BC POLITICS
Saved by @Jacobtldr

well... it's time for my ELECTION FORECAST.

First, some notes about my thoughts, and statistics, etc...

If you want to see the forecasts, just scroll on past the next few tweets to get to that... BUT these notes are important.

1/

 My feeling is that the polls are getting this wrong, and in a BIG WAY. There are so many factors that are the cause... I'll run through them.

First, the media and pollsters are GREATLY underestimating the extreme anger rising up in the American population against trump...

2/
It's hard to overstate this. This is an election like no other in modern history. We have a president and an administration who are actively killing people during an election cycle, and seem to have no qualms about doing so... and the public is ACUTELY AWARE of this.

3/
Next, the youth vote. We're seeing a 600% increase in the youth vote, just in early voting, down here in Texas... and similar huge increases across the country. Pollsters aren't reaching these people... at all.

4/
Next, first time voters. This factor is massive. We're seeing huge numbers of first time voters across the country. Pollsters will never reach these people, as they don't fall into the categories of "active" or "likely" voters.

5/
Next, minority voters. We're seeing big increases in early voting from all minority sectors, and I expect that trend to be even more noticeable on election day itself. This is another group that is hard to reach for pollsters.

6/
Next, WOMEN. Women are pissed, my friends, and trump is losing them in a big way. Every effort he makes to lure them back is backfiring because everything he says just further reveals his misogyny.

7/
Next, Republican crossovers. I estimate that the number of registered Republicans who will vote for Democrats this year to be as high as 20%... and a large portion of those will vote straight ticket because they are fed up with the entire GOP.

8/
Lastly, independents. I think independents are breaking about 75/25 for Democrats, and largely voting straight ticket.

So, with all of these factors, I'm assuming that the polls are really, really wrong.

And now....
On to the forecast....

9/
I believe that Joe Biden will win the popular vote by a minimum of 20%. I'm projecting him to have a minimum of 489 electoral college votes. It may take a few days for votes to be counted, but I think it will be VERY CLEAR on election night who the winner is. Here's the map.

10/
A quick note to election night doomsayers:

We have a MASSIVE army of lawyers and volunteers in place who have been planning for years... there will be no fuckery. Any attempts trump and company make to slow or stop the lawful counting of votes will fail. PERIOD.

11/
On to the Senate...

I believe Democrats will pick up a minimum of 15 seats. A minimum... there will be one or two sleepers that might bring this number up even higher... I'll lay out the races one by one.

12/
Alabama... Jones will win +5 (pickup)
Alaska... Gross will win +4 (pickup)
Arizona... Kelly will win +15 (pickup)
Arkansas... Cotton (R) will win (unchallenged)
Colorado... Hickenlooper wins +13 (pickup)

13/
Delaware... Coons will win +35
Georgia... Warnock wins with over 50% (pickup)
Georgia... Ossoff wins +7 (pickup)
Idaho... Risch (R) wins +8
Illinois... Durbin wins +30

14/
Iowa... Greenfield will win +10 (pickup)
Kansas... Bollier wins +7 (pickup)
Kentucky... McGrath wins +2 (pickup)
Louisiana... Cassidy (R) will win +5
Maine... Gideon will win +12 (pickup)

15/
Massachusetts... Markey will win +18
Michigan... Peters will win +13
Minnesota... Smith wins +12
Mississippi... Espy wins +5 (pickup)
Montana... Bullock will win +6 (pickup)

16/
New Hampshire... Shaheen wins +20
New Jersey... Booker wins +35
New Mexico... Lujan will win +15
North Carolina... Cunningham wins +6 (pickup)
Nebraska... Sasse (R) wins +10

17/
Oklahoma... Inhoffe (R) wins by a hair... but this could be a sleeper. (potential pickup)
Oregon... Merkley will win +30
Rhode Island... Reed will win +50
South Carolina... Harrison wins +6 (pickup)
South Dakota... Rounds (R) will win +15

18/
Tennessee.... Hagerty (R) wins +3
Texas... Hegar wins +6 (pickup)
Virginia... Warner wins +14
West Virginia... Capito (R) wins +6
Wyoming... Lummis (R) wins +18

19/
On to the House...

I'm not going to cover each race individually, but if you want me to look at a particular race just DM me and I'll have a look and add it to the thread....

20/
I'm projecting that Democrats will pick up a MINIMUM of 30 seats in the House of Representatives...

Yes. a minimum. Of 30. Seats.

21/
I also believe that Democrats will flip a minimum of SEVEN STATE LEGISLATURES, including Michigan (house), Minnesota (senate), Iowa (house), Pennsylvania (house), Texas (house), Arizona (leg.), North Carolina (leg.)... and probably Wisconsin (senate) too.

22/
This thread will continue with requested close up looks at specific races.... but one last thing... you might be wondering how my astro projections mesh with this.

Well, if you read my pinned thread you know I'm calling for a monumental shift... and this. is. monumental.

23/
Oh... I forgot. My estimate of seats we’ll flip in the house is 42. Which is.... the meaning of the universe.

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Bhurshut empire thrived from 15th century till late 18th century as an independent kingdom while acting as tributary state with full autonomy.

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