1/9

While debt-to-GDP ratios already have a limited but very misunderstood use, it seems economists are finding bright new ways of misunderstanding them. Now we say that when nominal interest rates are lower than nominal growth rates, the

1/10

This is a really tough problem to resolve, especially if the massive increase in inflows from the trade and financial accounts are sustained, as I expect they will be well into 2021.

Clearly the PBoC would like to see the RMB gradually...

2/10

strengthen. This would keep financial markets stable and promote rebalancing, but the RMB has already strengthened a lot, and this puts unwanted pressure on exporters and “international circulation”.

Although PBoC reserves have been flat, other state-controlled Chinese...

3/10

banks have bought large amounts of dollars, but this is expensive. If these banks have half a trillion dollars of exposure, for example, they are losing at least $15-17 billion annually on negative carry, plus another $20-30 billion just this year from the rise of the RMB.

4/10

Beijing seems also to be trying other measures to slow the rise. The regulators are relaxing capital controls on outflows. In mid October the PBoC cut to zero the reserve requirement ratio for banks doing FX forward trading. This requirement was created in 2018 to reduce...

5/10

downward pressure on the RMB. In late October it suspended the counter-cyclical factor in RMB fixing, which was introduced in 2017 also to reduce downward currency pressure. But in both cases while the RMB dropped a few pips on the news, it quickly resumed its upward climb.

1/16

It is a little frustrating to see the response many analysts had to the GDP growth data Chinese released today. These numbers aren’t especially good, and they certainly shouldn’t have been surprising. Back in April and May, when most

2/16

were projecting negative or barely positive GDP growth for China in 2020 (the OECD, for example, expected China’s GDP to contract by 3.7%), I insisted that GDP growth for 2020 would be positive, and probably between 2% and 3%.

Today, it was reported as 2.3%. How did...

3/16

I know? Because I knew that while most of the healthy sources of Chinese growth would contract (except for exports, which would expand given Beijing’s intense supply-side response to the impact of Covid-19), Beijing was going to respond to a significant...

4/16

worsening of the healthy parts of its economy by unleashing enough of the unhealthy, non-productive growth it has long tried to constrain – basically real estate and infrastructure investment – in order to achieve as much economic activity as it...

5/16

needed for domestic political ends.

And that’s exactly what happened. While GDP grew by 6.5% in the fourth quarter, even with substantial tailwinds its retail sales measure – a proxy for consumption – was only up 4.6%, and it was down 3.9% overall in 2020.

1/9

Good article. But while growing international criticism and rising trade tensions may have had some impact, as the article suggests, I don’t think they really explain the great reversal in BRI lending of the past few years.

2/9

As I have been writing since 2011, China’s development lending was always likely to follow the pattern of other countries when they first “went out” (e.g. the US in the 1920s, USSR in the 1950s, Japan in the late 1970s). Because of little historical...

3/9

knowledge and no previous experience, an early rapid rise in development lending would be driven mainly by underestimating risk and an overestimation of their own business "success" in making loans, and would of course be further supported by geopolitical ambitions.

4/9

This combination would inevitably lead to bad lending decisions, followed just as inevitably by debt restructuring, loan losses, and a contraction in development lending. In the 1920s, for example, the US set off quite explicitly and aggressively to displace England in...

5/9

Latin America, and American businesses and banks assumed they “understood” Latin America much better than the English did, in spite of the vast English experience there, but their early displacement of British lending only resulted in the huge loan losses of the 1930s.

1/11

An article worth thinking about: “As changes to the world structure accelerate, China’s rule is in sharp contrast with the turmoil in the West,” says Beijing.

I agree, but I draw a different conclusion. The world is certainly currently

2/11

through "a period of turbulent change", in Beijing’s words, and great structural adjustments, but usually when that happens, what matters in the long run is not how stable a system seems but rather how successfully political, economic and social institutions adjust to...

3/11

the new conditions. In the past these adjustments have almost always been messy, chaotic, and disheartening to most, but ultimately they were necessary even if we were unable to judge them so at the time.

I would argue that the world today is undergoing both a reversal...

4/11

and rejection of the current model of globalization and an urgent need for most countries in the world, including China, to initiate a major rebalancing of the way income and wealth (and ultimately political power) is distributed, but there are few if any historical...

5/11

precedents in which this level of restructuring and rebalancing have been neat or orderly.

Beijing's response, which is to do whatever it takes to maintain stability, may look good in the short term, as this strategy always does, but if it prevents the necessary...

1/10

The latest IMF report on China was released yesterday and provides a lot of good information and intelligent insight on the Chinese economy. The IMF’s measure of China’s adjusted fiscal deficit (including estimated off-budget

2/10

spending) is projected to rise to 18.2% of GDP in 2020 from 12.6% in 2019. The authors correctly note the worrying surge in debt and warn that Beijing must continue to try to contain financial stability risks, but I notice that they are projecting average GDP...

3/10

growth of just over 6% between 2012 and 2025, including a downward revision of their 2021 forecast from 8.2% to 7.9% (which I still think is a little high).

As I’ve long argued, it will be impossible for China both to control the surge in debt and to achieve growth...

4/10

targets above the real underlying growth rate of the economy, which I suspect is 2-3% at best. I know the IMF is constrained in what it is able to say about the Chinese economy if it wants to remain part of the advisory process, but I do think that after 10 years...

5/10

of watching this game we should be a lot more explicit about the relationship between unreasonably high GDP growth targets and high credit growth. There really is no point in advising Beijing to get financial risks under control while at the same time approving...

Ok. I began this journey because of Pizz'gat3, deehate cabal, Trump etc. Now it has led to RH- bloodtypes, (of which I am one). This is another rabbit hole, and suddenly close to home. Joining the dots of info I have read so far, other RH- stories and my own history (pt1)

-putting aside all of the theories of Nephilim, reptilians, aliens, etc. I think I was an experiment as a child. I was adopted by a military person and had an extremely traumatic and abusive upbringing. Watching trans videos has made me remember how I was forced to dress (pt2)

in boy clothes as a child. My hair was always cut off short. My sister wore all of the pink clothes, long hair & ribbons. I had the blue, the dungarees, the shit hacked off hair cut, and was given marbles, train sets, and racing cars to play with. I was effectively a tomboy (pt3)

This remained with me through to this day. I am still largely interested in male activities. But I did get ridiculously into pink and all girly things, to the point of now being awake and realising it is childish and mkultra programming. I was sexually and physically abused (pt4)

I also wonder, as I have medical issues and was given meds my whole life and only ever visited military hospitals & medical healthcare in my childhood, what meds was I given? I do have an extremely strong physique for a female. It is often commented on how unnatural it is (pt 5)

I am bemused by those who demand that we repay the UK government’s debt. It makes me wonder, do they know what it is? And how do they think it can be repaid? And do they appreciate the consequences? A thread is coming on......bear with me, because I think you need to know this.

First, what is the UK government’s debt? I’ve immersed myself in this issue and can confidently say the Office for National Statistics’s figures are wrong, most especially because they claim that the UK government is in debt by owing money to itself. That’s not possible.

Whatever the Office for National Statistics like to claim, money you owe yourself is not debt, and so quantitative easing cancels about £800 billion of UK national debt right now. There are other mistakes in their numbers, but I’ll just stick with this one for the moment.

So, if the ONS claim the national debt is around £2.1 trillion at present, it isn’t. Allowing for the UK government owning around £800 billion of its own debt the figure reduces to maybe £1.3 trillion, give or take a bit. But that, I hasten to add, is not the end of the story.

It’s important to understand that the ONS includes some things few would think of as debt in their figures. For example, around £200 billion (£0.2 trillion) of National Savings balances are included in the national debt. Whoever knew Premium Bond holders were such a burden?

A brief review of the goings-on in #GOP #Indiana:

Our senators are too busy telling the #BigLie to tell the truth about the former president's attack on our democracy.

My rep isn't standing up for much of anything but wants Nancy Pelosi to answer for the breach of the Capitol.

The #GOP super majority in the #IN legislature is now

eliminating gun permits.

removing protections from our few remaining wetlands.

limiting charitable cash bail.

taking over the Indianapolis police force.

removing the few protections Indy tenants have from bad landlords

continuing to allow 'fun' coyote hunts for prizes.

limiting the governor's ability to deal with emergencies like COVID19 - because of course! Indiana only has 12000+ #COVID19 deaths so overreach is an issue.

trying to undo Indy referendum's to upgrade our bus routes.

while continuing efforts to limit women's access to reproductive healthcare, w/ a forced ultrasound law going into effect just a couple weeks ago.

And then there are the coal ash ponds.

@IndyStarSarah reports on our water quality being up for

from the article by @IndyStarSarah:

"Ash from Indiana's coal-burning power plants is contaminating groundwater across the state, rendering it unsafe to drink. But unlike some other states, Indiana is not requiring utility companies to remove the toxic ash from leaky pits."

N714m Scam: Witness Narrates How N159m was Traced to Turaki’s Account

The trial of former Minister of Special Duties and Inter-governmental Affairs, Kabiru Tanimu Turaki continued today Thursday, February 18, 2021 before Justice Inyang Ekwo of the Federal High Court, Abuja...

...with the twelfth prosecution witness, PW12, Bello Hamma Adama narrating to the court how N159,104,000 (One Hundred and Fifty-nine Million, One Hundred and Four Thousand Naira)...

...out of the N329,104,000 (Three Hundred and Twenty-nine Million, One Hundred and Four Thousand Naira) that was meant for the sensitization of Muslim youths was diverted.

Bello, an operative attached to the Chairman's Monitoring Unit of the EFCC, while being led in evidence by M. S. Abubakar, drew the court attention to the statement of the second defendant (exhibit C1-C2 on page 8)...

...in which he admitted transferring the said sum on the instructions of the first defendant.