He achieved success as a banker—which he attributed to the formidable connections made through his family and employer.
At a young age, he had learned of the impact of proximity to power...
The Cantillon Effect is the most important economic concept you’ve never heard of.
Here's a breakdown of what it is (and why you should care):
He achieved success as a banker—which he attributed to the formidable connections made through his family and employer.
At a young age, he had learned of the impact of proximity to power...
It was widely circulated in manuscript form, though it was not published until 1755, well after his death.
In other words, the "flow path" of the new money matters!
Broadly, Cantillon observed that new money creates distributional effects based on where it enters the system.
The Cantillon Effect was born...
Imagine you live in a tiny, enclosed island society.
One morning, you wake up to find a package on your doorstep.
You open it up and see that it has $1 million in it.
Great! But now what?
You now secretly have $1 million new dollars.
Naturally, you start spending it (and maybe investing it) quickly.
Prices are still low, because no one knows these new dollars exist yet!
Your standard of living improves rapidly.
But now, people see and feel this new money flowing through the system.
Prices begin to rise as supply has yet to "catch up" to the new demand. It takes time.
The sellers of the goods—who received your cash—now face rising prices when they consume.
Same with the workers who produced the goods.
There were distributional effects—the flow path mattered!
Proximity to the source of new money is relevant—the entry point and flow path have distributional consequences.
So why should you care today?
It's a useful lens through which to evaluate the monetary and fiscal response to COVID—and its potential impact.
The Federal Reserve's escalating asset purchases have an injection point at the top.
Direct stimulus checks—on the other hand—have an injection point at the bottom.
The former was much larger $$$ than the latter.
Those with a significant portion of their net worth in equities, real estate, or similar assets have benefitted significantly over the last 18 months.
Inflation—particularly across food and energy prices—will have a disproportionate impact on their standard of living.
But perhaps more importantly, it's also running disproportionately hot—as exhibited in this chart from @Business this week.
So what do you think? Was Cantillon right?
And what can we do about it?
This should not be a political debate.
It should be a grounded discussion we all have when we consider the impact of various monetary and fiscal policies proposed by our leaders.
The November market is below.
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More from Sahil Bloom
Short Squeeze 101
If you follow financial markets (or if you watch Billions), you've heard the phrase "short squeeze" used quite frequently.
But what is a "short squeeze" and how does it work?
Here's Short Squeeze 101!
👇👇👇
1/ First, the basics.
The "short" in "short squeeze" refers to the concept of short selling.
The basics are covered in my thread below.
https://t.co/xecJYNCxMs
TL;DR - short selling is a way of betting against a stock - i.e. betting that its price will decline.
2/ "Short interest" is a measure of how heavily an asset is shorted by the market.
It is the total number of shares that have been sold short (borrowed and sold), but have not yet been covered (bought and returned).
It is usually measured as a % of the # of shares outstanding.
3/ A "short squeeze" occurs when a heavily-shorted asset experiences a rapid upward price movement.
When this happens, short sellers may be forced to close their short positions (i.e. buy the stock and return it to the broker), further accelerating the upward price movement.
4/ Let's look at a simple example to show this in action.
We will use Tesla, one of the most heavily-shorted stocks in the world.
Imagine the stock price is $1,000 per share. This seems crazy. Ricky Rational decides to short the stock at this level.
If you follow financial markets (or if you watch Billions), you've heard the phrase "short squeeze" used quite frequently.
But what is a "short squeeze" and how does it work?
Here's Short Squeeze 101!
👇👇👇
1/ First, the basics.
The "short" in "short squeeze" refers to the concept of short selling.
The basics are covered in my thread below.
https://t.co/xecJYNCxMs
TL;DR - short selling is a way of betting against a stock - i.e. betting that its price will decline.
1/ Short Selling 101
— Sahil Bloom (@SahilBloom) July 6, 2020
With the markets continuing to rally, there has been more talk of \u201cshorting\u201d or \u201cshort selling\u201d stocks.
But what does that mean and how does it work?
Here\u2019s a quick educational primer: Short Selling 101 pic.twitter.com/JTrJmuY7fI
2/ "Short interest" is a measure of how heavily an asset is shorted by the market.
It is the total number of shares that have been sold short (borrowed and sold), but have not yet been covered (bought and returned).
It is usually measured as a % of the # of shares outstanding.
3/ A "short squeeze" occurs when a heavily-shorted asset experiences a rapid upward price movement.
When this happens, short sellers may be forced to close their short positions (i.e. buy the stock and return it to the broker), further accelerating the upward price movement.
4/ Let's look at a simple example to show this in action.
We will use Tesla, one of the most heavily-shorted stocks in the world.
Imagine the stock price is $1,000 per share. This seems crazy. Ricky Rational decides to short the stock at this level.
Shared a lot of wins publicly in 2021, so it feels appropriate to share the losses just as publicly.
Here are my 10 biggest Ls from 2021 (and what I learned from each one):
Dopamine Addiction
Humans were not made for social media—the dopamine hits are dangerous.
I fell victim.
On several occasions, I found myself constantly refreshing my notifications on a viral thread.
It was gross.
I’m learning to physically force separation to avoid it.
Hustle Culture Fail
I spent the better part of the last decade as a hustle culture aficionado.
Then I burned myself out and was totally incapable of thinking creatively.
I made a change. Now I:
• Work like a lion
• Sleep 8 hours
• Take more walks
My life & work have 10Xed.
Solana Fail
I invested in Solana early and was riding high when it hit $30+ in April—10X+ on my investment.
I sold it and thought I was the next Warren Buffett.
Then it hit $100, $200, & $250—as I stubbornly sat on the sidelines refusing to re-enter.
I am not Warren Buffett.
The Hedonic Treadmill
I tweeted this in May—and then failed to practice what I preached.
Every win felt a bit less exciting. It’s part of our biology, but it was no way to live.
Measure internally, not externally.
Here are my 10 biggest Ls from 2021 (and what I learned from each one):
Dopamine Addiction
Humans were not made for social media—the dopamine hits are dangerous.
I fell victim.
On several occasions, I found myself constantly refreshing my notifications on a viral thread.
It was gross.
I’m learning to physically force separation to avoid it.
Hustle Culture Fail
I spent the better part of the last decade as a hustle culture aficionado.
Then I burned myself out and was totally incapable of thinking creatively.
I made a change. Now I:
• Work like a lion
• Sleep 8 hours
• Take more walks
My life & work have 10Xed.
Solana Fail
I invested in Solana early and was riding high when it hit $30+ in April—10X+ on my investment.
I sold it and thought I was the next Warren Buffett.
Then it hit $100, $200, & $250—as I stubbornly sat on the sidelines refusing to re-enter.
I am not Warren Buffett.
The Hedonic Treadmill
I tweeted this in May—and then failed to practice what I preached.
Every win felt a bit less exciting. It’s part of our biology, but it was no way to live.
Measure internally, not externally.
The Hedonic Treadmill is real.
— Sahil Bloom (@SahilBloom) May 21, 2021
Humans have a tendency to quickly return to a baseline level of happiness after positive events.
Step off the treadmill.
Focus on increasing your happiness baseline, not on the height or frequency of the spikes above it.
More from Finance
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“We don’t negotiate salaries” is a negotiation tactic.
Always. No, your company is not an exception.
A tactic I don’t appreciate at all because of how unfairly it penalizes low-leverage, junior employees, and those loyal enough not to question it, but that’s negotiation for you after all. Weaponized information asymmetry.
Listen to Aditya
And by the way, you should never be worried that an offer would be withdrawn if you politely negotiate.
I have seen this happen *extremely* rarely, mostly to women, and anyway is a giant red flag. It suggests you probably didn’t want to work there.
You wish there was no negotiating so it would all be more fair? I feel you, but it’s not happening.
Instead, negotiate hard, use your privilege, and then go and share numbers with your underrepresented and underpaid colleagues. […]
Always. No, your company is not an exception.
A tactic I don’t appreciate at all because of how unfairly it penalizes low-leverage, junior employees, and those loyal enough not to question it, but that’s negotiation for you after all. Weaponized information asymmetry.
Listen to Aditya
"we don't negotiate salaries" really means "we'd prefer to negotiate massive signing bonuses and equity grants, but we'll negotiate salary if you REALLY insist" https://t.co/80k7nWAMoK
— Aditya Mukerjee, the Otterrific \U0001f3f3\ufe0f\u200d\U0001f308 (@chimeracoder) December 4, 2018
And by the way, you should never be worried that an offer would be withdrawn if you politely negotiate.
I have seen this happen *extremely* rarely, mostly to women, and anyway is a giant red flag. It suggests you probably didn’t want to work there.
You wish there was no negotiating so it would all be more fair? I feel you, but it’s not happening.
Instead, negotiate hard, use your privilege, and then go and share numbers with your underrepresented and underpaid colleagues. […]
"I lied about my basic beliefs in order to keep a prestigious job. Now that it will be zero-cost to me, I have a few things to say."
We know that elite institutions like the one Flier was in (partial) charge of rely on irrelevant status markers like private school education, whiteness, legacy, and ability to charm an old white guy at an interview.
Harvard's discriminatory policies are becoming increasingly well known, across the political spectrum (see, e.g., the recent lawsuit on discrimination against East Asian applications.)
It's refreshing to hear a senior administrator admits to personally opposing policies that attempt to remedy these basic flaws. These are flaws that harm his institution's ability to do cutting-edge research and to serve the public.
Harvard is being eclipsed by institutions that have different ideas about how to run a 21st Century institution. Stanford, for one; the UC system; the "public Ivys".
As a dean of a major academic institution, I could not have said this. But I will now. Requiring such statements in applications for appointments and promotions is an affront to academic freedom, and diminishes the true value of diversity, equity of inclusion by trivializing it. https://t.co/NfcI5VLODi
— Jeffrey Flier (@jflier) November 10, 2018
We know that elite institutions like the one Flier was in (partial) charge of rely on irrelevant status markers like private school education, whiteness, legacy, and ability to charm an old white guy at an interview.
Harvard's discriminatory policies are becoming increasingly well known, across the political spectrum (see, e.g., the recent lawsuit on discrimination against East Asian applications.)
It's refreshing to hear a senior administrator admits to personally opposing policies that attempt to remedy these basic flaws. These are flaws that harm his institution's ability to do cutting-edge research and to serve the public.
Harvard is being eclipsed by institutions that have different ideas about how to run a 21st Century institution. Stanford, for one; the UC system; the "public Ivys".
