BC POLITICS
Saved by @rudrajitkumar1

Next week is shaping up to be one hell of a week in 🇬🇧 politics

It all revolves around parliamentary sovereignty, Tory party shenanigans, and Johnson's need to survive and if that contradicts with doing the right thing

Bear with me - this is messy but important

1/12

 Why will it be hellish?

We *know* that there will be a vote on Coronavirus Tier system on Tue 1 Dec, with the system to come into force from the end of 2 Dec

There *might* be a Brexit Deal at the start of next week as well, and Johnson having to OK it or not

2/12
Coronavirus first

I am not well placed to judge whether the Tier system is right (don't @ - reply me about that), but it's enough to say there are 3 grounds for critique
- do lockdowns work?
- does THIS lockdown system work?
- has my town/region been harshly treated?

3/12
Those are enough grounds for plenty of parliamentary opposition on the Tory benches, and on opposition benches too.

Labour could easily justify voting against in that some of the judgments on Tiers are not strictly based on the science

But what does voting *against* mean?

4/12
Were the vote lost, there would be little or no actual practical consequence regarding the Coronavirus restrictions - as discussed with Adam Wagner the government would almost certainly table Regulations using its emergency powers instead

5/12

https://t.co/Djlx8oQH5r
Backbenchers would then sit down with Ministers to work out what system would be appropriate, and a further vote would presumably then happen some days later

But that makes Tuesday's vote - above all - an opportunity to give Johnson a bloody nose. It's a free hit

6/12
And then... possible BREXIT DEAL! 🙄

In the middle of a very political & symbolic fight over Corona restrictions. And like on Corona, Tory backbench power to stop a Deal happening is low - not least because Labour will abstain or even back a Deal. The damage is political.

7/12
Or - putting it another way - just at the moment Johnson would need his backbenchers to be at their most docile and not make a fuss about a Brexit Deal (presuming Johnson were to want that), those same backbenchers are going to be fuming over the Corona Tiers

8/12
There are no nice ways out here. The question is whether Johnson can risk loosing so much political capital in a week.

If Johnson were to cede to backbenchers on Corona now - e.g. loosening or reallocating Tiers - Labour wallops him for being anti-science. Not handy.

9/12
If Johnson cedes anything to the EU in the Brexit negotiations his backbenchers wallop him for not being able to deliver the 🦄 they think they are getting.

Ceding on Corona might help him get more backing for a Brexit Deal.

10/12
A hard (No Deal) line, or further absence of decision on Brexit, might help him on Coronavirus.

But getting his Corona Tiers approved, *and* getting a Deal acceptable to the Tory backbenches, is going to leave Johnson looking politically heavily battered.

11/12
If Johnson's prime motivation is his own survival - rather than the actual health or the economic health of the country - what does he do?

It's not a simple choice!

12/12
P.S. There is some discussion about whether the date / time for the end of the national lockdown in tweet 2 is correct - see this for example https://t.co/x8LvxZcz8W
This does not change the essence of my argument here though!

More from Jon Worth

Jon Worth
Jon Worth
@jonworth
To those saying that those who have got their public health advice wrong earlier in the pandemic should put up their hands and apologise... a little cautionary lesson from another sector

A short 🧵

1/

Public health is not my thing

But Brexit is

And throughout 2019 and 2020 I have been trying to make predictions as to what will happen in that story. Lives do not depend on this, only my professional reputation (marginally) does

2/12

The three series of #BrexitDiagram I made in 2019 were extraordinarily accurate

Series 1/2
https://t.co/wOSzIXxJ2M

Series 3
https://t.co/E4fKeGoa5n

Series 4
https://t.co/yRsQ8mLGj1

Each series got that stage of Brexit right

3/12

The 2020 series was nowhere near as good - at one stage I had No Deal Brexit at 78% chance in early December - and that was not what

I own this error - I was wrong

I know *why* I was wrong - I thought the European Parliament would fight more on Provisional Application, and I thought agreeing everything in a week wouldn't work. I wasn't right

The Manston crisis / borders closing changed something too

5/12
HEALTH
Jon Worth
Jon Worth
@jonworth
A quick thread about night trains

The transport ministers from 🇩🇪🇦🇹🇫🇷🇨🇭, and the CEOs of the state-owned 🚅 operators in each (DB, ÖBB, SNCF, SBB), held a press conference about night trains today...

This slide summarises what they'd agreed


Don't get me wrong: night trains are *good*, and the trains on these routes will be ÖBB NightJet services, and ÖBB runs the best night trains there are in Europe.

I personally will be very happy to take these trains.

But so much for the good news.

Most of these routes have *already* been announced (Zürich to BCN, Rome, Amsterdam) - see https://t.co/7JnAo74tIX

Or have been even trialled (Vienna-Brussels) - see

That means only really the parts of the trains going to Paris and Berlin are in some way new - and even then we don't know how this will work (old Berlin-Paris night train went *through* Brussels)

In short: we're talking today about something like 4-6 new train services a day

In comparison: DB has 400 ICE units, SNCF 600 TGVs.

All of this is a *drop in the ocean*.
NIGHT TRAINS
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Jon Worth
Jon Worth
@jonworth
"Red wall voters will not forgive Boris Johnson if he sells out to get a trade deal with Brussels, polls show"

It's in The Sun. Harry Cole wrote it...

So let's dig a

The poll was done by @SavantaComRes and the PDF of the results is here:

P. 57
If this 'no deal' scenario occurs, to what extent would you be
more or less likely to vote Conservative at the next General Election?

+ likely, total: 20%
no difference: 41%
- likely, total: 32%

P. 59

I don't actually know what these questions mean

"The UK establishes a new relationship with the EU that is based on EU law" What *is* that?


"The UK maintains political alignment with the EU after the Brexit Transition Period, such as a common foreign and security policy" What is political alignment? And does CFSP work?

"The UK cannot pass its own laws and ensure its courts enforce them" Oh come on.
POLITICS
Jon Worth
Jon Worth
@jonworth
First they came for the 🐟

And John Redwood said the 🇬🇧 fishing industry would adjust

Then they came for the 🐖 farmers and 🐷 exports

And they said don't worry, it's just teething problems

Next they came for the 🦪 exporters

And there the Minister wrote a letter saying 🇪🇺 was wrong, when his officials knew 🇪🇺 was right

Then the 🧪 industries worried about the 💷 of making a new database to replace REACH

They're still waiting

The 🚛🚚 operators fear that a load of vehicles are returning to 🇪🇺 empty, and volumes are down

We do not recognise the numbers, the 🇬🇧 Government says
FINANCE
Jon Worth
Jon Worth
@jonworth
OK, so it's a fortnight away - the "Digital Party Conference" of the CDU to decide who the next party leader will be

And whoever wins this is going to have a good chance of being Chancellor, succeeding Merkel after the election in September this year

There are three main candidates in the running - all middle aged men from Nordrhein Westfalen
- Friedrich Merz
- Armin Laschet
- Norbert Röttgen

So who's going to win?

For ages it looked like Laschet was the clear front runner. Prime Minister of Nordrhein Westfalen (NRW), and with a kind of folksy-beergarten manner, it looked good for him.

But then came COVID, and in the first wave it looked like NRW was pushing to open up too early, and questions started to be raised as to whether he would be up to the job...

Laschet's star is falling

The candidate profiting is Merz. The comeback kid at 65 years of age would take the CDU more to the right - which seems to be what a slew of the 1001 delegates (esp those from the states of eastern Germany) want. That despite the pragmatic line of Merkel being +popular than ever.
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Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Alexandria Ocasio-Cort...
@Ocasio2018
All the challenges to Leader Pelosi are coming from her right, in an apparent effort to make the party even more conservative and bent toward corporate interests.

Hard pass. So long as Leader Pelosi remains the most progressive candidate for Speaker, she can count on my support.


I agree that our party should, and must, evolve our leadership.

But changed leadership should reflect an actual, evolved mission; namely, an increased commitment to the middle + working class electorate that put us here.

Otherwise it’s a just new figure with the same problems.

I hope that we can move swiftly to conclude this discussion about party positions, so that we can spend more time discussing party priorities: voting rights, healthcare, wages, climate change, housing, cannabis legalization, good jobs, etc.
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Matt Fuller
Matt Fuller
@MEPFuller
They’re shooting into the chamber.
POLITICS
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Faisal Islam
Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
NEW - on @skynews shortly:
Reliable source tells me Withdrawal Deal text contains

- No unilateral exit from backstop

- Large annexe on level playing field

.... after reporting this on @SkyNews I get a call from a different senior source that this is “spot on” and further that the Attorney General Geoffrey Cox has not pulled his punches in confirming in legal advice there is “no unilateral exit” from backstop ...

... furthermore I’m told (and this chimes with excellent Times splash this morning re Weyand) that the future partnership then takes its starting point as the activated backstop - ie UK-wide customs union-style arrangement and level playing field.

Understand that a ministerial briefing on the draft Withdrawal Agreement meant to drum up support from some trade organisations due tonight has now been postponed
POLITICS
Cassandra of Troy
Cassandra of Troy
@BrynnTannehill
This letter is... something. But, it illustrates two points. First, most Americans don't realize that the majority of of the GOP base thinks this is a religious war for the soul of the nation. They're willing to abandon democracy FTW. 1/n


The other illuminating part is where they insist Trump is a Christian. I agree with @C_Stroop the "real" vs. "fake" Christian debate is unhelpful. However, if someone thinks religion is "b******t", they're not Christian regardless of how you define it 2/n

It always amazes me how strong the cult of personality is. They're completely willing to rearrange their beliefs to support Trump (grab 'em by the pussy). They're willing to ignore the evidence he regards them as rubes, suckers, and morons. 3/n

Of all the awful things he's done, bilking his followers with fake raffles somehow stuck with me as just about the sleaziest. He's already rich. Even Rand Paul, Hannity, Carlson, Cruz, Cotton, and Hawley don't stoop this low. 4/n

On February 26th last year, I predicted that the US would handle the pandemic poorly for a lot of reasons: poor scientific literacy, bad employers, poor laws against endangering employees, lack of hospital beds, lack of preparedness. But, I whiffed badly on one thing... 5/n
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Lea Kissner
Lea Kissner
@LeaKissner
Last talk about Securing Democracy at #enigma2021: @jackhcable speaking about "THE FULL STACK PROBLEM OF ELECTION

Let's imagine that elections use all the security measures security people have been advocating: risk-limiting audits, paper ballots, etc. Would people trust the elections more?

Jack would argue no. Most people don't understand this stuff and most of the claims people are making can't be disproven. And are massively bogus already.

Georgia did a full recount on paper ballots and it very much didn't stop people from doubting the election!

Are election security results in vain? The point of election security is to convince the loser they lost.

No! Have to focus on the whole stack, from election infrastructure to campaigns to people and mis/dis-informaton


One takeaway from the talk: the parts of the stack must work in tandem. Can't fight misinformation in a vacuum, but must build on other election security measures.
POLITICS

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