He won because his opponent’s turnout was pushed down by a full-court press that tapped everything from misogyny to poll tampering.
2/
I’m just going to lay this down now so it’s on record:
Trump’s campaign has used the exact same strategy it used in 2016: smear his opponent; attempt to demotivate their base; and actively attempt to prevent or obstruct them from voting.
It is a push-down strategy.
1/
Striking finding from NYT/Siena: Biden has big leads among those who didn't vote in 2016. And they make up non-trivial portions of the electorate.
— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) November 1, 2020
Here are Biden's leads, followed by their vote share:
WI +19 (11%)
FL +17 (18%)
PA +12 (18%)
AZ +7 (22%)
It's a new electorate.
He won because his opponent’s turnout was pushed down by a full-court press that tapped everything from misogyny to poll tampering.
2/
But it isn’t working because:
1) We now understand it
2) Many who were effectively suppressed last time have had four years to see what that cost
3) Biden isn’t susceptible to the same illegitimate biases
3/
The media, pundits and analysts never fully reckoned with the extent to which Hillary’s vote was just suppressed.
4/
Trump only won by smothering just enough of his opponent’s support.
Some of the voters who that succeeded with in 2016 are vehemently un-smotherable this time.
5/
Trump is a one-trick pony: depress the other guy’s votes. It worked in 2016. The whole system helped.
The media loves to hate Hillary too much to fully admit that.
6/
Trump is going to lose. It isn’t going to be a nail-biter.
And the post mortems will go right on missing the fact that Trump never, ever held the backing of enough ppl to win.
7/
It was always right there to see.
8/
It is right there to see.
9/
His support is no different.
It wasn’t enough then. It isn’t enough now.
It took a perfect storm in 2016.
Now he can’t even rustle the drapes.
And that was always right there to see.
But boring races don’t sell ad space.
10/10
Right. There. To. See. https://t.co/oI4mBi0FpU
Per my average of polls going back to 1948, Trump has set a new record as the first incumbent president to poll below 47% of the national two-party vote every day since June 1st of the election cycle.
— G. Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) November 1, 2020
More from The Hoarse Whisperer
This is the most significant window into Trump’s psychology since the election.
He is so gravely wounded by his loss, even the usual protections a narcissist employs aren’t saving him.
1/
The pattern for Trump has always been the exact same without deviation.
When faced with a public humiliation, he 1) broods; 2) scapegoats; 3) adopts a face-saving excuse; and 4) gets back on his feet.
He isn’t reaching #4.
2/
It is remarkable and striking.
He is so debilitated by the public humiliation of having lost, he can’t even function in the dysfunctional way he used to...
Normally, he’d be posturing about how his loss was actually somehow a win for him. He’d be claiming he benefitted.
3/
He would have fully adopted a narrative about what happened *in the past* and would be talking about how great things were for him *in the present and future*.
Instead, he is a month into a spiral he can’t pull himself out of where he is still trying to change the outcome.
4/
I thought a trip to Mar a Lago would pull him out of that.
He’d be surrounded by people who looked at him adoringly and nodded at his nonsense with love and reverence.
He’d see that his facade of specialness was still intact *there at least*.
5/
He is so gravely wounded by his loss, even the usual protections a narcissist employs aren’t saving him.
1/
Trump is flying back from Mar-a-Lago today to the White House. He usually stays through the holiday. He will miss the New Year festivities at his precious club. The White House did not provide a reason for this early departure. So...watch out.
— David Corn (@DavidCornDC) December 31, 2020
The pattern for Trump has always been the exact same without deviation.
When faced with a public humiliation, he 1) broods; 2) scapegoats; 3) adopts a face-saving excuse; and 4) gets back on his feet.
He isn’t reaching #4.
2/
It is remarkable and striking.
He is so debilitated by the public humiliation of having lost, he can’t even function in the dysfunctional way he used to...
Normally, he’d be posturing about how his loss was actually somehow a win for him. He’d be claiming he benefitted.
3/
He would have fully adopted a narrative about what happened *in the past* and would be talking about how great things were for him *in the present and future*.
Instead, he is a month into a spiral he can’t pull himself out of where he is still trying to change the outcome.
4/
I thought a trip to Mar a Lago would pull him out of that.
He’d be surrounded by people who looked at him adoringly and nodded at his nonsense with love and reverence.
He’d see that his facade of specialness was still intact *there at least*.
5/
So, in Trump’s narcissistic cycle, there is a predictable sequence of phases that play out whenever he is facing a public humiliation.
1) Double Down Donnie
2) Loco Lawn Sprinkler
3) Sad and Silent
4) Hunting for Scapegoats
5) Riding the Excuse Train
1/
Whenever Trump is facing a public embarrassment he sees coming, he first doubles down on all of the stupid shit that put him in that hole to begin with. He has no other tools.
Then he frantically spins like a lawn sprinkler desperately spraying unhinged nonsense.
2/
The worse the pending embarrassment, the more unhinged the nutbaggery out of his mouth.
See: the past week.
It has been just a firehose of industrial-grade batshit.
3/
Then, when the embarrassment arrives, he gets quiet and sullen like a chastised little boy and runs off to cocoon.
Listen to the clips from the thread in the first post. Talking about his presidency in a tired, dejected past tense.
No aggression. No real fight left.
4/
Trump entirely disregulates as the embarrassment train is bearing down. He seems out of control because he is. No control over himself. An overtired toddler x1,000.
Then the train passes the point of avoidance though and Trump shrinks into a sad ball (albeit briefly).
5/
1) Double Down Donnie
2) Loco Lawn Sprinkler
3) Sad and Silent
4) Hunting for Scapegoats
5) Riding the Excuse Train
1/
Trump will soon be joining Fox & Friends, only about 6 hours after his last Election Day-eve rally ended pic.twitter.com/EAhGEGO1m1
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) November 3, 2020
Whenever Trump is facing a public embarrassment he sees coming, he first doubles down on all of the stupid shit that put him in that hole to begin with. He has no other tools.
Then he frantically spins like a lawn sprinkler desperately spraying unhinged nonsense.
2/
The worse the pending embarrassment, the more unhinged the nutbaggery out of his mouth.
See: the past week.
It has been just a firehose of industrial-grade batshit.
3/
Then, when the embarrassment arrives, he gets quiet and sullen like a chastised little boy and runs off to cocoon.
Listen to the clips from the thread in the first post. Talking about his presidency in a tired, dejected past tense.
No aggression. No real fight left.
4/
Trump entirely disregulates as the embarrassment train is bearing down. He seems out of control because he is. No control over himself. An overtired toddler x1,000.
Then the train passes the point of avoidance though and Trump shrinks into a sad ball (albeit briefly).
5/
I read up on the last several men the federal government rushed to put to death this past month.
Sister Helen is 100% right. None of the defendants would have come anywhere near a death penalty had they had money and privilege.
1/
Take the person executed last night: Dustin Higgs.
Higgs, another man and a woman were involved in the murder of two people. The trio had picked the victims up and taken them to a desolate area where they were shot.
2/
The reasons for the shooting were unclear. To make their case, prosecutors offered a deal to Higgs’ two associates: testify that Higgs had orchestrated the killing and they would be charged with lesser offenses.
So, the two did.
3/
The man testified that he had actually been the shooter and had murdered the two women - but had been told to do so by Higgs.
The actual murderer avoided the death penalty. The other associate got a lighter sentence.
4/
I entirely 1,000% believe that prosecutors would have never even pursued the death penalty had Higgs had intimidating counsel.
Epstein got a walk for a boatload of crimes, in part, because prosecutors were intimidated of the fight they’d face.
5/
Sister Helen is 100% right. None of the defendants would have come anywhere near a death penalty had they had money and privilege.
1/
The death penalty is fundamentally a poor person\u2019s issue. Over nearly 40 years of visiting death row facilities across the United States, I have never met a single person with money or resources. Capital punishment means \u201cthose without the capital get the punishment.\u201d
— Sister Helen Prejean (@helenprejean) January 16, 2021
Take the person executed last night: Dustin Higgs.
Higgs, another man and a woman were involved in the murder of two people. The trio had picked the victims up and taken them to a desolate area where they were shot.
2/
The reasons for the shooting were unclear. To make their case, prosecutors offered a deal to Higgs’ two associates: testify that Higgs had orchestrated the killing and they would be charged with lesser offenses.
So, the two did.
3/
The man testified that he had actually been the shooter and had murdered the two women - but had been told to do so by Higgs.
The actual murderer avoided the death penalty. The other associate got a lighter sentence.
4/
I entirely 1,000% believe that prosecutors would have never even pursued the death penalty had Higgs had intimidating counsel.
Epstein got a walk for a boatload of crimes, in part, because prosecutors were intimidated of the fight they’d face.
5/
More from Politics
1/Politics thread time.
To me, the most important aspect of the 2018 midterms wasn't even about partisan control, but about democracy and voting rights. That's the real battle.
2/The good news: It's now an issue that everyone's talking about, and that everyone cares about.
3/More good news: Florida's proposition to give felons voting rights won. But it didn't just win - it won with substantial support from Republican voters.
That suggests there is still SOME grassroots support for democracy that transcends
4/Yet more good news: Michigan made it easier to vote. Again, by plebiscite, showing broad support for voting rights as an
5/OK, now the bad news.
We seem to have accepted electoral dysfunction in Florida as a permanent thing. The 2000 election has never really
To me, the most important aspect of the 2018 midterms wasn't even about partisan control, but about democracy and voting rights. That's the real battle.
2/The good news: It's now an issue that everyone's talking about, and that everyone cares about.
3/More good news: Florida's proposition to give felons voting rights won. But it didn't just win - it won with substantial support from Republican voters.
That suggests there is still SOME grassroots support for democracy that transcends
4/Yet more good news: Michigan made it easier to vote. Again, by plebiscite, showing broad support for voting rights as an
5/OK, now the bad news.
We seem to have accepted electoral dysfunction in Florida as a permanent thing. The 2000 election has never really
Bad ballot design led to a lot of undervotes for Bill Nelson in Broward Co., possibly even enough to cost him his Senate seat. They do appear to be real undervotes, though, instead of tabulation errors. He doesn't really seem to have a path to victory. https://t.co/utUhY2KTaR
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 16, 2018
My piece in the NY Times today: "the Trump administration is denying applications submitted to the United States Citizenship and Immigration Services at a rate 37 percent higher than the Obama administration did in 2016."
Based on this analysis: "Denials for immigration benefits—travel documents, work permits, green cards, worker petitions, etc.—increased 37 percent since FY 2016. On an absolute basis, FY 2018 will see more than about 155,000 more denials than FY 2016." https://t.co/Bl0naOO0sh
"This increase in denials cannot be credited to an overall rise in applications. In fact, the total number of applications so far this year is 2 percent lower than in 2016. It could be that the higher denial rate is also discouraging some people from applying at all.."
Thanks to @gsiskind for his insightful comments. The increase in denials, he said, is “significant enough to make one think that Congress must have passed legislation changing the requirements. But we know they have not.”
My conclusion:
Based on this analysis: "Denials for immigration benefits—travel documents, work permits, green cards, worker petitions, etc.—increased 37 percent since FY 2016. On an absolute basis, FY 2018 will see more than about 155,000 more denials than FY 2016." https://t.co/Bl0naOO0sh
"This increase in denials cannot be credited to an overall rise in applications. In fact, the total number of applications so far this year is 2 percent lower than in 2016. It could be that the higher denial rate is also discouraging some people from applying at all.."
Thanks to @gsiskind for his insightful comments. The increase in denials, he said, is “significant enough to make one think that Congress must have passed legislation changing the requirements. But we know they have not.”
My conclusion:
You May Also Like
Following @BAUDEGS I have experienced hateful and propagandist tweets time after time. I have been shocked that an academic community would be so reckless with their publications. So I did some research.
The question is:
Is this an official account for Bahcesehir Uni (Bau)?
Bahcesehir Uni, BAU has an official website https://t.co/ztzX6uj34V which links to their social media, leading to their Twitter account @Bahcesehir
BAU’s official Twitter account
BAU has many departments, which all have separate accounts. Nowhere among them did I find @BAUDEGS
@BAUOrganization @ApplyBAU @adayBAU @BAUAlumniCenter @bahcesehirfbe @baufens @CyprusBau @bauiisbf @bauglobal @bahcesehirebe @BAUintBatumi @BAUiletisim @BAUSaglik @bauebf @TIPBAU
Nowhere among them was @BAUDEGS to find
The question is:
Is this an official account for Bahcesehir Uni (Bau)?
Bahcesehir Uni, BAU has an official website https://t.co/ztzX6uj34V which links to their social media, leading to their Twitter account @Bahcesehir
BAU’s official Twitter account
BAU has many departments, which all have separate accounts. Nowhere among them did I find @BAUDEGS
@BAUOrganization @ApplyBAU @adayBAU @BAUAlumniCenter @bahcesehirfbe @baufens @CyprusBau @bauiisbf @bauglobal @bahcesehirebe @BAUintBatumi @BAUiletisim @BAUSaglik @bauebf @TIPBAU
Nowhere among them was @BAUDEGS to find
