He won because his opponent’s turnout was pushed down by a full-court press that tapped everything from misogyny to poll tampering.
2/
I’m just going to lay this down now so it’s on record:
Trump’s campaign has used the exact same strategy it used in 2016: smear his opponent; attempt to demotivate their base; and actively attempt to prevent or obstruct them from voting.
It is a push-down strategy.
1/
Striking finding from NYT/Siena: Biden has big leads among those who didn't vote in 2016. And they make up non-trivial portions of the electorate.
— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) November 1, 2020
Here are Biden's leads, followed by their vote share:
WI +19 (11%)
FL +17 (18%)
PA +12 (18%)
AZ +7 (22%)
It's a new electorate.
He won because his opponent’s turnout was pushed down by a full-court press that tapped everything from misogyny to poll tampering.
2/
But it isn’t working because:
1) We now understand it
2) Many who were effectively suppressed last time have had four years to see what that cost
3) Biden isn’t susceptible to the same illegitimate biases
3/
The media, pundits and analysts never fully reckoned with the extent to which Hillary’s vote was just suppressed.
4/
Trump only won by smothering just enough of his opponent’s support.
Some of the voters who that succeeded with in 2016 are vehemently un-smotherable this time.
5/
Trump is a one-trick pony: depress the other guy’s votes. It worked in 2016. The whole system helped.
The media loves to hate Hillary too much to fully admit that.
6/
Trump is going to lose. It isn’t going to be a nail-biter.
And the post mortems will go right on missing the fact that Trump never, ever held the backing of enough ppl to win.
7/
It was always right there to see.
8/
It is right there to see.
9/
His support is no different.
It wasn’t enough then. It isn’t enough now.
It took a perfect storm in 2016.
Now he can’t even rustle the drapes.
And that was always right there to see.
But boring races don’t sell ad space.
10/10
Right. There. To. See. https://t.co/oI4mBi0FpU
Per my average of polls going back to 1948, Trump has set a new record as the first incumbent president to poll below 47% of the national two-party vote every day since June 1st of the election cycle.
— G. Elliott Morris (@gelliottmorris) November 1, 2020
More from The Hoarse Whisperer
So, in Trump’s narcissistic cycle, there is a predictable sequence of phases that play out whenever he is facing a public humiliation.
1) Double Down Donnie
2) Loco Lawn Sprinkler
3) Sad and Silent
4) Hunting for Scapegoats
5) Riding the Excuse Train
1/
Whenever Trump is facing a public embarrassment he sees coming, he first doubles down on all of the stupid shit that put him in that hole to begin with. He has no other tools.
Then he frantically spins like a lawn sprinkler desperately spraying unhinged nonsense.
2/
The worse the pending embarrassment, the more unhinged the nutbaggery out of his mouth.
See: the past week.
It has been just a firehose of industrial-grade batshit.
3/
Then, when the embarrassment arrives, he gets quiet and sullen like a chastised little boy and runs off to cocoon.
Listen to the clips from the thread in the first post. Talking about his presidency in a tired, dejected past tense.
No aggression. No real fight left.
4/
Trump entirely disregulates as the embarrassment train is bearing down. He seems out of control because he is. No control over himself. An overtired toddler x1,000.
Then the train passes the point of avoidance though and Trump shrinks into a sad ball (albeit briefly).
5/
1) Double Down Donnie
2) Loco Lawn Sprinkler
3) Sad and Silent
4) Hunting for Scapegoats
5) Riding the Excuse Train
1/
Trump will soon be joining Fox & Friends, only about 6 hours after his last Election Day-eve rally ended pic.twitter.com/EAhGEGO1m1
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) November 3, 2020
Whenever Trump is facing a public embarrassment he sees coming, he first doubles down on all of the stupid shit that put him in that hole to begin with. He has no other tools.
Then he frantically spins like a lawn sprinkler desperately spraying unhinged nonsense.
2/
The worse the pending embarrassment, the more unhinged the nutbaggery out of his mouth.
See: the past week.
It has been just a firehose of industrial-grade batshit.
3/
Then, when the embarrassment arrives, he gets quiet and sullen like a chastised little boy and runs off to cocoon.
Listen to the clips from the thread in the first post. Talking about his presidency in a tired, dejected past tense.
No aggression. No real fight left.
4/
Trump entirely disregulates as the embarrassment train is bearing down. He seems out of control because he is. No control over himself. An overtired toddler x1,000.
Then the train passes the point of avoidance though and Trump shrinks into a sad ball (albeit briefly).
5/
I read up on the last several men the federal government rushed to put to death this past month.
Sister Helen is 100% right. None of the defendants would have come anywhere near a death penalty had they had money and privilege.
1/
Take the person executed last night: Dustin Higgs.
Higgs, another man and a woman were involved in the murder of two people. The trio had picked the victims up and taken them to a desolate area where they were shot.
2/
The reasons for the shooting were unclear. To make their case, prosecutors offered a deal to Higgs’ two associates: testify that Higgs had orchestrated the killing and they would be charged with lesser offenses.
So, the two did.
3/
The man testified that he had actually been the shooter and had murdered the two women - but had been told to do so by Higgs.
The actual murderer avoided the death penalty. The other associate got a lighter sentence.
4/
I entirely 1,000% believe that prosecutors would have never even pursued the death penalty had Higgs had intimidating counsel.
Epstein got a walk for a boatload of crimes, in part, because prosecutors were intimidated of the fight they’d face.
5/
Sister Helen is 100% right. None of the defendants would have come anywhere near a death penalty had they had money and privilege.
1/
The death penalty is fundamentally a poor person\u2019s issue. Over nearly 40 years of visiting death row facilities across the United States, I have never met a single person with money or resources. Capital punishment means \u201cthose without the capital get the punishment.\u201d
— Sister Helen Prejean (@helenprejean) January 16, 2021
Take the person executed last night: Dustin Higgs.
Higgs, another man and a woman were involved in the murder of two people. The trio had picked the victims up and taken them to a desolate area where they were shot.
2/
The reasons for the shooting were unclear. To make their case, prosecutors offered a deal to Higgs’ two associates: testify that Higgs had orchestrated the killing and they would be charged with lesser offenses.
So, the two did.
3/
The man testified that he had actually been the shooter and had murdered the two women - but had been told to do so by Higgs.
The actual murderer avoided the death penalty. The other associate got a lighter sentence.
4/
I entirely 1,000% believe that prosecutors would have never even pursued the death penalty had Higgs had intimidating counsel.
Epstein got a walk for a boatload of crimes, in part, because prosecutors were intimidated of the fight they’d face.
5/
This is the most significant window into Trump’s psychology since the election.
He is so gravely wounded by his loss, even the usual protections a narcissist employs aren’t saving him.
1/
The pattern for Trump has always been the exact same without deviation.
When faced with a public humiliation, he 1) broods; 2) scapegoats; 3) adopts a face-saving excuse; and 4) gets back on his feet.
He isn’t reaching #4.
2/
It is remarkable and striking.
He is so debilitated by the public humiliation of having lost, he can’t even function in the dysfunctional way he used to...
Normally, he’d be posturing about how his loss was actually somehow a win for him. He’d be claiming he benefitted.
3/
He would have fully adopted a narrative about what happened *in the past* and would be talking about how great things were for him *in the present and future*.
Instead, he is a month into a spiral he can’t pull himself out of where he is still trying to change the outcome.
4/
I thought a trip to Mar a Lago would pull him out of that.
He’d be surrounded by people who looked at him adoringly and nodded at his nonsense with love and reverence.
He’d see that his facade of specialness was still intact *there at least*.
5/
He is so gravely wounded by his loss, even the usual protections a narcissist employs aren’t saving him.
1/
Trump is flying back from Mar-a-Lago today to the White House. He usually stays through the holiday. He will miss the New Year festivities at his precious club. The White House did not provide a reason for this early departure. So...watch out.
— David Corn (@DavidCornDC) December 31, 2020
The pattern for Trump has always been the exact same without deviation.
When faced with a public humiliation, he 1) broods; 2) scapegoats; 3) adopts a face-saving excuse; and 4) gets back on his feet.
He isn’t reaching #4.
2/
It is remarkable and striking.
He is so debilitated by the public humiliation of having lost, he can’t even function in the dysfunctional way he used to...
Normally, he’d be posturing about how his loss was actually somehow a win for him. He’d be claiming he benefitted.
3/
He would have fully adopted a narrative about what happened *in the past* and would be talking about how great things were for him *in the present and future*.
Instead, he is a month into a spiral he can’t pull himself out of where he is still trying to change the outcome.
4/
I thought a trip to Mar a Lago would pull him out of that.
He’d be surrounded by people who looked at him adoringly and nodded at his nonsense with love and reverence.
He’d see that his facade of specialness was still intact *there at least*.
5/
More from Politics
"3 million people are estimated not to have official photo ID, with ethnic minorities more at risk". They will "have to contact their council to confirm their ID if they want to vote"
This is shameful legislation, that does nothing to tackle the problems with UK elections.THREAD
There is no evidence in-person voter fraud is a problem, and it wd be near-impossible to organise on an effective scale. Campaign finance violations, digital disinformation & manipulation of postal voting are bigger issues, but these are crimes of the powerful, not the powerless.
In a democracy, anything that makes it harder to vote - in particular, anything that disadvantages one group of voters - should face an extremely high bar. Compulsory voter ID takes a hammer to 3 million legitimate voters (disproportionately poor & BAME) to crack an imaginary nut
If the government is concerned about the purity of elections, it should reflect on its own conduct. In 2019 it circulated doctored news footage of an opponent, disguised its twitter feed as a fake fact-checking site, and ran adverts so dishonest that even Facebook took them down.
Britain's electoral law largely predates the internet. There is little serious regulation of online campaigning or the cash that pays for it. That allows unscrupulous campaigners to ignore much of the legal framework erected since the C19th to guard against electoral misconduct.
This is shameful legislation, that does nothing to tackle the problems with UK elections.THREAD
Millions of people do not have photo ID. By forcing through mandatory voter-ID the government risk disenfranchising millions of legitimate voters. https://t.co/y0Upzof2FI
— Electoral Reform Society (@electoralreform) February 17, 2021
There is no evidence in-person voter fraud is a problem, and it wd be near-impossible to organise on an effective scale. Campaign finance violations, digital disinformation & manipulation of postal voting are bigger issues, but these are crimes of the powerful, not the powerless.
In a democracy, anything that makes it harder to vote - in particular, anything that disadvantages one group of voters - should face an extremely high bar. Compulsory voter ID takes a hammer to 3 million legitimate voters (disproportionately poor & BAME) to crack an imaginary nut
If the government is concerned about the purity of elections, it should reflect on its own conduct. In 2019 it circulated doctored news footage of an opponent, disguised its twitter feed as a fake fact-checking site, and ran adverts so dishonest that even Facebook took them down.
Britain's electoral law largely predates the internet. There is little serious regulation of online campaigning or the cash that pays for it. That allows unscrupulous campaigners to ignore much of the legal framework erected since the C19th to guard against electoral misconduct.
What does "patriots in control" mean?
What would that "look like" in reality?
So a massive adult film star in all his glory is included in an official FBI government filing
Hunter Biden's book is categorized as "Chinese
TIME admits to "conspiracy" to "not rig, rather
A "pillow guy" has military-grade intercepts detailing the IP addresses and device MAC IDs of EVERY incursion into every county in the
What would that "look like" in reality?
So a massive adult film star in all his glory is included in an official FBI government filing
Perhaps the explanation is that Patriots are in control.
— David Burney (@jdburney1) February 6, 2021
\U0001f923\U0001f923\U0001f923\U0001f923 https://t.co/W3S8TgeY74
Hunter Biden's book is categorized as "Chinese
Patriots in control?
— David Burney (@jdburney1) February 6, 2021
\U0001f923\U0001f923\U0001f923\U0001f923 https://t.co/p0rEyfd2DW
TIME admits to "conspiracy" to "not rig, rather
TIME admits stolen election, with spin!
— David Burney (@jdburney1) February 6, 2021
"They weren't rigging the election, they were fortifying it."
Recognize the Ministry of Truth? How many things in the last few years have been redefined to be the opposite of reality?
Google the definition of "bigot" if you doubt me. https://t.co/CNU888fxr4 pic.twitter.com/UEhRBOtUB6
A "pillow guy" has military-grade intercepts detailing the IP addresses and device MAC IDs of EVERY incursion into every county in the
God bless the pillow manufacturer.
— David Burney (@jdburney1) February 6, 2021
The last 30 minutes details where every single incursion is recorded including IP and MAC addresses. 100% proof. pic.twitter.com/P5MVb1xGNC
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Speech Delay is most common in children nowadays
In ancient times, our grandparents used to follow typical natural way of caring the needs of a child. All they used were more of natural products than chemical based for the growth of child.
One of major step followed was to feed Gurbach Jadd/ Vasa Kommu/ Acorus Calamus for initiating good speech ability in a child. This stem was needed to babies on Tuesdays and Sundays in mother's milk.
Vasa is feed to baby after the 1st bath on 12th day in week. Weekly only thrice it is fed and named as :
Budhwar - Budhi Vasa
Mangalwar - Vaak Vasa
Ravi Vaar - Aayush Vasa
This stem is burnt and rubbed against the grinding stone in mother's milk or warm water to get a paste
The procedure to make it is in the link
https://t.co/uo4sGp7mUm
It should not be given daily to the child. Other main benefits are
1. It clears the phlegm in child's throat caused due to continuous milk intake. It clears the tracts and breathing is effortless.
2. Digestion
For children who haven't got their speech and is delayed than usual should feed this vasa on these days in week atleast for 6months. Don't get carried away with this dialogue
"Some gain speech little late"
In ancient times, our grandparents used to follow typical natural way of caring the needs of a child. All they used were more of natural products than chemical based for the growth of child.
One of major step followed was to feed Gurbach Jadd/ Vasa Kommu/ Acorus Calamus for initiating good speech ability in a child. This stem was needed to babies on Tuesdays and Sundays in mother's milk.
Vasa is feed to baby after the 1st bath on 12th day in week. Weekly only thrice it is fed and named as :
Budhwar - Budhi Vasa
Mangalwar - Vaak Vasa
Ravi Vaar - Aayush Vasa
This stem is burnt and rubbed against the grinding stone in mother's milk or warm water to get a paste
The procedure to make it is in the link
https://t.co/uo4sGp7mUm
It should not be given daily to the child. Other main benefits are
1. It clears the phlegm in child's throat caused due to continuous milk intake. It clears the tracts and breathing is effortless.
2. Digestion
For children who haven't got their speech and is delayed than usual should feed this vasa on these days in week atleast for 6months. Don't get carried away with this dialogue
"Some gain speech little late"
“We don’t negotiate salaries” is a negotiation tactic.
Always. No, your company is not an exception.
A tactic I don’t appreciate at all because of how unfairly it penalizes low-leverage, junior employees, and those loyal enough not to question it, but that’s negotiation for you after all. Weaponized information asymmetry.
Listen to Aditya
And by the way, you should never be worried that an offer would be withdrawn if you politely negotiate.
I have seen this happen *extremely* rarely, mostly to women, and anyway is a giant red flag. It suggests you probably didn’t want to work there.
You wish there was no negotiating so it would all be more fair? I feel you, but it’s not happening.
Instead, negotiate hard, use your privilege, and then go and share numbers with your underrepresented and underpaid colleagues. […]
Always. No, your company is not an exception.
A tactic I don’t appreciate at all because of how unfairly it penalizes low-leverage, junior employees, and those loyal enough not to question it, but that’s negotiation for you after all. Weaponized information asymmetry.
Listen to Aditya
"we don't negotiate salaries" really means "we'd prefer to negotiate massive signing bonuses and equity grants, but we'll negotiate salary if you REALLY insist" https://t.co/80k7nWAMoK
— Aditya Mukerjee, the Otterrific \U0001f3f3\ufe0f\u200d\U0001f308 (@chimeracoder) December 4, 2018
And by the way, you should never be worried that an offer would be withdrawn if you politely negotiate.
I have seen this happen *extremely* rarely, mostly to women, and anyway is a giant red flag. It suggests you probably didn’t want to work there.
You wish there was no negotiating so it would all be more fair? I feel you, but it’s not happening.
Instead, negotiate hard, use your privilege, and then go and share numbers with your underrepresented and underpaid colleagues. […]