Lindy Effect 101
With Bitcoin's return to the spotlight, debates on its long-term viability are raging. Its proponents contend @nntaleb's Lindy Effect says the technology is here to stay.
But what is the "Lindy Effect" and how does it work?
Here's Lindy Effect 101!
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1/ First, a few definitions.
The Lindy Effect is a theory that the future life expectancy of specific non-perishable items, like a technology or idea, is proportional to their age.
Put simply, the longer it has already lasted, the higher the likelihood it will continue to last.
2/ The term "Lindy effect" is a reference to Lindy's, a New York deli frequented by comedians in the 1960s.
While author Albert Goldman used the term "Lindy's Law" in a 1964 article, it was mathematician Benoit Mandlebrot who moved the dialogue towards the current definition.
3/ In his book, entitled The Fractal Geometry of Nature, Mandlebrot commented that the more stage appearances a Lindy's comedian made, the more future appearances he could be predicted to make.
The longer he lasted, the longer he would continue to last.
4/ @nntaleb built upon Mandelbrot's work, formally coining the term "Lindy Effect" in his book, Antifragile.
He noted the Lindy Effect with books - the longer a book has been in print, the longer it is likely to survive.
With no natural upper bound, power laws come into play.
