Are you excited for our December episode of Kairos?
This time we're exploring 🤹🏽‍♂‍Financial stability 🤹🏽‍♂‍

#‍Financialstability

It's been more than 60 years since Philip Fisher wrote the investment classic in "Common Stocks & Uncommon Profits".

The book is famous for the 15 questions which one must ask before investing in any company.

THREAD

These are the questions which help us in determining the "quality" of a business.

Warren Buffett has time and again said that he is 85% Graham and 15% Fisher.

Let's have a look at these 15 questions.

P.S.: Stocks listed in this thread are not to be taken as recos.

1. Does the company have products or services with sufficient market potential to make possible a sizable increase in sales for at least several years?

The important point which you must note here is that you must not just look at the size of the company.

You must also look at the opportunity size of the market in which the company exists.

Let's take the case of HDFC Bank. Although it is a huge bank, but it controls just 9% of the total credit market in India, suggesting an enormous opportunity for it to capture.

2. Does the management have a determination to continue to develop products or processes that will still further increase total sales potentials when the growth potentials of currently attractive product lines have largely been exploited?

!!Decode/Thread (12/31/20)

Well this could be the LAST Decode/Thread of the Year ...

... Have a Happy and Safe New Years Eve ...

...

Our intuitions often leads us astray. A good reminder: study counterintuitive math and economic results.

Here are 9 of them 🧵

The Birthday Paradox

In a room of 23 people, there's a >50% chance that 2 people share the same birthday.

This type of probabilistic thinking does *not* come naturally to many people.

The Coastline Paradox

Fractal geometry is also confounding:

The coastline of a landmass does not have a well-defined measurement. As the unit of measurement gets smaller (eg. from KMs to cm), the length increases without limit.

Winner's Curse

In an auction, the winning bid will usually exceed the intrinsic worth of an item leading to a significant overpay (and negative net profit for the winner).

Braess's Paradox

Removing an extra road can make everyone's commute time faster.

Why? The existence of a "fast" road leads to congestion because everyone uses it. If you remove the shortcut, traffic flows better.

Investing in stocks is boring, but it can help in creating wealth for many investors.

Sharing 4 Simple Investment Strategies (sold as a ₹ 50,000 course!).

For guidance, shared screeners for all the strategies also.

Shared a bonus trading strategy at the end.

A thread 🧵:

1/ All Time High Breakout:

Stock that breaks the uptrend are the one that can give massive upmove.
These stocks are considered as strong stocks in the market.

Timeframe should be monthly and if price closes above ATH on any day you can enter.

Example 1:

Bajaj Finance gave a breakout above ATH at around 55 and then it moved up till 5000 levels.

Total returns of 9000% in 10 years.

Simple Strategy, isn't it?

Example 2:

Reliance Chart.

It gave breakout above its All Time High level after 10 years and then never looking back.

Price moved up from 700 to 2600.
Returns of 270% in five years.

How to Follow Stoploss?

Initially keep stoploss at swing low on monthly chart and trail your stoploss accordingly to enjoy massive upmove.

Other ways of Trailing Stoploss can be using 200 EMA or any other indicator.

Palantir's 2020 Q4 Earnings call goes live in half an hour.

The waiting room is now up.

In the mean time, you can read their just-filed

Which is essentially just a re-direct to this press

Palantir's Consolidated Statement of Operations is pretty interesting.

They lost more than twice as much money in 2020 ($1.17B) as in 2019 ($580M). Despite a $12.6M tax benefit in 2020 vs. $12.4M tax provision in 2019.

But stonks.