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The Review: GW 19 - A thread

Hi everyone, welcome to the latest edition of “The Review” where I look at the double GW gone by, De Bruyne and Vardy replacements in detail:

#FPL #FPLCommunity @OfficialFPL

(Data taken from @FFScout and @FFH_HQ with consent)

 Before I start, I'd like to introduce you to this game called Fantasy5. It’s free to enter, with a £10k weekly prize. All you have to do is to pick 5 players that you think will beat their Fantasy points target. I find it to be a lot of fun! Link here:

https://t.co/heKE1cB7N8
At this point, I’d also like to mention that I post about FPL on my Instagram too, so if you have an Instagram account, follow up here!

https://t.co/1tZ92vBXIT
Q: Is Son the obvious De Bruyne replacement? Is it worth doubling up on Spurs attack and if not, who to choose if picking one?

I think we’re at that point where avoiding Heung Min Son despite having the option to get him for De Bruyne if you don’t own him already has to be...
... classified as overthinking. I say that because Son over the past three GWs is top for xG and big chances in the league which is incredible given that Son featured only thrice during that period while some other players played four times. Son is averaging two big chances...
... per game during this run and has managed to accumulate at least one big chance in his previous three games. Granted the fixtures were easy but his big chance numbers have gone up even by his own high standards:
Son GW 17-19 v Son GW 1-16

Mins per chance created: 38.43 v 46.67
Mins per big chance created: 134.5 v 252
Mins per shot in the box: 38.43 v 70
Mins per big chance: 44.83 v 105
Mins per expected involvement (xGi): 113.5 v 209.3
Liverpool may be a tough fixture on paper it will suit Son as he will get plenty of space to exploit behind Trent on the left. Besides, Liverpool’s defensive numbers away are fairly poor compared to their numbers at home so I’d expect Spurs to get quite a few big chances:
Liverpool (Home 20/21) vs Liverpool (Away 20/21)

Shots conceded inside the box per game: 5.1 vs 5.44
Big chances conceded per game: 1.7 vs 2.33

Only seven teams have conceded more big chances away from home than Liverpool this season. Hence, I think that Son is a great...
... shout this week as all sorts of underlying numbers are screaming points for him. I don’t think I’d double up with Kane given the fixtures Spurs have though (LIV bha CHE WBA mci). I think one of Son or Kane is enough for now. I’d pick Son – here is why:
Son v Kane (last 6 matches):

Chances created: 13 v 6
Big chances created: 4 v 3
Shots in the box: 11 v 13
Big chances: 8 v 4
Mins per expected involvement (xGi): 149.7 v 173.8
Q: Who is the best Man City midfielder to own? Is it worth investing in either or is triple Man City defence the way to go?

I first look at Sterling’s numbers this season in comparison with his previous averages to assess the level he is playing at:
Sterling 19/20 v Sterling 20/21

Mins per shots in the box: 32 v 48
Mins per big chance: 80.6 v 150
Mins per expected involvement (xGi): 105 v 165.6

As you can see, Sterling’s numbers have witnessed a significant decline from last season. He seems to be more of a nostalgic...
... pick these days as his underlying numbers don't justify his premium price. I now look at some of his recent numbers in comparison to the other Man City midfielders:
Gündoğan v Foden v Bernardo v Sterling (GW 13-19)

Mins per chance created: 45 v 26 v 64 v 48
Mins per shot in the box: 37 v 33 v 73 v 48
Mins per big chance: 99 v 183 v 255 v 133
Mins per expected involvement (xGi): 152 v 174 v 259 v 131
Gündoğan seems to be matching Sterling more or less for underlying statistics over recent times, which makes it all the more difficult to justify Sterling as he costs almost twice as much. Foden’s numbers are okay as well, but he seems to be at the highest risk of a random...
... Pep benching so I wouldn’t be considering him. Bernardo, meanwhile, is not posting underlying numbers good enough to warrant investment. Gündoğan would be my pick here – over the past 7 GWs, he is topping the charts among Man City players for shots in the box and big...
... chances. During the same run, he has scored five times and now averages 5.1 FPL points per game this season. He seems to be safe in terms of minutes too, he has started 11 times and been subbed on just twice this season. With penalties and an affordable price tag in...
... his locker, he is a safe option for investment. I personally don’t think tripling up on the Man City defence is a bad option either – particularly for those FPL managers who have a wildcard in-tact. Stones and Dias have now started eleven games together in which Man City...
... have won ten and drawn one, having conceded just one goal in the process which is incredible in itself. Cancelo continues to flirt with huge hauls and I remain (stupidly!) steadfast in my belief that a big FPL haul will come soon. Stones and Dias will carry some degree...
... of goal threat due to the sheer numbers of corners that Man City tend to get – they were awarded 27 corners in this double GW alone which was eight more than what any other team managed. With favorable fixtures (wba SHU bur) on the cards the...
... triple up could be a decent idea. However, it does put one at risk of fielding ten men should there be a random postponement.
Q: What is wrong with Liverpool and is it worth holding onto Mohamed Salah?

Liverpool GW 1-9 v Liverpool GW 10-19

Mins per shots in the box: 7.79 v 9.57
Mins per chance created: 5.4 v 6.4
Mins per big chance: 25.8 v 49.8

The numbers tell their own story...
From GW1-9, Liverpool were ranked top in the league for xG and big chances but from GW 10-19, they don’t even feature in the top seven when it comes to the same underlying stats which is quite telling about their struggles. I further bifurcate the data into home and away numbers:
Liverpool GW 10-19 Home v Liverpool GW 10-19 Away

Mins per shots in the box: 8.18 v 11.54
Mins per chance: 6.16 v 11.25
Mins per big chance: 75 v 34.6

What I read from this is that of late, Liverpool are more suited to playing on the counter away from home rather than...
... against deep blocks at home where they still tend to create a decent amount of chances but are struggling for form due to lack of quality chance creation. Even despite their recent struggles, Liverpool were ranked in the top three for big chances and xG per game in away...
... matches from GW 10-19 so their underlying numbers away from home aren’t too big of a worry. Liverpool’s next two fixtures (tot whu) are both away from home so I don’t think I’d be selling Salah at this point. In the league, he has a better minute per big chance ratio away...
... from home (90 mins per big chance) compared to his home ratio (∼125.3 mins per big chance) anyway so these away games should suit him. And I wrote this before his brace against Man United!
Q: How will the loss of Vardy impact the Leicester team? Maddison or Barnes?

Maddison v Barnes (last 4 matches):

Chances created: 9 v 4
Big chances created: 0 v 0
Shots in the box: 3 v 8
Big chances: 1 v 3
Penalty area touches: 9 v 18
Expected involvement (xGi): 1.1 v 2.36
As you can see, Barnes over the past 4 GWs is out-stating Maddison in almost all key departments. He possesses more direct goal threat which can be seen over the span of the season as well:
Maddison v Barnes (over the season):

Mins per chance created: 34.8 v 114.33
Mins per big chance created: 1115 v 1372
Mins per shot in the box: 85.8 v 47.3
Mins per big chance: 1115 v 196
Mins per expected involvement (xGi): 309 v 227
There has been a lot of talk about Maddison, but his numbers over the season have been dire to say the least. He has registered just a single big chance and created one big chance for his team-mates which is not something you’d expect from someone of his quality...
... Personally, for someone who reads stats week in week out, I find Leicester incredibly hard to read. To put things into context, Leicester are not even in the top 10 teams for xG at home but at the same time they are ranked second for xG away from home. Despite being...
... second for xG away from home, Leicester are not even in the top ten for non-penalty xG away from home (even Palace have a better non-penalty xG than Leicester away!) which tells me that Leicester’s away numbers are inflated because they get a lot of penalties away from...
... home – perhaps due to their counter attacking style. The loss of Vardy will impact this counter attacking style and I’m sure we’ll witness a drop in attacking numbers. It’s hard to say how the loss of Vardy will impact Vardy and Barnes – however, I run a comparison...
... between them based on how they fared the last four times Vardy didn’t play:

Maddison v Barnes (previous 4 matches played without Vardy):

Mins per chance created: 39.4 v 86.25
Mins per shot in the box: 197 v 57.5
Mins per big chance: 197 v 345
Granted that the sample size is small, but numbers for either without Vardy are poor. It’s also worth noting that Leicester’s average xG without Vardy drops to ∼1.13 per game as compared to ∼1.52 with him.
Q: How will the return of Barkley affect Jack Grealish? Is it worth keeping Ollie Watkins?

Villa are in the top five for xG, xG non-penalty and big chances over the season so their assets continue to offer good value. Since Ross Barkley has returned to match fitness, El Ghazi...
... will probably not be involved in the starting eleven for the Villa side. I look at El Ghazi’s impact on Grealish’s numbers:
Grealish with and without El Ghazi:

Mins per shot inside the box: 56.2 vs 45
Mins per big chance: 450 vs 216
Mins per chance created: 17.3 vs 30.86
Mins per big chance created: 90 vs 154.29
Mins per penalty area touch: 15.5 vs 11.25
Simplest explanation of given underlying numbers is that without El Ghazi in the team, Grealish takes on a more direct role and is more involved in the opposition's penalty area hence increasing his goal threat. With El Ghazi in the team, Grealish tends to play the role of a...
... playmaker and allows El Ghazi to do the shooting. Further, with El Ghazi not starting, it is likely that Grealish will be on penalties. More evidence of this is shown by another computation I made. Without El Ghazi in the team, Grealish took 20.87% of Villa's shots inside...
... the box. However, during El Ghazi's spell in the team, that number dropped down to 12.3% for Grealish while El Ghazi carried the chief goal threat accumulating 21.53% of the shots in the box in the Villa team. Ollie Watkins continues to offer good value too. Over the...
... past three GWs, Watkins is second for big chances and over the season Watkins has the best expected involvement (xGi) in the entire Villa side. In summation, given the run of mixed fixtures (bur, sou, WHU, ARS) and the analysis, I would recommend...
... having one Villa asset in the team. Doubling up might be overkill, but having one asset could be fruitful.
Q: Who is the best captain this week and why?

The absence of De Bruyne makes this a fairly straightforward one this week. Bruno Fernandes being the likeliest goal scorer according to the bookies makes him a relatively safe choice. No player has created more chances at home...
... in the league too, which also helps Bruno in bonus accumulation. Hence with goal threat, assist and bonus potential all in his locker, Bruno looks to be the standout option this GW. There’s a lot been said about the Bruno with and without Pogba theory as to how the...
... Frenchman reduces Bruno’s ceiling. It might be true to some extent but it isn’t enough to put me off from captaining Bruno – even with Pogba on the field, Bruno has created two big chances and registered a big chance in his past two matches. There’s also the fact...
... that Ramsdale, along with Patricio and Guaita, is among the worst three keepers in terms of variance between actual goals conceded and expected goals conceded which is also likely to help Bruno’s case...
West Brom (under Bilic) vs West Brom (under Big Sam)

Shots inside the box conceded per game: 10.7 vs 11.2
Big chances conceded per game: 2.69 vs 2.8

De Bruyne if fit would have made a very compelling case for captaincy as West Brom are still as leaky under Big Sam as they...
... were under Bilic. Even though the numbers suggest that City will score quite a few, it’s hard to make a case for any of their midfield options as none of them seem to be as reliable as you’d want your captaincy picks to be. Could be a case of high risk, high reward though.
Q: Who is the best Jamie Vardy replacement?

Vardy’s owners have every right to feel hard done by this week – not only did he register two successive blanks despite accumulating eight shots in the box (including two big chances and one big chance created) in the double GW but...
... now finds himself sidelined. My first choice for a replacement would be Bamford, who I have written more about in the next section. Michail Antonio is also a decent shout if you don’t already own. He recorded four shots inside the box, two big chances and one big chance...
... created in the two fixtures of the double GW. Those numbers are extremely encouraging and suggest that Antonio looks to be back to his absolute best. All 41 of his Premier League goals have come from inside the penalty area so he’s the definition of a true poacher. He has...
... a decent run of fixtures to follow too (cry LIV avl ful SHU). I’ve already spoken about Kane and as to why ideally, I wouldn’t want a Spurs double up with their fixtures coming up. The forgotten man, Dominic Calvert Lewin could be worth considering as well...
I wrote last week as to how his numbers had dropped off:

DCL (GW 1-11) v DCL (GW 12-17)

Mins per shot in the box 31.29 v 54.63
Mins per big chance 69.28 v 145.67
However, with the cavalry (James Rodriguez, Digne, Richarlison) all back and available, I think Calvert Lewin could be worth considering again. Rodriguez created eight big chances, including two big chances, in the FA Cup game and we know Calvert Lewin is a different beast...
... when chances are being supplied to him. He is one definitely worth keeping an eye on – particularly with a favorable run of fixtures coming up (LEI NEW lee mun FUL).
Q: What to do with Newcastle and Leeds assets – keep or sell?

Over the past four matches, Newcastle are ranked in the bottom two for xG, big chances and chances created which is a matter of serious concern for Callum Wilson’s owners. The Sheffield United fixture has been...
... the only game where Wilson has been able to register a big chance over the past six GWs, so his numbers have significantly declined. I’d be selling Wilson if I owned him. I also think this might be a good time for FPL managers who own Leeds defenders to play them as Leeds...
... will be coming on the back of a good amount of rest, so should be well set up in this one. I’d keep the likes of Patrick Bamford and Raphinha for this one – Leeds are ranked top for shots inside the box and chances created away from home this season while no team has...
... conceded more big chances than Newcastle over the past six matches. Bamford in particular I think should be good for a goal here, he’s on penalties and is second only to Vardy for the highest number of big chances in the league this season. Leeds failed to turn up for...
... the Brighton game but had been posting decent attacking numbers prior to that so I’d like to think that game was a statistical outlier. Rodrigo has been involved in just one of Leeds’ previous six big chances so his goal involvement rate is minimal and he tends to get...
... substituted early – there are far better forward options out there so I’d sell. Raphinha is another one on thin ice as his numbers aren’t great either, but his chance creation is still decent so I’d give him one more week.
Q: In this section, I analyze the reasons behind Souček’s successive blanks recorded in the double GW.

Souček with and without Antonio:

Mins per shot inside the box: 72 vs 61.8
Mins per big chance: 360 vs 198
Mins per penalty area touch: 36 vs 26.8
Not only have his numbers dropped off, but in both the double GWs Souček had a deeper average position than even Declan Rice which is worrying news for his owners. It is worth noting that Souček is yet to score in a game that Antonio has started this season. However, it's...
... important to note that the drop Souček's numbers might not just be down to Antonio. It could be because of a different formation without Masuaku and the fact that when Noble was playing, Souček was playing advanced but now is part of a midfield pivot which has...
... significantly reduced his open play threat. He failed to record a single shot in either of the games in the double GW. A lot of FPL managers own the likes of Coufal and Cresswell so my recommendation would be to play one of the West Ham defenders over Souček this week...
... West Ham are ranked only second to Man City for xG conceded over the past four matches, while Crystal Palace have failed to register even a single big chance during that period so chances of a West Ham clean sheet look bright.
Q: In this section, I talk about Arsenal’s assets.

Over the last four matches, Arsenal are ranked second based on their xG. Aubameyang can also be seen getting back to his best considering he’s top in midfielders for xG and xGi over the same period...
... Hence it is no surprise to see them score eight times in the last four matches. I now run a comparison to analyze their budget midfielders:
Saka vs Smith-Rowe (GW 15-19)

Shots inside the box: 11 vs 2
Big chances: 1 vs 1
Chances created: 9 vs 10
Big chances created: 2 vs 1
Penalty area touches: 22 vs 12
For their value, Saka and Smith-Rowe are both good options but if picking one of the two, Saka seems more preferable based on his attacking threat and an advanced average position. Arsenal now face SOT MUN wol avl over the next four GWs which are not...
... the easiest of fixtures – I would not recommend buying an Arsenal asset but if you own any of them, I’d feel safe keeping them considering their attacking threat.
Here is my Fantasy5 team for the week! Che Adams’ tends to do better with Ings in the team so he’s a decent shout this GW. Tielemans and Gündoğan are on penalties so there’s a good chance they are able to beat their fantasy targets of 4.5 and 6.5 points respectively as well.
This brings me to the end of the article. I would like to thank @urboihamza for helping me compile my piece this week. It would be nice if you could offer him some encouragement too (follows/feedback appreciated!).
If you are looking to follow my work, follow me at:

Twitter: https://t.co/oBvQzf7Dor

Instagram: https://t.co/1tZ92vBXIT

YouTube: https://t.co/mDw5fLXaAG

YouTube Patreon: https://t.co/VQGEYrnnpO

I await your feedback with anticipation!

More from AbuBakar Siddiq

AbuBakar Siddiq
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The Review: GW 11 - A thread

Hi everyone, welcome to “The Review” where I look back on the key numbers of GW 11 with a look ahead to GW 12:

#FPL #FPLCommunity @OfficialFPL

(Data taken from @FFScout and @FFH_HQ with consent)

1) Which Tottenham Hotspur assets are worth holding?

Another solid performance on both ends of the pitch saw Spurs earn bragging rights over Arsenal in the north London derby. Despite having tough fixtures Heung Min Son and Harry Kane have still been among the goals for Spurs...

... therefore it may be worth to have another look at how the duo have been performing and who would seem to be the better option to invest in:

Son (GW 1-8) vs Son (GW 9-11)

Mins per shot inside the box: 49.4 vs 267
Mins per big chance: 71.3 vs 267
Mins per big chance created: 214 vs 267
Avg. FPL points per game: 9.25 vs 8.67

Kane (GW 1-8) vs Kane (GW 9-11)

Mins per shot inside the box: 28.6 vs 270
Mins per big chance: 79.3 vs 90
Mins per big chance created: 89.3 vs 270
Avg. FPL points per game: 10 vs 6
SOCCER
AbuBakar Siddiq
AbuBakar Siddiq
@BigManBakar
The Review: GW 23 - A thread

Hi everyone, welcome to the latest edition of “The Review” where me and @urboihamza look ahead to the upcoming double GWs and chip strategies in detail:

#FPL #FPLCommunity @OfficialFPL

(Data taken from @FFScout and @FFH_HQ with consent)

Before I start, an update on the Fantasy5: There have been no winners for two consecutive GWs now, so I feel the organizers have been more sympathetic in setting targets yet again this week. This might be your best chance to win £10k! Link below:

At this point, I’d also like to mention that I post about FPL on my Instagram too, so if you have an Instagram account, do follow up here:

I’d like to dedicate this Review of mine to my dear friend Dylan who is an avid FPL player and a regular reader of my pieces. He is battling a brutal illness so my thoughts are with him and his family during these tough times – stay strong lil bro and good luck!

Q: What is the optimum strategy for FPL managers wildcarding sometime soon who do not have their Free Hit in hand?

I’d like to credit to @BenCrellin for his outstanding work helping to shed more clarity on the double GWs coming up. Southampton winning against Wolves...
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AbuBakar Siddiq
AbuBakar Siddiq
@BigManBakar
The Review: GW 21 - A thread

Hi everyone, welcome to the latest edition of “The Review” where I reflect on the happenings of GW 21 with a look ahead to GW 22:

#FPL #FPLCommunity @OfficialFPL

(Data taken from @FFScout and @FFH_HQ with consent)

I’d like to share that the Fantasy5 had another winner and have now paid out £20k within 5 days! It’s free to enter, a lot of fun and potentially very rewarding. All you have to do is to pick 5 players who you think will beat their predicted

At this point, I’d also like to mention that I post about FPL on my Instagram too, so if you have an Instagram account, follow up here!

Q: In this section, I analyze the impact of Harry Kane’s loss on Spurs attack.

I know the sample size is small but what’s worth noting is that Spurs have created just ∼0.48 xG in the 130 minutes of football played since Harry Kane has been injured. The eye test seems...

... to back this up – Spurs look lethargic and out of ideas and hence it is no surprise that they haven’t created a single big chance since Kane’s injury. Son was playing more centrally and was Spurs’ most advanced player on the field v Brighton...
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AbuBakar Siddiq
AbuBakar Siddiq
@BigManBakar
The Review: GW 12 - A thread

Hi everyone, welcome to the latest edition of “The Review” where I analyze the Premier League football played at the weekend:

#FPL #FPLCommunity @OfficialFPL

(Data taken from @FFScout and @FFH_HQ with consent)

Q: Who is the best differential striker?

A lot of FPL managers have sent in their questions regarding a differential striker this week as they see this as a way to make up some points over the condensed fixture schedule...

...Let us take a look at which of the following options are worth investing in:

Watkins vs Ings vs Ché Adams v Wood (this season)
Mins per shot inside the box: 39.1 vs 40 vs 57.5 vs 52
Mins per big chance: 81.8 vs 108.5 vs 172.5 vs 105
Mins per big chance created: 900 vs 760 vs 172.5 vs 941
xG: 5.72 vs 4.5 vs 3.62 vs 3.63

I think Watkins is the one who stands out here and given his fixtures (BUR wba CRY che mun), even without penalty duties he can represent good value. Considering that Villa are ranked first for shots inside the box and xG over the last six GWs, he’s an excellent pick...
SOCCER
AbuBakar Siddiq
AbuBakar Siddiq
@BigManBakar
The Review: GW 20 - A thread

Hi everyone, welcome to the latest edition of “The Review” where I look at the GW gone by and Kane replacements with an eye on the upcoming GW21:

#FPL #FPLCommunity @OfficialFPL

(Data taken from @FFScout and @FFH_HQ with consent)

Before I start, I'd like to introduce to you this game Fantasy5
that I play each GW. It's free to enter and all you have to do is pick 5 players to beat their Fantasy points target. It's very exciting and you have a chance to win £10k! Link

At this point, I’d also like to mention that I post about FPL on my Instagram too, so if you have an Instagram account, follow up here!

Q: In this section, I talk about Manchester City.

I first run a comparison between Man City’s midfielders from GW 13-20:

(read below)

Gündoğan V Foden v Bernardo v Sterling

Mins per chance created: 46 v 26 v 57 v 51
Mins per shots in the box: 38 v 32 v 81 v 41
Mins per big chance: 92 v 208 v 285 v 124
Mins per expected involvement: 149 v 179 v 278 v 122
GAMING

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1/18 After 3 months, @saffronfinance_ is no longer new on the scene. Now that the kid has climbed the ranks, it's time to see if he can hang with the big boys.

Below are some updated thoughts on potential integrations, improvements, and innovations for Saffron moving forward. ⬇️


2/18 First, if you haven't seen @Privatechad_'s alpha-leaking introductory thread, you should check it out.

I agree that @AlphaFinanceLab and @CreamdotFinance, specifically the Iron Bank, would be ideal targets for SFI risk tranches.


3/18 Speaking more broadly, Saffron is primarily integrated with @compoundfinance, which has served as a MVP of sorts.

The thing is, Compound is one of the safest (but also lowest yield) protocols in DeFi, so it's not surprising that there isn't much demand for the sen. tranche.


4/18 Expanding beyond Compound to higher-risk/higher-return protocols has always been key.

These protocols are the bread-and-butter target market for Saffron, and I would expect to see a surge in demand for senior tranche staking in these


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Neil Bananas Bharadwa \U0001f44a\U0001f3fd
Neil Bananas Bharadwa ...
@MrNeilB
Having made over 1000 boxes for vulnerable families in Cambridge via @RedHenCambridge (thanks to our customers 🙏🏽) My thoughts on the £30 box thing. Lots of factors at play here. 1/

If the pics in this @BootstrapCook thread are true and correct then the Govt/taxpayers & families in need are getting absolutely SHAFTED 👇🏽 2/


There are some mitigating circumstances. A £30 box won’t ever contain £30 (retail) worth of food - people aren’t factoring in
-the cost of the box
-paying someone to fill it
-rent & rates
-& most expensive the *transport/distribution*

3/

If you’re doing the above at scale. Delivering *across the UK* it’s not cheap BUT IMHO there should be at LEAST £20 worth of groceries in a £30 box. To get more value they need more fresh produce. Just carrots & apples is terrible. 4/

I’m gonna put my rep on the line here & say something about these big national catering companies whose names I’ve seen mentioned. They are an ASSHOLE to deal with & completely shaft small businesses like mine with their terms which is why I won’t deal with them. 5/
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Saturnalia "Ultimate Survivor" Sundown
Saturnalia "Ultimate S...
@SaturnaliaSund1
Hello friends, I am back! I have been doing a ton of financial research and am very disturbed by what I have learned.

Please enjoy a long (irresponsibly LONG) story about central banking, manufactured crises, George Soros, and the Great Reset.


This thred will be much longer and more dry than my usual, pls bear with me. This one's legit important. The first portion will reference works by Dr. Richard Werner, and the latter George Soros.


Note my views are not indicative of those of people quoted. This post does not constitute investment counsel.

To understand current financial conditions you bare minimum have to go back to WWII. Bretton Woods has just been signed, establishing the IMF and World Bank, and the USD as standard for international settlement.


But we're not talking about US history (yet), we have to look at Japan. Unlike Germany, which had it's economy stripped down and sold off by the victorious Allies, Japan's system remained remarkably intact.
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One reason the Left hates Rush so much is that he was so effective at skewering their pretensions to moral and intellectual superiority. He made it okay to laugh at them, to judge the failure of their policies without ritually celebrating their alleged good intentions.
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Vidya
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1/16
Was reading upon #Biases & learnt a lot. Thought of sharing a few pointers .
Simply put Bias is a disproportionate weight in favour of or against any idea/thing in all aspects of life.
Few types of Biases ( out of the many) with not so random images. :)
+

2/16
The #DunningKruger effect now is fairly well known , wherein people with limited knowledge overestimate their competence, whilst the actually knowledgeable question themselves often .
"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge".
+


3/16
*#SelfServingBias*
A very interesting bias wherein we credit our successes to purely ourselves, but when things go awry we cite luck & external forces .
Rings any bells?
Basically a defence mechanism to protect our self esteem & eventually from personal responsibility.


4/16
* #ConfirmationBias *
We all favour ideas & beliefs that affirm to our existing ones' , rarely being open to contradictory opinions .
(Especially in markets !! 😬) Why?

Laziness? Mental block? Ego ?
No wonder, Birds of a feather flock together ... 😉


5/16
* #SunkCostBias *
As we know, sunk costs are irrecoverable , regardless of outcomes. (Eg Money expended towards R&D for a molecule which doesn't work out)
But this actually extends in any investment we make - Time,Money, Effort, Relationships ...😏
Interesting right?
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Unconventional approach of 60-40 RSI and range shift concept.

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and whenever in a bullish trend,
it won’t be able to cross 40.

Like & Retweet for Maximum Reach.

So, instead of the 70-30 Relative Strength Index,
we will use the 60-40 range for the RSI indicator for this strategy.

When the
Monthly and Weekly RSI>60,
& when the RSI takes support at 40 in the daily chart,
it may bounce back and most probably it will not go below 40.

If a bullish candle is formed at the 40 RSI level,
the prices may bounce back, and one can enter the stock.

The stoploss can be placed at the low of that bullish candlestick,
and the target can be the 60 RSI level.

When the
Monthly and Weekly RSI<40,
& when the RSI takes resistance at 60 in the daily chart,
it may bounce back and most probably it will not go above 60

If a bearish candle is formed at the 60 RSI level,
the prices may bounce back from there, & 1 can enter the stock 4 shorting

The stoploss can be placed at the high of that bearish candlestick, and the target can be the 40 RSI levels.

#banknifty

This range shift concept can be applied in any timeframe,
whether intraday, daily,weekly, etc.
ALL
Steve Stewart-Williams
Steve Stewart-Williams
@SteveStuWill
THREAD: 12 Things Everyone Should Know About IQ

1. IQ is one of the most heritable psychological traits – that is, individual differences in IQ are strongly associated with individual differences in genes (at least in fairly typical modern environments). https://t.co/3XxzW9bxLE


2. The heritability of IQ *increases* from childhood to adulthood. Meanwhile, the effect of the shared environment largely fades away. In other words, when it comes to IQ, nature becomes more important as we get older, nurture less. https://t.co/UqtS1lpw3n


3. IQ scores have been increasing for the last century or so, a phenomenon known as the Flynn effect. https://t.co/sCZvCst3hw (N ≈ 4 million)

(Note that the Flynn effect shows that IQ isn't 100% genetic; it doesn't show that it's 100% environmental.)


4. IQ predicts many important real world outcomes.

For example, though far from perfect, IQ is the single-best predictor of job performance we have – much better than Emotional Intelligence, the Big Five, Grit, etc. https://t.co/rKUgKDAAVx https://t.co/DWbVI8QSU3


5. Higher IQ is associated with a lower risk of death from most causes, including cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, most forms of cancer, homicide, suicide, and accident. https://t.co/PJjGNyeQRA (N = 728,160)
LIFE
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Suhail
Suhail
@Suhail
1/ The first 18 months of starting a company is often life or death. I must've made 5 different companies that each failed within 9 mo. 😭 Each time the company failed I figured out what I could do better. Eventually startup #6 got to $40K/mo by month 18. Here’s what I learned...

2/ Stay focused! Ignore things that are a waste of time: meetups & conferences, meetings with no clear agenda, fundraising if you're not fundraising, reading lots of tech media articles, etc. Every week should feel like significant progress in the first year.

3/ Your first 5 hires will be the difference between life or death. Choose carefully. Be picky. Many of the things we do at the company still are a result of those early hires' legacy. Have fun as a tight knit team. It will change & evolve as you get bigger so enjoy this moment.

4/ Growth may be flat for the first 9 months. It's gonna be okay. Almost every company has experienced this: Airbnb had to sell cereal in-between, Slack failed as a gaming company first, Tesla sold only 147 cars after 6 years! You probably won't be an overnight success either.

5/ In the beginning, do customer support yourself. You will learn a lot about why your product sucks. I did 5,000+ support tickets when it was the two of us. Delight customers & fix things fast while you learn. It will help you build an amazing intuition about your customers.
STARTUPS
Aditya Todmal
Aditya Todmal
@AdityaTodmal
MASTER THREAD on Short Strangles.

Curated the best tweets from the best traders who are exceptional at managing strangles.

• Positional Strangles
• Intraday Strangles
• Position Sizing
• How to do Adjustments
• Plenty of Examples
• When to avoid
• Exit Criteria

How to sell Strangles in weekly expiry as explained by boss himself. @Mitesh_Engr

• When to sell
• How to do Adjustments
• Exit


Beautiful explanation on positional option selling by @Mitesh_Engr
Sir on how to sell low premium strangles yourself without paying anyone. This is a free mini course in


1st Live example of managing a strangle by Mitesh Sir. @Mitesh_Engr

• Sold Strangles 20% cap used
• Added 20% cap more when in profit
• Booked profitable leg and rolled up
• Kept rolling up profitable leg
• Booked loss in calls
• Sold only


2nd example by @Mitesh_Engr Sir on converting a directional trade into strangles. Option Sellers can use this for consistent profit.

• Identified a reversal and sold puts

• Puts decayed a lot

• When achieved 2% profit through puts then sold
OPTIONSLEARNINGS , ALL , OPTIONS STRATEGY
Nicolas Cole
Nicolas Cole
@Nicolascole77
🚢 Atomic Essays Republishing Framework 🚢

1. Write Atomic Essay
2. Post image on Twitter
3. (Bonus) Copy/paste text as thread
4. Find relevant Question on Quora. Copy/paste Atomic Essay + image.
5. Copy/paste again on Medium.
6. Again on LinkedIn
7. Win

Guide below ✍️🚢👇

Step 1: Write Atomic Essay

I really enjoy writing right inside the Figma template. It helps give me a good sense of exactly how much "real estate" I have/have left before my time us up and I'm out of space.

Once finished, I export the image and send to my phone on Slack.


Step 2: Post image on Twitter

Before I publish my Atomic Essay on Twitter, I use the Edit/Photo Markup function on the iPhone to highlight standout sentences.

These are usually power-phrases: things the reader skims and thinks, "That's interesting," prompting them to read more.


Step 3: For the Ship 30 for 30 challenge, I only turn Atomic Essays into threads if...

1. The piece is SUPER actionable and lends itself well to the thread format (lots of bullets, quick points, lists, etc.)

or...

2. I'm referencing research and want to link to the pieces.

Step 4: Find relevant Question on Quora. Copy/paste Atomic Essay + image.

Search on Quora around the topic you wrote about. Find a related Question. Copy/paste the whole Atomic Essay as your "answer" (& fix formatting). Then include image so it appears in the thumbnail.
WRITING