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Saved by @Alex1Powell

1/ A thread for all parents and caregivers about the dangers of mass testing and the continued neglect of young people in this crisis.

 2/ Young people have been neglected and they are suffering see https://t.co/btxlm8CSZG for more information.
3/ The main reason for https://t.co/btxlm8CSZG (and an Open Letter I organised to Gavin Williamson in the summer to urge him to open schools) is to urge the government to take children into account when making decisions.
4/ Government are still not doing this – see recent articles from me https://t.co/aQNO9I2KGE
https://t.co/h0U68Hv20x
5/ So, we parents must protect our children. The single biggest thing we can do to stop this crisis is to refuse mass testing which is driving damaging restrictive policies: https://t.co/NNGjKID1WL
6/ Leading academics including @deeksj @angelaraffle @AllysonPollock urge the government to stop this unethical practice which is not a test for infectiousness. https://t.co/CaieJ7nqK8
7/ For more information on the serious pitfalls of testing see Dr Clare Craig’s work who is a pathologist (the people that do the testing) https://t.co/uSvXua1JDR
8/ Recent findings from university mass testing showed no covid-19 to be found anywhere – the small number of positive tests detected were found to be false positives when double checked. (Saying the test was positive, when, in fact it was not.)
9/ The testing, which is inaccurate and misleading, is keeping society in damaging lockdowns and tiers which are not evidence-based and cause enormous damage to other health conditions (e.g. cancer), mental health and the economy.
10/ See https://t.co/LqF1Ggs16C and https://t.co/fgo0G9JH9s for damage of lockdowns data.
11/ At least excess deaths 21,000 in the UK were caused by lockdown the first English lockdown, not covid-19. https://t.co/lx38DqwsAP
12/ Recent global data shows that keeping schools open, not closing them, reduces covid-19 transmission, yet schools are using tests to shut down entire year groups, even large parts of schools. https://t.co/Q3R11HJmuE https://t.co/boYtNImeYc
13/ Our children will bear the brunt of the economic fall out for years to come. All for a virus with a 99.97% recovery rate and average age of death of 82 years.
14/ You won’t hear these statistics much in the main stream media because Ofcom have been censoring debate on covid-19 policies.
15/ I am aware of course that people have lost loved ones to covid-19 and this is, of course, very sad but to focus on one health issue at the expense of all others is folly and will have enormous repercussions for our children.
16/ A new website https://t.co/Ah0ZT0SP6Q is now bringing LEGAL JUSTICE to UK citizens for the devastating harm caused by lockdowns to families and businesses.
17/ This is long but the stakes for our children are very high. I am more than happy to discuss any of these issues. Please pass this message on to any parent/caregiver you feel needs to hear this. End.

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Survivorship Bias 101

History is written by the victors. But if we exclusively focus on these successes, we allow survivorship bias to distort our understanding of the world.

But what is "survivorship bias" and how does it work?

Here's Survivorship Bias 101!

👇👇👇


1/ First, a few definitions.

Survivorship bias is the logical error of concentrating on survivors (successes) and ignoring casualties (failures).

When we do so, we miss the true "base rates" of survival (the actual probability of success) and arrive at flawed conclusions.

2/ When we completely ignore failures, we lose our ability to correctly identify the differences between successes and failures.

Put simply, exclusively focusing on successes may actually inhibit our ability to identify (and replicate) the actions that led to such success.


3/ Cicero wrote on the topic over 2,000 years ago.

An atheist named Diagoras is shown portraits of people who prayed and were saved from death at sea as proof of God's existence.

Diagoras replies, "I see those who were saved, but where are those painted who were shipwrecked?"


4/ Cicero cuts right to the point - we cannot conclude that prayer led to being saved from the sea if we ignore those who prayed and then drowned.

Survivorship bias can lead to a deeply-flawed understanding of cause-and-effect relationships.

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Everything was going smoothly for the SNP until these posts started appearing. I began to question what was going on?

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LEEDS LEADS CLIMATE BREAKDOWN

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For “what Leeds needs is a premier-league football club and a premier-league airport”
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1/ There was a lot of "I do care about climate change, BUT" – followed by a lot of blah blah. Blah blah economic growth. Blah blah connectivity. Blah blah competitiveness. Blah blah Manchester. Blah blah Westminster. Blah blah offsetting. Blah blah electric planes. Blah blah blah

2/ Also a lot of "I do have sympathy for residents suffering from planes flying over their roofs at night, BUT” - followed by more blah blah.
One councillor kindly offered his advice: “the way to less noise is more planes”. Right, Sherlock. Want to try that in your backyard?🤦‍♂️

3/ The true sympathies were revealed at the end. The Panel's priority was not the well-being of those living under the flight path, nor the lives and livelihoods of threatened by climate breakdown. Their priority was a bigger, noisier airport, with a terminal in bronze-champagne.

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