Thread on the #keirabell judgement and sorry state of evidence-lead health policy in New Zealand.

We have further confirmation that there is no good evidence of benefit from puberty blockers, and significant risks.

1/11

The judges heard evidence for and against, and testimony from former patients. They ruled that puberty blocking is "experimental", with "very limited evidence as to its efficacy"

An unsurprising finding if you're familiar with the literature.

2/11
This is a continuation of the findings from the national health body reviews from Sweden and Finland. Both find that evidence is insufficient.

3/11

https://t.co/SdNHXYPiCT
A review by the Center for Evidence Based Medicine at Oxford University highlighted the "profound scientific ignorance" on the the use of puberty blockers

4/11

https://t.co/jTnu4jfuUt
A 2018 review by an Australian expert group finds that all studies on the psych effects of puberty blockers have a medium or high risk of bias.

5/11

https://t.co/7L5dLrr5Zo
Ok, what about New Zealand?
Dr Jeannie Oliphant is the lead author of NZ guidelines. She described puberty blockers as "the gold standard for young people." and claims that "we are using puberty blockers very freely up until about till about 20".

6/11

https://t.co/DAeIpJqqCB
The NZ guidelines cite a *single* highly biased study (de Vries et al., 2014) and then claim that puberty blocking is supported by "good evidence"

7/11

https://t.co/pch96L8gVC
The lead author of the original study (de Vries) now believes puberty suppression is not always appropriate.

She believes psychosocial support may be more appropriate for children who have recent dysphoria

8/11

https://t.co/cgHf23gCCS
New Zealand children have the right to not be subject to medical experimentation. Health authorities must uphold the right to informed consent and provide psychosocial support.

9/11
If you know doctors and parents who are considering blocking a child's normal puberty, please forward them the judgement

10/11

https://t.co/nCsHJRhZSh
Thread summarised here ->

11/Fin

https://t.co/N3SdEm0sCK

More from Law

1/ After a good night's sleep, I have a few thoughts on the impending Ripple lawsuit.

Less schadenfreude, more "what now?" https://t.co/a0oTwblBHB


2/ First of all, the USG is going to lose.

I don't even need to read the complaint. They might force a settlement, but they're outclassed on legal.

Remember Ripple engaged former SEC Chair Mary Jo White in a civil matter in 2018. A hint of their

3/ Second, the USG should lose.

The SEC restrictions on non-accredited investors; the ridiculous Howey test; 80 year old securities law like the "40 Act" all need to die in fire. They are un-American and completely outdated.

I hope Ripple wins. (WUT?)

4/ Third, it's incumbent upon industry to self-police and hold the moral high ground.

I give certain individuals A's and others F's, but as a whole, the most powerful people and companies generally take a Swiss neutrality stance on assets.

So we're effectively in this together.

5/ We're "in this together" to draw lines of regulatory demarcation.

XRP as a "security" further hurts the U.S. businesses while global comps will continue to make these markets.

XRP as a security also means other assets will meet the same fate. At least Ripple has $ to fight.

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I’m torn on how to approach the idea of luck. I’m the first to admit that I am one of the luckiest people on the planet. To be born into a prosperous American family in 1960 with smart parents is to start life on third base. The odds against my very existence are astronomical.


I’ve always felt that the luckiest people I know had a talent for recognizing circumstances, not of their own making, that were conducive to a favorable outcome and their ability to quickly take advantage of them.

In other words, dumb luck was just that, it required no awareness on the person’s part, whereas “smart” luck involved awareness followed by action before the circumstances changed.

So, was I “lucky” to be born when I was—nothing I had any control over—and that I came of age just as huge databases and computers were advancing to the point where I could use those tools to write “What Works on Wall Street?” Absolutely.

Was I lucky to start my stock market investments near the peak of interest rates which allowed me to spend the majority of my adult life in a falling rate environment? Yup.