I turned 30 recently.

While far from old and wise, I have learned a few things along the way - on life, business, writing, investing, and growth.

Here are a few important lessons learned...

Lindy Effect 101

With Bitcoin's return to the spotlight, debates on its long-term viability are raging. Its proponents contend @nntaleb's Lindy Effect says the technology is here to stay.

But what is the "Lindy Effect" and how does it work?

Here's Lindy Effect 101!

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1/ First, a few definitions.

The Lindy Effect is a theory that the future life expectancy of specific non-perishable items, like a technology or idea, is proportional to their age.

Put simply, the longer it has already lasted, the higher the likelihood it will continue to last.

2/ The term "Lindy effect" is a reference to Lindy's, a New York deli frequented by comedians in the 1960s.

While author Albert Goldman used the term "Lindy's Law" in a 1964 article, it was mathematician Benoit Mandlebrot who moved the dialogue towards the current definition.

3/ In his book, entitled The Fractal Geometry of Nature, Mandlebrot commented that the more stage appearances a Lindy's comedian made, the more future appearances he could be predicted to make.

The longer he lasted, the longer he would continue to last.

4/ @nntaleb built upon Mandelbrot's work, formally coining the term "Lindy Effect" in his book, Antifragile.

He noted the Lindy Effect with books - the longer a book has been in print, the longer it is likely to survive.

With no natural upper bound, power laws come into play.

Survivorship Bias 101

History is written by the victors. But if we exclusively focus on these successes, we allow survivorship bias to distort our understanding of the world.

But what is "survivorship bias" and how does it work?

Here's Survivorship Bias 101!

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1/ First, a few definitions.

Survivorship bias is the logical error of concentrating on survivors (successes) and ignoring casualties (failures).

When we do so, we miss the true "base rates" of survival (the actual probability of success) and arrive at flawed conclusions.

2/ When we completely ignore failures, we lose our ability to correctly identify the differences between successes and failures.

Put simply, exclusively focusing on successes may actually inhibit our ability to identify (and replicate) the actions that led to such success.

3/ Cicero wrote on the topic over 2,000 years ago.

An atheist named Diagoras is shown portraits of people who prayed and were saved from death at sea as proof of God's existence.

Diagoras replies, "I see those who were saved, but where are those painted who were shipwrecked?"

4/ Cicero cuts right to the point - we cannot conclude that prayer led to being saved from the sea if we ignore those who prayed and then drowned.

Survivorship bias can lead to a deeply-flawed understanding of cause-and-effect relationships.

Let's look at some examples.

The Feynman Technique is a foundational mental model for unlocking growth in your career, startup, business, or writing.

A thread on how it works and how it can change your life...

Richard Feynman was an American theoretical physicist.

He won the Nobel Prize in Physics in 1965 for his groundbreaking work in quantum electrodynamics.

Feynman's true genius, however, was in his ability to convey extremely complex ideas in simple, digestible ways.

Richard Feynman observed that complexity and jargon are often used to mask a lack of deep understanding.

The Feynman Technique is a learning framework that forces you to strip away needless complexity and develop a deep, elegant understanding of a given topic.

The Feynman Technique involves four key steps:

(1) Identify
(2) ELI5 ("Explain It To Me Like I'm 5")
(3) Reflect & Study
(4) Organize, Convey & Review

Let's cover each step and how you can make this powerful framework work for you...

Step 1: Identify

What is the topic you want to learn more about?

Identify the topic and write down everything you know about it.

Read and research the topic and write down all of your new learnings (and the sources of each).

This first step sets the stage for what is to come.

The Icarus Paradox offers a critical lesson on business, investing, and life.

Here’s a simple breakdown:

The story of Icarus is a famous tale from Greek mythology.

Icarus is the son of a craftsman—Daedalus.

To help the pair escape from Crete, Daedalus uses feathers and wax to create two sets of wings.

Prior to the attempt, Daedalus warns his son to avoid complacency and hubris.

Daedalus instructs Icarus to avoid flying too low or too high—cautioning that the sea's moisture or the sun's heat could cause the wings to malfunction.

But Icarus becomes amazed by his flight and soars away.

The sun melts the wax on his wings and Icarus falls to his death.

The tale of Icarus offers a poignant lesson:

Avoid complacency and hubris at all times.

What makes you successful initially may eventually lead to your downfall.

This is often referred to as "The Icarus Paradox”—it shows up constantly in business, investing, and life:

In business, how many incumbents have we seen achieve success with one product, only to be disrupted when the market shifts under their feet?

Overconfidence and success blinds incumbents to the coming wave of disruption.

60+ companies from the 1966 Fortune 100 no longer exist!

The interview process is never fun.

But it’s a real opportunity to stand out.

Master these 10 common questions to nail your next interview:

Question: “Tell me about yourself.”

This isn’t an invitation to recite your resume.

It's a test of whether you can provide a concise, thoughtful overview of your past, present, and future.

Keep it short.

Focus on key decisions and insights that may not pop off the page.

Question: “Why this company?”

Standard test for for shotgun blast applicants.

A generic answer can derail your process.

Do your research. Write down 2-3 unique points about the company that appeal to you.

You won’t get the job with your answer, but you can definitely lose it.

Question: "What would you do in the first 100 days on the job?"

This is a test of your preparation, research, initiative, and humility.

Have a concrete plan for how you would approach your early days.

Be sure fact-finding and learning is a key part of it (the humility aspect).

Question: “What are your strengths?”

Resist the urge to reel off a long list of broad strengths.

Tailor your response to the role and company.

Provide 1-2 key strengths that make you well-suited for this specific job.

Leverage storytelling—bring them to life with anecdotes!

In the space of half a year, a new class division was ripped through American society: those who can live normally through pandemic lockdowns and restrictions versus those who can't. The two sides have a great deal of difficulty communicating across that chasm.

Of course, media and political elites are, at worst, inconvenienced by lockdowns, so news coverage is heavily slanted against the people who are really suffering from these policies. They're already as forgotten as the designated losers of globalist trade policy.

Spend a day watching mainstream media pandemic coverage, then spend the evening with people whose livelihoods have been utterly ruined by pandemic restrictions. It's like traveling from the Earth to Mars. Completely different worlds, totally different outlooks.

It's exactly like the divide between "free trade" winners and losers, people living in comfortable financial and media bubbles vs. people living in hollowed-out ghost towns with skyrocketing mortality rates. The Wuhan virus gave us a new, even bigger class of Designated Losers.

The new class divide cracked open along some economic and social fault lines that were already present and deepening, such as the growing number of people who preferred minimizing human contact while socializing online. It really is the social schism of the new century.

The most interesting people defy categorization

Live an interesting enough life, and you’ll never be easy to describe

1/ there is this sense when you are young that your accomplishments need to be a list of things that seem impressive to others. A list of several items you did.

This isn't actually right, so here is another suggestion.

2/ I remember being 26 and writing about reading 52 books a year. I wrote blog posts about it. They got copied. It became "a thing." Now it's in Twitter bios. It looks impressive but it's insanely useless and I shouldn't have done it.

3/ what I should have known at that time is that only young idiots like myself, with no accomplishments, find list of tiny achievements impressive. Anyone who has actually done anything of substance doesn't gaf

4/ what is actually difficult, and worthwhile, instead is to do ONE single thing for a very, very long time. It's much harder and much rarer and results in outlier outcomes much more often.

Of course you can find this out too late if you are chasing the dragon of Ted talks etc

5/ if I had only worked on a startup for a year, I would've gotten nowhere, the same way that if you lift for 3 months, it achieves nothing. Everything good in life comes from perseverance, but at the beginning, you're just like "I need to be somebody!!!"