Thread: People love to rag on Nate Silver for his arrogance & they should, but he's merely an example of a larger issue that the web has made it easy to draw inferences from data without knowing the context in which it lives. 1/x

Conservatives love to complain that everyone is against them: professors, journalists, intelligence officers, social media companies, and so on.

I used to as well until I considered that maybe having problems with everyone else isn't their fault, it's yours.

I was reminded of that realization when I read this important NYT article about how Facebook keeps weakening news source quality controls because conservative content gets disproportionately effected by them.

Unfortunately, this great piece of reporting by @MikeIsaac, @sheeraf, & @kevinroose didn't mention the greatest challenge in AI news signal processing: Humans can barely separate conservative & far-right content. Which means computers can't either.

This techno-semiotic conundrum originates from the fact that in the US, because there is no moderate conservative tradition, the gravitational center of the right is far removed from the political center.

More plainly, this means that almost all the energy and organizing on the right exists on the far right.

This is not the case on the US left where there is a strong moderate tradition capable of organization and force projection. Ask Bernie Sanders if you disbelieve.

As a former conservative activist and journalist, it has been so frustrating to see my former compatriots spreading wild and unchecked claims about "voter fraud." @jacknicas of the NYT took a deep look at claims of "dead" people in Michigan voting. Link in next tweet.

While examining claims made by right-wing activists who are not credible individuals is a thankless task which elite media editors despise, this is vital and important work in this age of fake news. Here's the link:

As the co-creator of NewsBusters, the most prominent anti-media website, I was part of a decades-long tradition of complaining about media elites being "unfair" to conservative views. There is still much to that argument, but eventually I saw that I was missing context.

What I did not realize until I began expanding my work into creating actual media and reporting institutions such as the Washington Examiner (I was the founding online editor) was that U.S. conservatives do not understand the purpose of journalism.

This became evident to me as I saw that conservative-dominated media outlets were MUCH more biased than outlets run by liberals. The latter had flaws that arose from a lack of diversities (note plural) but they operated mostly in good faith. That's not how the former operated.

Thread: Conservative Policy and the Trump Presidency

On the last full day of the Trump administration, I think it's useful to examine why he accomplished so little legislatively. TLDR version: American conservatism has almost no policy program.

The most important thing to know about conservative politicking is that people do not vote FOR Republicans, they vote AGAINST Democrats.

The GOP is dominated by a minority of far-right activists and wealthy donors who have views that their own voters don't support.

American conservatism is premised on the twin ideas that the New Deal & Great Society were immoral and that God himself created America and that we should honor this creation by establishing full Christian supremacism in which LGBT people, atheists, and Muslims have fewer rights.

Because God created America, this means that conservatives believe in essentially no domestic policy of any kind. If it wasn't literally in the Constitution, then the feds shouldn't be doing it is their opinion.

This is not, however, how things used to be in the GOP.

For much of its history, American conservatism was a sort of intellectual parasite on the Republican party which was run by a mix of moderates and liberals. They actually had domestic policies. Dwight Eisenhower and Richard Nixon had many policies that actually helped America.

For the past 6 years, I & a few other journalists have been trying to get the mainstream press and political elites realize the major danger posed by the radical right. Unfortunately, moderate and liberal elites deluded themselves into thinking that conservatism wasn't a cult.

There is no secretly powerful "Republican establishment" that will fix things. There are thugs, deluded people, and there are quislings. There is no one else in the GOP. Instead of focusing on the radical right's danger, editors wanted stories about Trump tweets.

Instead of calling out the dangerous radicalism of the GOP, television debate shows and opinion pages invited the enablers of fascism to speak and write about how we all needed to give powerful insane people the benefit of the doubt.

Unlike Trump, who walled off the White House months ago into a fortress, Nancy Pelosi did not take the terrorist threat seriously enough to demand better security. She has the budget and the authority and did nothing similar. Now, fascists are on the floor of Congress.

Of course, it is Trump who bears the responsibility for this but the Capitol Police have totally disgraced themselves by not fortifying the building the way that the Secret Service did to the WH.

This is the view of numerous congressional staffers of both parties.

A Conspiracy Thread: Did Chaos Magick Break Reality?

What the hell is going on? Coronavirus, societal collapse, monoliths, aliens, what more do I need to say? Did William S. Burroughs actually achieve his goal of breaking reality? Let me explain.

William S. Burroughs was a member of Peter J. Carroll’s magickal organization, The Illuminates of Thanateros. They practiced chaos magick, a system of magick that denies all fixed models of reality. Basically they are encouraged to believe in whatever reality they want.

Burroughs was also an author who often used the cut-up method to write his novels, a technique that involves cutting up newspapers and magazines, putting the clippings in a hat, and then randomly pulling them out to create sentences.

Burroughs believed the cut-up method was a form of chaos magick that destabilized language, which he claimed was the main control mechanism of reality. Burroughs’ goal was to utterly destroy and dismantle all control systems and he thought his cut-ups could help him achieve this.

If you have less revenue/growth/success than you wish you had, then the best thing you can do is OWN IT.

Write a tweet, tell your friends, and move on.

Once you own it, you fix it.

99% of people on Twitter/social media/internet won't do this.

Being radically transparent and honest is a competitive (and life) advantage.

From @RayDalio's Principles:

My new product has 14 users and <$400 monthly revenue. I've spent the last 4 months on it.

I'm going through a lot of pain to validate and grow it.

But if anyone asks me how it's going I will tell them exactly that.

If I asked them, I would hope they would give me the raw truth as well. Truth builds trust.

I think that goes for your internet audience as well. Authenticity is attractive.

I see this with @starter_story all the time - people don't want to share their revenue yet because they don't have any, or it's not high enough (not all cases but often).

I wish I could tell them that getting the cat out of the bag would actually fix the problem itself!!

10 Red flags to note in relationships .

A thread !

1. Secrecy - There is a difference between being private and being secretive . Anyone who doesn’t want people to know you are dating may have somethings they are hiding . It’s ok to be private but alarm bells should ring where there is secrecy .

2. Barter - The relationship is almost always about what is being exchanged . While there will be exchanges in every relationship, an undue focus on this will indicate that someone is there for something they can get and not what they can give .

3. Misaligned values - What is sacred to you isn’t respected by the other .values like honesty , integrity , respect isn’t important to the other party . A relationship with nonaligned values cannot work ! There will always be conflict .

4. Mystery income - Some folks are dating thieves , robbers and fraudsters and always have signs to indicate that their partners are fraudulent. It is a huge red flag not to know what your other half actually does for money . It’s not wise to join a sinking boat .

You wanna know the truth? My best friend just dropped me for no discernable reason in December when I was going through an unrelated mental breakdown (started in October) that required new treatment. To this day I have no clue what happened.

This has, without a doubt, been the most traumatic event that has ever happened to me. I had felt that maybe there was distance there, but I was trying to take care of myself. He reassured me he loved me just 1 week prior. Then, he said he was going to quit working with me.

He had been my business partner and literally helped me co-own my business. He requested his name be dropped from the company completely and that he needed to "put my family first" and find a different job. I don't know what that family first comment meant at all...

Then, he stopped communicating with me as frequently. This lasted a few days. He started acting extremely squirrelly and dodging direct questions. Very innocent questions like, "are you doing okay?" Again, this whole time I'm dealing with a genuine mental breakdown.

Last, he sent me a bizarre vague message, telling me that he didn't want to talk to me "in the foreseeable future" and cited some of the - honestly - most paranoid reasons for this. We live literally across the globe from one another. One of the things he accused me of was ...