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This is one of the most important threads I’ve read in the last year. Maybe more.

@PaulDoroshenko hits the ball out of the park!

This is exactly what we need to do.

And remember, Harper stacked public service with loyalists. RCMP, judiciary, senate, government departments.


We need Denazification in Canada too!

There can be no tolerance for intolerance.

Many are opining about free speech. In Canada we have freedom of expression and it comes with some caveats. Harmful hate speech is not free.

We have been inundated with hate speech for decades.

It must stop. We must remove the fascists from power and eradicate the platforms they use to build support.

I’ve taught both my children by age 9 what fascism is and what it looks like. I can be done.

School based education is a must to nullify hatred.

But what about the adults? First we remove the ability to indoctrinate through the internet. Mainstream media needs to be purged of nazi sympathizers. And the internet needs regulation. Because some people cannot be trusted to refrain from hate speech.

You got a problem with restrictions on speech, take a look at the US where any form of speech is free. Lying, disinformation, promotion of hatred and psychological manipulation propaganda. And the result is January 6, 2021 attempted “patriot” insurrection.
Is it true that democracies don't go to war with each other?

Sort of. But I wouldn't base public policy on the finding.

Why? Let's turn to the data.

[THREAD]


The idea of a "Democratic Peace" is a widely held view that's been around for a long time.

By 1988, there already existed enough studies on the topic for Jack Levy to famously label Democratic Peace "an empirical law"


The earliest empirical work on the topic was the 1964 report by Dean Babst published in the "Wisconsin Sociologist"


Using the war participation data from Quincy Wright's "A Study of War", Babst produced the following two tables


The tables show that democracies were NOT on both sides (of course, Finland is awkward given that it fought WITH Nazi Germany against the Soviet Union).

Babst expanded his study beyond the World Wars in a 1972 paper in Industrial Research. He confirmed his finding.
Heads up. @INTERPOL_HQ @FBI @anticorruption @UNDPGAIN @AntiCorruptIntl @OCCRP @cafreeland @KingSalman @JoeBiden @JustinTrudeau @HRWcanada @TaxJusticeNet @FairTaxCanada @GA4TJ @antonioguterres @UNODC


The world's richest man, Bezos currently has a net worth of $187.5B — more than a third of which was earned between April and September of

Canada's covid wage subsidiary released in April 2020 worth 71 billion.

The Bank of China (BOC), SNC-Lavalin and WE Charity were recipients of taxpayer-funded the Covid 19 Canadian Emergency Wage Subsidy (CEWS)

Canada has given over 100 contracts to SNC Lavalin since Covid in spite of their continued roll in Operation Carwash corruption scandals in Brazil.
Which metric is a better predictor of the severity of the fall surge in US states?

1) Margin of Democrat victory in Nov 2020 election
or
2) % infected through Sep 1, 2020

Can you guess which plot is which?


The left plot is based on the % infected through Sep 1, 2020. You can see that there is very little correlation with the % infected since Sep 1.

However, there is a *strong* correlation when using the margin of Biden's victory (right).

Infections % from
https://t.co/WcXlfxv3Ah.


This is the strongest single variable I've seen in being able to explain the severity of this most recent wave in each state.

Not past infections / existing immunity, population density, racial makeup, latitude / weather / humidity, etc.

But political lean.

One can argue that states that lean Democrat are more likely to implement restrictions/mandates.

This is valid, so we test this by using the Government Stringency Index made by @UniofOxford.

We also see a correlation, but it's weaker (R^2=0.36 vs 0.50).

https://t.co/BxBBKwW6ta


To avoid look-ahead bias/confounding variables, here is the same analysis but using 2016 margin of victory as the predictor. Similar results.

This basically says that 2016 election results is a better predictor of the severity of the fall wave than intervention levels in 2020!