The July 2021 edition of 'Netra' (our 'Early Warning & Signals' guide through charts) is out now!😎

Check out this thread👇 for the latest update.

If you want the full document, download it here: https://t.co/wkwXBkvafQ

Auto & Ancillaries generally outperform Nifty in most upcycles. Can this sector repeat the same? If it does, it will be quite an opportunity!

Download full deck: https://t.co/wkwXBkvafQ
Higher oil prices may not be all that bad, at least until they aren’t 'hurting'.

So the next time you see higher prices at the petrol pump, think about higher exports for India as a consolation.😑

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India's FX reserves are higher than its external debt. That makes India better-placed to withstand external vulnerabilities like a ‘Taper Tantrum’ & makes it a ‘Buy the Dip’ play on a tantrum.

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Income-inequality is a sticky & legacy issue in India. Crises causes the weak to become weaker & calls for a policy intervention.

More often than not, the best curve is faster growth, not redistribution!

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Credit growth has been declining for many quarters. Industrial credit has been contracting.

Are we at the cusp of a recovery? If demand recovers, we have a good chance. Financials will benefit immensely from this.

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Inflationists will tell you that bond markets are under the control of central banks. But are they really?

When was the last time the yield on Junk bonds became negative, while inflation & growth were rebounding? Never!

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Market-implied measures of inflation are better at indicating inflationary pressures than Central Bank rhetoric or economist consensus readings.

In fact, market participants have missed 3 decades of disinflation in developed markets!

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'Value' & 'Growth' styles have diverged over the last decade and COVID accelerated the trend towards Growth.

This divergence is now at a historic extreme. Buckle up!

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In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, People Bank of China came out all guns blazing & kept firing for far too long! It is not repeating the same mistake again. This could have negative implications for commodities.

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Shortage of manufacturing labor is a leading driver for 'Robot' demand in China, met by imports from Japan.

Is it an indication of a new era of automation & artificial intelligence, causing unemployment?

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1/ Some initial thoughts on personal moats:

Like company moats, your personal moat should be a competitive advantage that is not only durable—it should also compound over time.

Characteristics of a personal moat below:


2/ Like a company moat, you want to build career capital while you sleep.

As Andrew Chen noted:


3/ You don’t want to build a competitive advantage that is fleeting or that will get commoditized

Things that might get commoditized over time (some longer than


4/ Before the arrival of recorded music, what used to be scarce was the actual music itself — required an in-person artist.

After recorded music, the music itself became abundant and what became scarce was curation, distribution, and self space.

5/ Similarly, in careers, what used to be (more) scarce were things like ideas, money, and exclusive relationships.

In the internet economy, what has become scarce are things like specific knowledge, rare & valuable skills, and great reputations.