too stupid to be following me.

The then-Deputy Director of the FBI get's caught targeting @GenFlynn with an illegal leak so he can 'investigated' by Peter Strzok?

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Shocking fact: Millennial men are less likely to work than any other age and gender demographic in America.

Today, there are 500,000 young men missing from the U.S. workforce.

Research suggests video games & improved leisure tech plays a role in the problem. 👇 Thread:

Following the 2007 to 2009 recession, 25 to 34 year old men exited high school with fewer middle-skill job opportunities than years prior.

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Economists are calling millennial men a lost generation.

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Forbes interview w/ a high school educated man:

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Now Suniti was the daughter of a tribal chief while Suruchi was the daughter of a rich king. Hence Suruchi was always favored the most by Raja while Suniti was ignored. But while Suniti was gentle & kind hearted by nature Suruchi was venomous inside.
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The story is of a time when ideally the eldest son of the king becomes the heir to the throne. Hence the sinhasan of the Raja belonged to Dhruva.This is why Suruchi who was the 2nd wife nourished poison in her heart for Dhruva as she knew her son will never get the throne.


One day when Dhruva was just 5 years old he went on to sit on his father's lap. Suruchi, the jealous queen, got enraged and shoved him away from Raja as she never wanted Raja to shower Dhruva with his fatherly affection.


Dhruva protested questioning his step mother "why can't i sit on my own father's lap?" A furious Suruchi berated him saying "only God can allow him that privilege. Go ask him"
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