Dear Colleagues,
With just one week remaining before the winter break, we are all looking forward more than ever to a couple of weeks of respite from the intense duties of teaching, which are even more overwhelming in pandemic times. 1/
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More from Education
New from me:
I’m launching my Forecasting For SEO course next month.
It’s everything I’ve learned, tried and tested about SEO forecasting.
The course: https://t.co/bovuIns9OZ
Following along 👇
Why forecasting?
Last year I launched https://t.co/I6osuvrGAK to provide reliable forecasts to SEO teams.
It went crazy.
I also noticed an appetite for learning more about forecasting and reached out on Twitter to gauge interest:
The interest encouraged me to make a start...
I’ve also been inspired by what others are doing: @tom_hirst, @dvassallo and @azarchick 👏👏
And their guts to be build so openly in public.
So here goes it...
In the last 2 years I’ve only written 3 blog posts on my site.
- Probabilistic thinking in SEO
- Rethinking technical SEO audits
- How to deliver better SEO strategies.
I only write when I feel like I’ve got something to say.
With forecasting, I’ve got something to say. 💭
There are mixed feelings about forecasting in the SEO industry.
Uncertainty is everywhere. Algorithm updates impacting rankings, economic challenges impacting demand.
It’s difficult. 😩
I’m launching my Forecasting For SEO course next month.
It’s everything I’ve learned, tried and tested about SEO forecasting.
The course: https://t.co/bovuIns9OZ
Following along 👇
Why forecasting?
Last year I launched https://t.co/I6osuvrGAK to provide reliable forecasts to SEO teams.
It went crazy.
I also noticed an appetite for learning more about forecasting and reached out on Twitter to gauge interest:
The interest encouraged me to make a start...
I’ve also been inspired by what others are doing: @tom_hirst, @dvassallo and @azarchick 👏👏
And their guts to be build so openly in public.
So here goes it...
In the last 2 years I’ve only written 3 blog posts on my site.
- Probabilistic thinking in SEO
- Rethinking technical SEO audits
- How to deliver better SEO strategies.
I only write when I feel like I’ve got something to say.
With forecasting, I’ve got something to say. 💭
There are mixed feelings about forecasting in the SEO industry.
Uncertainty is everywhere. Algorithm updates impacting rankings, economic challenges impacting demand.
It’s difficult. 😩
Our preprint on the impact of reopening schools on reproduction number in England is now available online: https://t.co/CpfUGzAJ2S. With @Jarvis_Stats @amyg225 @kerrylmwong @KevinvZandvoort @sbfnk + John Edmunds. NOT YET PEER REVIEWED. 1/
We used contact survey data collected by CoMix (https://t.co/ezbCIOgRa1) to quantify differences in contact patterns during November (Schools open) and January (Schools closed) 'Lockdown periods'. NOT YET PEER REVIEWED 2/
We combined this analysis with estimates of susceptibility and infectiousness of children relative to adults from literature. We also inferred relative susceptibility by fitting R estimates from CoMix to EpiForecasts estimates(https://t.co/6lUM2wK0bn). NOT YET PEER REVIEWED 3/
We estimated that reopening all schools would increase R by between 20% to 90% whereas reopening primary or secondary schools alone would increase R by 10% to 40%, depending on the infectiousness/susceptibility profile we used. NOT YET PEER REVIEWED 4/
Assuming a current R of 0.8 (in line with Govt. estimates: https://t.co/ZZhCe79zC4). Reopening all schools would increase R to between 1.0 and 1.5 and reopening either primary or secondary schools would increase R to between 0.9 and 1.2. NOT YET PEER REVIEWED 5/
We used contact survey data collected by CoMix (https://t.co/ezbCIOgRa1) to quantify differences in contact patterns during November (Schools open) and January (Schools closed) 'Lockdown periods'. NOT YET PEER REVIEWED 2/
We combined this analysis with estimates of susceptibility and infectiousness of children relative to adults from literature. We also inferred relative susceptibility by fitting R estimates from CoMix to EpiForecasts estimates(https://t.co/6lUM2wK0bn). NOT YET PEER REVIEWED 3/
We estimated that reopening all schools would increase R by between 20% to 90% whereas reopening primary or secondary schools alone would increase R by 10% to 40%, depending on the infectiousness/susceptibility profile we used. NOT YET PEER REVIEWED 4/
Assuming a current R of 0.8 (in line with Govt. estimates: https://t.co/ZZhCe79zC4). Reopening all schools would increase R to between 1.0 and 1.5 and reopening either primary or secondary schools would increase R to between 0.9 and 1.2. NOT YET PEER REVIEWED 5/
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1/ Here’s a list of conversational frameworks I’ve picked up that have been helpful.
Please add your own.
2/ The Magic Question: "What would need to be true for you
3/ On evaluating where someone’s head is at regarding a topic they are being wishy-washy about or delaying.
“Gun to the head—what would you decide now?”
“Fast forward 6 months after your sabbatical--how would you decide: what criteria is most important to you?”
4/ Other Q’s re: decisions:
“Putting aside a list of pros/cons, what’s the *one* reason you’re doing this?” “Why is that the most important reason?”
“What’s end-game here?”
“What does success look like in a world where you pick that path?”
5/ When listening, after empathizing, and wanting to help them make their own decisions without imposing your world view:
“What would the best version of yourself do”?
Please add your own.
2/ The Magic Question: "What would need to be true for you
1/\u201cWhat would need to be true for you to\u2026.X\u201d
— Erik Torenberg (@eriktorenberg) December 4, 2018
Why is this the most powerful question you can ask when attempting to reach an agreement with another human being or organization?
A thread, co-written by @deanmbrody: https://t.co/Yo6jHbSit9
3/ On evaluating where someone’s head is at regarding a topic they are being wishy-washy about or delaying.
“Gun to the head—what would you decide now?”
“Fast forward 6 months after your sabbatical--how would you decide: what criteria is most important to you?”
4/ Other Q’s re: decisions:
“Putting aside a list of pros/cons, what’s the *one* reason you’re doing this?” “Why is that the most important reason?”
“What’s end-game here?”
“What does success look like in a world where you pick that path?”
5/ When listening, after empathizing, and wanting to help them make their own decisions without imposing your world view:
“What would the best version of yourself do”?