Excellent article on Investor psychology & Market cycles based on Howard Marks' "Mastering the Market Cycle".

cc: @dmuthuk @Gautam__Baid

My fav pts 👇
continued...
Excellent pts 👇

✔️Mania and risk
"The combination of feedback loops and irrational exuberance, where newfound expectations and enthusiasm, encourages investors to bid up and rationalize extraordinary growth in asset prices.
By contrast, during periods of fear and pessimism, many face difficulties with identifying potential future value beyond the immediate-term.

An understanding of where attitudes to risk sits within the current investor psychology cycle can be a useful knowledge advantage.
Markets may misprice assets on a risk-adjusted basis as society swings along the pendulum of psychology.

Marks believes that the biggest source of investment risk is when investors believe that there are no risks at all.
✔️Contrarianism
It is helpful to consider the extent to which optimism or pessimism is incorporated into current asset prices. Skepticism is needed when mass optimism or pessimism is in excess. Contrarianism at the right moments is an important ingredient for successful investing
The rational, analytical and unemotional investor that finds balance between defensiveness and aggressiveness, particularly during periods of mania, is more likely to find success."
My 2 cents - For individual investors, it's a futile effort to predict the Macro but there's a lot we can glean from what is already happening in the Mkts, and how we can posture our Portfolio for offense/defense (on the edges), especially when there's excessive fear/froth in Mkt
Inability to predict the Macro shouldn't stop us from learning more about Business, Credit & Economic cycles and being aware that they can affect Markets in both directions, and impacting the discount/premiums to the Valuations of Companies (far away from their intrinsic values).

More from Ram Bhupatiraju

More from Investing

THE MONEY PRINTING GAME:

A pleb's guide to using @Keeper_DAO's hiding game to acquire $Rook below market price and arb it like a pro.

Before reading this thread, please read this one to provide a bit of context:
https://t.co/jLeUJRIjLG

Here we go!

1/


Before we really get into the meat of this... please do understand that the hiding game is currently in alpha. Hardware wallets don't work w/ it yet (they will soon).

Sometimes orders go unfilled (improving every day).

2/

A bit more context:

Limit orders on an amm aren't limit orders in the traditional sense. They are actually arbitrage opportunities for keepers. Keepers are bots that operate in the dark forest of ethereum.

3/

Now, let's say you use a service like 1inch or matcha to set your limit orders.

Let's say eth is $900 and you want to sell at $1000.

Eth pumps to $1040 rapidly, a keeper fills your limit order for $1000... everyone is happy. But wait... who gets the extra $40 here?

4/

Hint: it's not you! But what if you could?

This is where the hiding game comes in.
https://t.co/6sBlUWfw00

When you submit a limit order through the hiding game, @Keeper_DAO takes the $40 (or w/e amount) referenced above (this is MEV) and pushes it to the treasury.

5/

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कुंडली में 12 भाव होते हैं। कैसे ज्योतिष द्वारा रोग के आंकलन करते समय कुंडली के विभिन्न भावों से गणना करते हैं आज इस पर चर्चा करेंगे।
कुण्डली को कालपुरुष की संज्ञा देकर इसमें शरीर के अंगों को स्थापित कर उनसे रोग, रोगेश, रोग को बढ़ाने घटाने वाले ग्रह


रोग की स्थिति में उत्प्रेरक का कार्य करने वाले ग्रह, आयुर्वेदिक/ऐलोपैथी/होमियोपैथी में से कौन कारगर होगा इसका आँकलन, रक्त विकार, रक्त और आपरेशन की स्थिति, कौन सा आंतरिक या बाहरी अंग प्रभावित होगा इत्यादि गणना करने में कुंडली का प्रयोग किया जाता है।


मेडिकल ज्योतिष में आज के समय में Dr. K. S. Charak का नाम निर्विवाद रूप से प्रथम स्थान रखता है। उनकी लिखी कई पुस्तकें आज इस क्षेत्र में नए ज्योतिषों का मार्गदर्शन कर रही हैं।
प्रथम भाव -
इस भाव से हम व्यक्ति की रोगप्रतिरोधक क्षमता, सिर, मष्तिस्क का विचार करते हैं।


द्वितीय भाव-
दाहिना नेत्र, मुख, वाणी, नाक, गर्दन व गले के ऊपरी भाग का विचार होता है।
तृतीय भाव-
अस्थि, गला,कान, हाथ, कंधे व छाती के आंतरिक अंगों का शुरुआती भाग इत्यादि।

चतुर्थ भाव- छाती व इसके आंतरिक अंग, जातक की मानसिक स्थिति/प्रकृति, स्तन आदि की गणना की जाती है


पंचम भाव-
जातक की बुद्धि व उसकी तीव्रता,पीठ, पसलियां,पेट, हृदय की स्थिति आंकलन में प्रयोग होता है।

षष्ठ भाव-
रोग भाव कहा जाता है। कुंडली मे इसके तत्कालिक भाव स्वामी, कालपुरुष कुंडली के स्वामी, दृष्टि संबंध, रोगेश की स्थिति, रोगेश के नक्षत्र औऱ रोगेश व भाव की डिग्री इत्यादि।