Excellent article on Investor psychology & Market cycles based on Howard Marks' "Mastering the Market Cycle".

cc: @dmuthuk @Gautam__Baid

One of the best Investing blogs I recently came across. h/t @StableBread 👏

Five of my fav articles⬇️

@dmuthuk @saxena_puru @Gautam__Baid

1⃣On Moats
Network Effect
Intangible Assets
Switching Cost
Economies of Scale
Low Cost Provider
Toll
Cultural

2⃣Crucial Investment Principles You Need to Have
Capital Appreciation
Buy Low, Hold, Sell High
Recognize/Avoid Spec Bubbles
Ignore Noise
Stock Market=Pendulum
Diversify Your investments. Don't overdo it.
DCA
Understand Share Price Value
LT Tax

3⃣How to Read and Analyze Any 10-K Annual Report

Business Summary
Risk Factors
Selected Financial Data
Management's Discussion and Analysis
Financial Statements and Supplementary Data
Notes to Consolidated Financial

4⃣The Beginner's Guide to Dividend Investing

Dividend Yield
Dividend Growth Rate
Dividend Payout Ratio
Ability to Pay Back Debt
Net Debt to EBITDA Ratio
Return on Equity
Credit

5⃣How to Calculate the Intrinsic Value of a Company Like Warren Buffett

Owners Earnings
Growth Rate
Discount Rate
Calculate Intrinsic Value
Scenario Analysis
Margin of

Insights from Philip Fisher. One of the best docs I came across for individual investors.

Phenomenal effort by @SiddharthVoraPL @PLIndiaOnline 👏👏

cc: @dmuthuk @Gautam__Baid @saxena_puru

https://t.co/K19gWk9TFO

Philip Fisher's 15 points, simplified. ⬇️

His Investment strategy and Search strategy. ⬇️

Full scale scuttlebutt is not possible for individual investors (lack of time, resources, contacts), but with efficient search & communication online (tuning out the noise), there are still some ways to do good research.

Good sequence of steps to filter from a wider universe of companies to the few promising ones that meet the criteria. ⬇️

Excellent Checklist for Business, Management and Financial characteristics. ⬇️

I guess there's a reason for why I❤️E-commerce so much. These lessons are as important as the returns.

Sharing with few Fintwit friends. @saxena_puru @FromValue @dhaval_kotecha @richard_chu97 @adventuresinfi @BahamaBen9 @TMFJMo @7Innovator @borrowed_ideas @investing_city

Thank god I didn't wait for consistent GAAP profitability before investing in them (like I do for most other sectors). 😂

Positions : $MELI $AMZN $BABA $SHOP $ETSY $W $SE $CHWY

Watchlist : $JD $PDD $FTCH $MWK

Haven't analyzed much : $JMIA $OZON

E-Commerce is one of those sectors where you have to understand the Business model and lot of non-GAAP (but Business driving) metrics & KPIs.

I'm not an expert by any means, but these are some of the things I broadly think about.

✔️Is the Company a Marketplace (1st party, 3rd party, both?) or a Platform, a combination?

✔️Does it handle inventory?

✔️Does it handle payments in house?

✔️What other services is it offering to Merchants (Logistics, Shipping, Credit, Marketing ...)

✔️What other services is it offering to Buyers (Digital Wallet, fast shipping, loyalty rewards....)

✔️How is the Company leveraging the Marketplace or Data Network effects?

THREAD, PM EXIT STRATEGY

I sometimes get the question “At what price do I liquidate my PM portfolio?” The short answer is:

A) I´ll never sell all of it

and

B) I don´t have a PT. I could start selling at $1900 or at $100000, it depends.

For the longer explanation, 👇

Albert Einstein once famously said “Everything is relative”. I find that quote very useful in the world of investing as well.

First off, my preferred style of investing is more influenced by macro than micro (macroeconomics vs company specific).

That means I often buy a commodity, an ETF or a basket of companies operating in the sector of interest.

I frequently look at certain ratios, or said another way, instrument X relative to instrument Y.

By analyzing historical data, I´ve set up different “ratio milestones” for when history tells me to start unwinding the ratio. As these milestones are triggered, I sell 25% of the relatively stronger instrument. For every additional 10% skew in the ratio, I sell another 25% etc.

This means I´ll never pick the absolute top nor the bottom, but I should extract much of the value while keeping my emotions out of it.

An example where this principle is adopted is shown in the Gold/Silver ratio -graph below.

1) My investment philosophy + Disclaimer -

I'm a full-time investor and my concentrated portfolio is comprised of (primarily founder-led) high growth companies with large addressable markets. I usually look for dominant businesses with a special sauce (moat) which allows..

2)...them to compound their revenues, cash flows and earnings for an extended period of time (multiple years).

Usually (but not always), such disruptive businesses operate in the technology sector and they are led by visionary founders with skin in the game.

When I invest,...

3)...it is always with the intention of holding indefinitely but the business world is unforgiving and capitalism is brutal; so in reality, my average holding period is a few years.

So, when do I sell?

(i) When a company's rev. growth < 15% pa
(ii) When the mgt. deteriorates

4)...(iii) When the 'moat' has been invaded
(iv) When I spot a new opportunity + need cash

Apart from the above scenarios, I remain invested in the companies and allow them to compound over time.

On macro, market timing, forecasts -

I started investing in the late 90s...

5)...and have yet to come across an individual who has accurately and consistently timed the economy and/or the stock market. Not one!

Over the years, many have tried to predict the future and plenty of well meaning people still try, but I've realised that...

RIPPLE’S DUE PROCESS CLAIM:
In @Ripple’s Answer it asserted a defense that the SEC should be barred from claiming #XRP is a security today because it violates Due Process and principles of Fair Notice. Previously, I discussed a similar concept called the doctrine of equitable

estoppel. I explained the law protects a party from being harmed by another party's voluntary conduct. That conduct may be ACTIONS, INACTION, SILENCE, or ACQUIESCENCE. Although the SEC never declared XRP a non-security, for EIGHT YEARS it openly traded in unison with #ETH and

#BTC. During this time, some from the SEC, including Clayton, commented that #BTC and/or #ETH were not securities. For 8 years the SEC’s actions, inaction, silence and acquiescence implied that XRP was also NOT a security. Let’s review a few of the SEC’s actions, inaction,

silence and/or acquiescence related to #XRP. (1) During the period of time the SEC claims XRP was a security, the SEC granted Ripple permission to take a minority stake in MoneyGram (MGI). Ripple invested $50 million purchasing approximately 9% of MGI. The SEC approved this

purchase of MGI with the full knowledge that Ripple would encourage MGI to use XRP as a cross-border utility token related to remittances. The SEC allowed the use of this so-called illegal security to be utilized not just by Ripple, but by MGI. The SEC admitted to this knowledge

Worried about the recent market drop?

Here are 24 top investing quotes from Buffett, Bogle, Graham, and more that can help🧵

"If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn’t be in stocks."

-- John Bogle

"Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble."

-- Warren Buffett

“Individuals who cannot master their emotions are ill-suited to profit from the investment process”

-- Benjamin Graham

"A calm sea does not produce a skilled sailor."

-- Tom Culve

✍️CÓMO LEER EL 10-K✍️

Es el informe más importante y antes de invertir en cualquier empresa debemos leerlo y saber interpretarlo.

Papel, lápiz y café.

El 10-k es un informe completo que detalla las actividades de una empresa durante el año anterior.

Su propósito es brindar a los usuarios, como accionistas o potenciales inversionistas, información sobre las operaciones y desempeño financiero de la empresa.

La estructura de los informes anuales, sin duda, variará según cada empresa, pero la mayoría de los informes anuales generalmente contendrán lo siguiente:

▪️Parte 1: Business and Risk Factors

▪️Parte 2: Financial Data and MD&A

▪️Parte 3: Executive compesation

Vamos a ver cada una de ellas (Subcategorias) y cómo se podría analizar.

1. Business
2. Risk Factors
3. Selected Financial Data
4. The Management Discussions and Analysis (MD&A)
5. Directors, executive officers and corporate governance
6. Executive Compesation

1) BUSINESS

Esta es la primera parte del reporte, y es una de la más importante.

Se habla de la actividad principal de la empresa, de cómo gana dinero, de dónde opera.

También de la visión y misión general de la empresa.